L’instabilité des motivations de l’incendie criminel dans le secteur résidentiel à Montréal

Étant donné la diversité des motivations des incendiaires, l’étude empirique de l’incendie criminel est particulièrement ardue. À cette difficulté s’ajoute le fait que les motivations économiques des incendiaires sont instables si elles sont sensibles à l’évolution du contexte socio-économique. Si cette hypothèse est vraie, les déterminants de l’incendie criminel différeraient, par exemple, selon que l’on se trouve en période d’expansion ou de récession.Sans développer un modèle théorique pouvant servir à déterminer de façon précise les motivations économiques de l’incendie criminel à travers les différentes phases du cycle économique, nous cherchons d’abord à convaincre le lecteur de la pertinence de tenir compte de ce phénomène d’instabilité dans toute étude sur l’incendie criminel. Nous tentons ensuite de définir l’importance relative de ces motivations et d’en tester la stabilité au cours des différentes phases du cycle économique.À notre connaissance, les études antérieures sur l’incendie criminel ont toutes négligé de tenir compte de l’instabilité des motivations économiques pouvant être reliée aux aléas du cycle économique. Notre étude a des implications importantes pour les compagnies d’assurances et les chercheurs qui tentent souvent d’évaluer les risques d’incendies à partir de séries chronologiques. Nos résultats suggèrent en effet qu’une telle approche peut conduire à des conclusions erronées et pourrait ainsi expliquer pourquoi les résultats des diverses enquêtes empiriques sur l’incendie criminel ne concordent pas ou sont tout simplement non concluants.The empirical investigation of arson is a particularly difficult task because of the diversity of its motivations. Moreover, in the case of arson for profits, motivations could very well be unstable if they are sensitive to fluctuations in the socio-economic environment. If this hypothesis is true, the determinants of arson would differ, for example, according to whether one finds himself in a recession or in an expansion.Without developing a theoretical model to determine in a precise fashion the economic motivations behind arson, we first try to convince the reader of the importance to take this instability phenomenon into account when studying arson. We then try to define the relative importance of these motivations across different stages of the economic cycle and to test their stability over time.To our knowledge, previous studies on arson have neglected to take into account the instability of economic motivations within the business cycle. Our study has important implications for insurance companies and researchers which often try to estimate arson risk from time-series data. Indeed, our results suggest that such an approach could lead to misleading conclusions as we find that the effect of economic motivations on the frequency of arson varies over time. Moreover, this could explain why the results of the different empirical studies on arson are often contradictory or inconclusive

Étude de certains déterminants des incendies volontaires à Montréal

Research into the determining factors in arson cases has traditionally focused on factors linked to the characteristics of the burned building. One of our basic hypotheses is that deliberately set fires also have an underlying economic motivation.In this case, the present study confirms the hypothesis that there appears to be an indisputable link between the unemployment rate and mortgage burdens and arson rates, regardless of the phase of the economic cycle in which the arson occurs.Moreover, the study corroborates the idea that increased surveillance is necessary in areas presenting a higher risk of fraud and having a specific socioeconomic and financial profile. A lower incidence of arson and the improvement of insurers ' ability to predict losses due to arson could lead to a significant reduction in the number of claims, and consequently, in the amount of premiums.By looking more specifically at the economic motivations influencing arson throughout the different phases of the economic cycle, this study evokes the establisment of a forecasting system that would allow insurance companies to identify the areas of Montreal that present a higher risk level for arson, thus allowing them to establish their rates in a more equitable manner

L’instabilité des motivations de l’incendie criminel dans le secteur résidentiel à Montréal

The empirical investigation of arson is a particularly difficult task because of the diversity of its motivations. Moreover, in the case of arson for profits, motivations could very well be unstable if they are sensitive to fluctuations in the socio-economic environment. If this hypothesis is true, the determinants of arson would differ, for example, according to whether one finds himself in a recession or in an expansion. Étant donné la diversité des motivations des incendiaires, l’étude empirique de l’incendie criminel est particulièrement ardue. À cette difficulté s’ajoute le fait que les motivations économiques des incendiaires sont instables si elles sont sensibles à l’évolution du contexte socio-économique. Si cette hypothèse est vraie, les déterminants de l’incendie criminel différeraient, par exemple, selon que l’on se trouve en période d’expansion ou de récession.

The weight of phonetic substance in the structure of sound inventories

In the research field initiated by Lindblom & Liljencrants in 1972, we illustrate the possibility of giving substance to phonology, predicting the structure of phonological systems with nonphonological principles, be they listener-oriented (perceptual contrast and stability) or speaker-oriented (articulatory contrast and economy). We proposed for vowel systems the Dispersion-Focalisation Theory (Schwartz et al., 1997b). With the DFT, we can predict vowel systems using two competing perceptual constraints weighted with two parameters, respectively λ and α. The first one aims at increasing auditory distances between vowel spectra (dispersion), the second one aims at increasing the perceptual salience of each spectrum through formant proximities (focalisation). We also introduced new variants based on research in physics - namely, phase space (λ,α) and polymorphism of a given phase, or superstructures in phonological organisations (Vallée et al., 1999) which allow us to generate 85.6% of 342 UPSID systems from 3- to 7-vowel qualities. No similar theory for consonants seems to exist yet. Therefore we present in detail a typology of consonants, and then suggest ways to explain plosive vs. fricative and voiceless vs. voiced consonants predominances by i) comparing them with language acquisition data at the babbling stage and looking at the capacity to acquire relatively different linguistic systems in relation with the main degrees of freedom of the articulators; ii) showing that the places “preferred” for each manner are at least partly conditioned by the morphological constraints that facilitate or complicate, make possible or impossible the needed articulatory gestures, e.g. the complexity of the articulatory control for voicing and the aerodynamics of fricatives. A rather strict coordination between the glottis and the oral constriction is needed to produce acceptable voiced fricatives (Mawass et al., 2000). We determine that the region where the combinations of Ag (glottal area) and Ac (constriction area) values results in a balance between the voice and noise components is indeed very narrow. We thus demonstrate that some of the main tendencies in the phonological vowel and consonant structures of the world’s languages can be explained partly by sensorimotor constraints, and argue that actually phonology can take part in a theory of Perception-for-Action-Control

Combining Model-Based Design (MBD) and Model-Based Testing (MBT) for early validation of embedded real-time systems

International audienceThis paper describes an approach combining Model-Based Engineering (MBE) and Model-Based Testing, and its application to requirements validation for an embedded Instrumentation & Control (I&C) system. Many aspects of the embedded system can thus be validated early in the lifecycle, long before an actual implementation is developed, and, most importantly, requirements can be validated before the system is implemented. A flexible integration environment makes it possible to reuse the test cases throughout the lifecycle. This approach is being implemented in the CONNEXION R&D project, using Esterel Technologies’ SCADE Suite and All4tec’s MaTeLo, with Corys’ ALICES as an integration environment

Le rôle et la fonction des ports de petite et moyenne taille dans le système Saint-Laurent

Les études des grands ports dominent la recherche sur le transport maritime. Les ports de petite et moyenne taille sont généralement ignorés ou analysés de façon marginale. Cet article tente de corriger cette lacune. Les pages qui suivent reposent sur une recherche entreprise sur les ports du Québec. Nous analysons la contribution de 28 ports de petite et moyenne taille au commerce maritime du Québec. Nous explorons ensuite les diverses contributions qu'ils offrent à cette activité en identifiant nombre d'importantes fonctions qu'ils occupent. L'article discute enfin certaines des implications liées aux rôles que jouent ces ports sur le plan de leurs contributions aux économies locales et régionales, de leurs besoins en équipements et de leur juridiction administrative.Studies of large ports dominate research in maritime transportation. The small and medium size ports are usually ignored or are dealt with only in passing. This paper attempts to redress the imbalance. It draws upon research being carried out on Québec's ports. We analyse the contribution of 28 small and medium size ports to the maritime trade of Québec. We then explore the diverse contributions they make to this activity, identifying a number of important functional niches they occupy. The paper goes on to discuss some of the implications of the roles played by the ports in terms of their contributions to local and regional economies, facilities requirements, and administrative jurisdiction

Les considérations portuaires dans la planification régionale du Québec

Cet article analyse l'importance accordée aux ports de petite et moyenne taille par les représentants des municipalités régionales de comté. Les 43 schémas d'aménagement des MRC riveraines du Saint-Laurent, du Saguenay et de la baie des Chaleurs furent soumis à l'analyse de contenu. Cette démarche permet d'évaluer l'importance du transport maritime au Québec et plus particulièrement le rôle des ports de petite et moyenne taille dans la planification régionale québécoise sous cinq volets reliés aux activités portuaires : position du port, juridiction des infrastructures portuaires, trafic maritime, liens intermodaux, activités économiques et utilisation du sol.This article analyzes the importance given to small and medium size ports by authorities of the regional county municipalities. The 43 planning schemes of the regional county municipalities bordering the St. Lawrence River, the Saguenay River and the Chaleur Bay were submitted to a content analysis. This approach allows an evaluation of the importance of maritime transport in Québec and more particularly of the role of small and medium size ports in Québec's regional planning under five themes related to port activities : the position of ports, the jurisdiction of port infrastructures, the maritime traffic, the intermodal links, the economic activities and land use

Analysis of splicing patterns by pyrosequencing

Several different mRNAs can be produced from a given pre-mRNA by regulated alternative splicing, or as the result of deregulations that may lead to pathological states. Analysing splicing patterns is therefore of importance to describe and understand developmental programs, cellular responses to internal or external cues, or human diseases. We describe here a method, Pyrosequencing Analysis of Splicing Patterns (PASP), that combines RT–PCR and pyrosequencing of PCR products. We demonstrated that: (i) Ratios of two pure RNAs mixed in various proportions were accurately measured by PASP; (ii) PASP can be adapted to virtually any splicing event, including mutually exclusive exons, complex patterns of exon skipping or inclusion, and alternative 3′ terminal exons; (iii) In extracts from different organs, the proportions of RNA isoforms measured by PASP reflected those measured by other methods. The PASP method is therefore reliable for analysing splicing patterns. All steps are done in 96-wells microplates, without gel electrophoresis, opening the way to high-throughput comparisons of RNA from several sources

Représentations cérébrales des articulateurs de la parole

National audienceIn order to localize cerebral regions involved in articulatory control processes, ten subjects were examined using functional magnetic resonance imaging while executing lip, tongue and jaw movements. Although the three motor tasks activated a set of common brain areas classically involved in motor control, distinct movement representation sites were found in the motor cortex. These results support and extend previous brain imaging studies by demonstrating a sequential dorsoventral somatotopic organization of lips, jaw and tongue in the motor cortex

Cine and tagged cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging in normal rat at 1.5 T: a rest and stress study

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to measure regional contractile function in the normal rat using cardiac cine and tagged cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) during incremental low doses of dobutamine and at rest. METHODS: Five rats were investigated for invasive left ventricle pressure measurements and five additional rats were imaged on a clinical 1.5 T MR system using a cine sequence (11-20 phases per cycle, 0.28/0.28/2 mm) and a C-SPAMM tag sequence (18-25 phases per cycle, 0.63/1.79/3 mm, tag spacing 1.25 mm). For each slice, wall thickening (WT) and circumferential strains (CS) were calculated at rest and at stress (2.5, 5 and 10 microg/min/kg of dobutamine). RESULTS: Good cine and tagged images were obtained in all the rats even at higher heart rate (300-440 bpm). Ejection fraction and left ventricular (LV) end-systolic volume showed significant changes after each dobutamine perfusion dose (p < 0.001). Tagged CMR had the capacity to resolve the CS transmural gradient and showed a significant increase of both WT and CS at stress compared to rest. Intra and interobserver study showed less variability for the tagged technique. In rats in which a LV catheter was placed, dobutamine produced a significant increase of heart rate, LV dP/dtmax and LV pressure significantly already at the lowest infusion dose. CONCLUSION: Robust cardiac cine and tagging CMR measurements can be obtained in the rat under incremental dobutamine stress using a clinical 1.5 T MR scanner