Techniques, advances, problems and issues in numerical modelling of landslide hazard

Slope movements (e.g. landslides) are dynamic systems that are complex in time and space and closely linked to both inherited and current preparatory and triggering controls. It is not yet possible to assess in all cases conditions for failure, reactivation and rapid surges and successfully simulate their transient and multi-dimensional behaviour and development, although considerable progress has been made in isolating many of the key variables and elementary mechanisms and to include them in physically-based models for landslide hazard assessments. Therefore, the objective of this paper is to review the state-of-the-art in the understanding of landslide processes and to identify some pressing challenges for the development of our modelling capabilities in the forthcoming years for hazard assessment. This paper focuses on the special nature of slope movements and the difficulties related to simulating their complex time-dependent behaviour in mathematical, physically-based models. It analyses successively the research frontiers in the recognition of first-time failures (pre-failure and failure stages), reactivation and the catastrophic transition to rapid gravitational processes (post-failure stage). Subsequently, the paper discusses avenues to transfer local knowledge on landslide activity to landslide hazard forecasts on regional scales and ends with an outline how geomorphological investigations and supporting monitoring techniques could be applied to improve the theoretical concepts and the modelling performance of physically-based landslide models at different spatial and temporal scales

Modelling the role of material depletion, grain coarsening and revegetation in debris flow occurrences after the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake

A large amount of debris was generated by the co-seismic mass wasting associated with the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake. The abundance of this loose material along the slopes caused more frequent debris flows, triggered by less intense and/or shorter rainfalls. However, both the triggering rainfall and the debris flow frequency seem to have normalised progressively during the past decade. Although changes of rainfall thresholds for post-seismic debris flows were recorded after several major earthquakes, the factors controlling these changes remain poorly constrained. With the aid of a virtual experiment, we investigate the roles of material depletion, grain coarsening and revegetation of the co-seismic debris on the propagation and deposition of debris flows initiated by runoff, as well as their influence on the triggering rainfall thresholds. We employ a Geographic Information System (GIS)-based simulation of debris flow initiation by runoff erosion, which we first calibrate on the 14th August 2010 Hongchun gully event that occurred near the Wenchuan earthquake epicentre. We obtain, by investigating each of the aforementioned processes, changing critical rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for given debris flow runout distances. Grain coarsening appears to play a major role, which is consistent with published laboratory experiments, while material depletion and revegetation do not seem able to account alone for the actual quick decay of debris flow frequency. While the virtual experiment has proven useful in identifying the first-order controls on this decay, model improvements and verification over multiple catchments are needed to make the results useful in hazard assessments

Diagnostic yield and accuracy of CT angiography, MR angiography, and digital subtraction angiography for detection of macrovascular causes of intracerebral haemorrhage: Prospective, multicentre cohort study

Study question What are the diagnostic yield and accuracy of early computed tomography (CT) angiography followed by magnetic resonance imaging/angiography (MRI/MRA) and digital subtraction angiography (DSA) in patients with non-traumatic intracerebral haemorrhage? Methods This prospective diagnostic study enrolled 298 adults (18-70 years) treated in 22 hospitals in the Netherlands over six years. CT angiography was performed within seven days of haemorrhage. If the result was negative, MRI/MRA was performed four to eight weeks later. DSA was performed when the CT angiography or MRI/MRA results were inconclusive or negative. The main outcome was a macrovascular cause, including arteriovenous malformation, aneurysm, dural arteriovenous fistula, and cavernoma. Three blinded neuroradiologists independently evaluated the images for macrovascular causes of haemorrhage. The reference standard was the best available evidence from all findings during one year's follow-up. Study answer and limitations A macrovascular cause was identified in 69 patients (23%). 291 patients (98%) underwent CT angiography; 214 with a negative result underwent additional MRI/MRA and 97 with a negative result for both CT angiography and MRI/MRA underwent DSA. Early CT angiography detected 51 macrovascular causes (yield 17%, 95% confidence interval 13% to 22%). CT angiography with MRI/MRA identified two additional macrovascular causes (18%, 14% to 23%) and these modalities combined with DSA another 15 (23%, 18% to 28%). This last extensive strategy failed to detect a cavernoma, which was identified on MRI during follow-up (reference strategy). The positive predictive value of CT angiography was 72% (60% to 82%), of additional MRI/MRA was 35% (14% to 62%), and of additional DSA was 100% (75% to 100%). None of the patients experienced complications with CT angiography or MRI/MRA; 0.6% of patients who underwent DSA experienced p

Unravelling the multiphase run-out conditions of a slide- flow mass movement

In this paper an attempt is made to unravel the run-out characteristics of a mass movement in the Sichuan Province, SW China by means of 1D numerical modelling and calibration on the topography of run-out profiles.The Dagou mass movement started as a rockslide with an initial volume of 480,000m3, which transformed into a debris flow, increasing in volume due to entrainment of loose material in the upper part of the travelling track. The rapid mass movement had a run-out distance of 1380 m and a run-out time of about 50 s. Numerical calculations were conducted with the depth average shallow water equation to explain the variation in thickness of the debris flowdeposits along the run-out track. For the calibration of the first run-out phase, three rheologicalmodels were applied, namely the Bingham, Voellmy and Quadratic rheology. Calibrationwas done on 1) the run-out distance, 2) the run-out time and 3) the goodness of fit with the thickness of the deposits along the track. In addition the erosion constant in the entrainment equation was calibrated on the observed versus calculated run-out volumes. Sensitivity analyses of the resistance parameters for the different rheologies showed that the viscosity, the basal friction, the turbulence term and the resistance factor are the most sensitive ones. It appeared that the variation in thickness along the run-out track can be explained by entrainment of material in the upper part of the track and a change in parametric values during the run-out process. The three rheologies produced a reasonable fit with the observed geometry of the run-out profile, run-out time and run-out volume. It was argued that the Voellmy rheology seems to give the most appropriate explanation for the difference in resistance along the run-out path. The main problem in the simulation was to stop the debris flow on a slope with a gradient around 22°. A reactivation of the mass movement by frictional sliding of the material halfway the run-out track was simulated. It occurred 30 min after the first run-out phase due to an increase in pore pressure. The sliding material changed into a slow flowing mass that reached a newly built up area after about 1 h and moved into Wangong Town over a distance of 80 m

The Development of a 1-D Integrated Hydro-Mechanical Model Based on Flume Tests to Unravel Different Hydrological Triggering Processes of Debris Flows

Many studies which try to analyze conditions for debris flow development ignore the type of initiation. Therefore, this paper deals with the following questions: What type of hydro-mechanical triggering mechanisms for debris flows can we distinguish in upstream channels of debris flow prone gullies? Which are the main parameters controlling the type and temporal sequence of these triggering processes, and what is their influence on the meteorological thresholds for debris flow initiation? A series of laboratory experiments were carried out in a flume 8 m long and with a width of 0.3 m to detect the conditions for different types of triggering mechanisms. The flume experiments show a sequence of hydrological processes triggering debris flows, namely erosion and transport by intensive overland flow and by infiltrating water causing failure of channel bed material. On the basis of these experiments, an integrated hydro-mechanical model was developed, which describes Hortonian and saturation overland flow, maximum sediment transport, through flow and failure of bed material. The model was calibrated and validated using process indicator values measured during the experiments in the flume. Virtual model simulations carried out in a schematic hypothetical source area of a catchment show that slope angle and hydraulic conductivity of the bed material determine the type and sequence of these triggering processes. It was also clearly demonstrated that the type of hydrological triggering process and the influencing geometrical and hydro-mechanical parameters may have a great influence on rainfall intensity-duration threshold curves for the start of debris flows

The long-term geologic hazards in areas struck by large-magnitude earthquakes

Large-magnitude earthquakes occur every year, but most hit remote and uninhabited regions and thus go unnoticed. Although populated areas are affected infrequently by large earthquakes, each time the outcomes are devastating in terms of life and property loss. The human and economic costs of natural hazards are on the rise as population growth pushes into high-risk areas,which leads to increased exposure to potentially disastrous geologic events

Numerical modelling of the run-out of a muddy debris-flow. The effect of rheology on velocity and deposit thickness along the run-out track

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