Future harvesting pressure on European forests

We provide quantitative insight in the spatial distribution of the future supply of wood as a raw material from European forests (27 countries) until 2060. This supply is tested for two scenarios: `projection of historical management¿ and `new management trends¿ and compared against a benchmark scenario. The new management trends scenario incorporates influences of issues as nature-oriented management, carbon credits and increased demand for bio-energy. The results of these projections provide insight in the state of the European forests and indicate that under the `new management trends¿ supply can still increase to 729 million m3 by 2060 in Europe, whereby almost throughout Europe we allow harvest to be higher than increment for some time. Without linking countries dynamically through international trade, we identify regions where harvesting pressure is highest. Under the new management trends scenario, the harvested volume is reduced with 82 million m3/year (compared to `projection of historical management¿) because of stricter management constraints. However, the management regimes as parameterised here allow harvesting pressure to remain highest in Central Europe and some Scandinavian countries, notably Finland and Norwa

Outlook for the development of European forest resources; a study prepared for the European Forest Sector Outlook Study (EFSOS)

This Outlook for the Development of European Forest Resources provides the methodologies, data, scenarios, and results of the outlook on the European forest resources from 2000 to 2040. The aim of this forest resource study was to analyse the impacts on the European forest resources under the level of fellings needed to fulfil the derived roundwood demand according to two scenarios as provided by the market modelling project within the EFSOS framework. Thus fellings and removals presented in this study cannot be identified with a wood supply forecast in economic terms. The study includes the forest available for wood supply (FAWS) in geographical Europe, i.e. from Ireland to the Ural mountains and from the northern tip of Lapland to the southern border of Turkey. The model outcomes are based on assumptions about the increase in FAWS as well as unchanged forest management regimes (e.g. rotation period, thinning intensity, afforestation), and growth of stands ratios between felling and removals over the analysed period. Although removals are assumed to rise significantly, the results as presented sketch large and increasing forest resources in Europe. The growing stock increases under the baseline scenario from 51 billion m3 o.b. to 63 billion m3 o.b. in 2040, whereas the net annual increment declines only slightly from the current 1.2 billion m3 o.b o.b to 1.15 billion m3 o.b. in 2040. The FAWS area is assumed to decrease from 335 million ha to 329 million ha by the year 2040, in the base scenario. In the alternative scenario the forest area is expected to increase to 343 million ha. The market model outcomes projected a fast increase in required fellings in the current outlook study. This demand for fellings on FAWS is foreseen to increase from 643 million m3 o.b. per year in 2000 to 847 million m3 o.b. per year in 2020 in the baseline scenario (1014 million m3 o.b. per year in the alternative). This, together with an approach that dynamically simulates age class development, shows that annual availability of roundwood may be hampered after 2020. In the baseline scenario the actual fellings in 2036-2040 were about 2% lower than the required fellings, whereas in the alternative scenario the difference was about 11% per year. In reality market mechanisms will take care of this difference, by adjusting prices, forestry management and especially trade, considering the legal restriction, which assure sustainable forestry management. These adjustments cannot be simulated with the current modelling system

Future wood supply from European forests; implications for the pulp and paper industry

The aim of this study is to provide quantitative insight into future actual supply of wood as a raw material (between 2005 and 2060) from European forests (36 countries). To do so, the degree to which apparent demand can be met is quantified with a forest resource model (resulting in the actual supply). This actual supply is tested for two sets of management regimes: ‘projection of historical management’ and ‘new management trends’. The results indicate that if new trends in forest management and supply behaviour continue to develop as in the recent past, an additional theoretical shortfall of 195 million m3 roundwood per year can be expected by 2060 in 36 European countries. The European part of Russia is not able to reduce the shortfall, because of its own demand developing. These shortfalls have to be understood as theoretical shortfalls; they visualise what may happen if no market adaptations occur in the future. Under this projected shortfall, the total growing stock in European forests (incl. European part of Russia) still increases from 51 billion m3 in 2005 to 62 billion m3 in 206