Design and analysis of randomized clinical trials requiring prolonged observation of each patient. I. Introduction and design.

The Medical Research Council has for some years encouraged collaborative clinical trials in leukaemia and other cancers, reporting the results in the medical literature. One unreported result which deserves such publication is the development of the expertise to design and analyse such trials. This report was prepared by a group of British and American statisticians, but it is intended for people without any statistical expertise. Part I, which appears in this issue, discusses the design of such trials; Part II, which will appear separately in the January 1977 issue of the Journal, gives full instructions for the statistical analysis of such trials by means of life tables and the logrank test, including a worked example, and discusses the interpretation of trial results, including brief reports of 2 particular trials. Both parts of this report are relevant to all clinical trials which study time to death, and wound be equally relevant to clinical trials which study time to other particular classes of untoward event: first stroke, perhaps, or first relapse, metastasis, disease recurrence, thrombosis, transplant rejection, or death from a particular cause. Part I, in this issue, collects together ideas that have mostly already appeared in the medical literature, but Part II, next month, is the first simple account yet published for non-statistical physicians of how to analyse efficiently data from clinical trials of survival duration. Such trials include the majority of all clinical trials of cancer therapy; in cancer trials,however, it may be preferable to use these statistical methods to study time to local recurrence of tumour, or to study time to detectable metastatic spread, in addition to studying total survival. Solid tumours can be staged at diagnosis; if this, or any other available information in some other disease is an important determinant of outcome, it can be used to make the overall logrank test for the whole heterogeneous trial population more sensitive, and more intuitively satisfactory, for it will then only be necessary to compare like with like, and not, by chance, Stage I with Stage III

Design and analysis of randomized clinical trials requiring prolonged observation of each patient. II. analysis and examples.

Part I of this report appeared in the previous issue (Br. J. Cancer (1976) 34,585), and discussed the design of randomized clinical trials. Part II now describes efficient methods of analysis of randomized clinical trials in which we wish to compare the duration of survival (or the time until some other untoward event first occurs) among different groups of patients. It is intended to enable physicians without statistical training either to analyse such data themselves using life tables, the logrank test and retrospective stratification, or, when such analyses are presented, to appreciate them more critically, but the discussion may also be of interest to statisticians who have not yet specialized in clinical trial analyses

Verbal autopsy of 48 000 adult deaths attributable to medical causes in Chennai (formerly Madras), India

BACKGROUND: In the city of Chennai, India, registration of the fact of death is almost complete but the cause of death is often inadequately recorded on the death certificate. A special verbal autopsy (VA) study of 48 000 adult deaths in Chennai during 1995–97 was conducted to arrive at the probable underlying cause of death and to measure cause specific mortality rates for Chennai. METHODS: Trained non-medical graduates with at least 15 years of formal education interviewed the surviving family members or an associate of the deceased to write a report on the complaints, symptoms, signs, duration and treatment details of illness prior to death. Each report was reviewed centrally by two physicians independently. The reliability was assessed by comparing deaths attributed to cancer by VA with records in Vital Statistics Department and Chennai Cancer Registry. RESULTS: The VA reduced the proportion of deaths attributed to unspecified medical causes and unknown causes from 37% to 7% in early adult life and middle age (25–69 yrs) and has yielded fewer unspecified causes (only 10%) than the death certificate. The sensitivity of VA to identify cancer was 94% in the age group 25–69. CONCLUSION: VA is practicable for deaths in early adult life or middle age and is of more limited value in old age. A systematic program of VA of a representative sample of deaths could assign broad causes not only to deaths in childhood (as has previously been established) but also to deaths in early adult life and middle age

Menopausal hormone use and ovarian cancer risk: individual participant meta-analysis of 52 epidemiological studies.

BACKGROUND: Half the epidemiological studies with information about menopausal hormone therapy and ovarian cancer risk remain unpublished, and some retrospective studies could have been biased by selective participation or recall. We aimed to assess with minimal bias the effects of hormone therapy on ovarian cancer risk. METHODS: Individual participant datasets from 52 epidemiological studies were analysed centrally. The principal analyses involved the prospective studies (with last hormone therapy use extrapolated forwards for up to 4 years). Sensitivity analyses included the retrospective studies. Adjusted Poisson regressions yielded relative risks (RRs) versus never-use. FINDINGS: During prospective follow-up, 12 110 postmenopausal women, 55% (6601) of whom had used hormone therapy, developed ovarian cancer. Among women last recorded as current users, risk was increased even with <5 years of use (RR 1·43, 95% CI 1·31-1·56; p<0·0001). Combining current-or-recent use (any duration, but stopped <5 years before diagnosis) resulted in an RR of 1·37 (95% CI 1·29-1·46; p<0·0001); this risk was similar in European and American prospective studies and for oestrogen-only and oestrogen-progestagen preparations, but differed across the four main tumour types (heterogeneity p<0·0001), being definitely increased only for the two most common types, serous (RR 1·53, 95% CI 1·40-1·66; p<0·0001) and endometrioid (1·42, 1·20-1·67; p<0·0001). Risk declined the longer ago use had ceased, although about 10 years after stopping long-duration hormone therapy use there was still an excess of serous or endometrioid tumours (RR 1·25, 95% CI 1·07-1·46, p=0·005). INTERPRETATION: The increased risk may well be largely or wholly causal; if it is, women who use hormone therapy for 5 years from around age 50 years have about one extra ovarian cancer per 1000 users and, if its prognosis is typical, about one extra ovarian cancer death per 1700 users. FUNDING: Medical Research Council, Cancer Research UK

Genetic relationships within and among Iberian fescues (Festuca L.) based on PCR-amplified markers

The genus Festuca comprises approximately 450 species and is widely distributed around the world. The Iberian Penninsula, with more than 100 taxa colonizing very diverse habitats, is one of its main centers of diversification. This study was conducted to assess molecular genetic variation and genetic relatedness among 91 populations of 31 taxa of Iberian fescues, based on several molecular markers (random amplified polymorphic DNA, amplified fragment length polymorphisms, and trnL sequences). The analyses showed the paraphyletic origin of the broad-leaved (subgenus Festuca, sections Scariosae and Subbulbosae, and subgenus Schedonorus) and the fine-leaved fescues (subgenus Festuca, sections Aulaxyper, Eskia, and Festuca). Schedonorus showed a weak relationship with Lolium rigidum and appeared to be the most recent of the broad-leaved clade. Section Eskia was the most ancient and Festuca the most recent of the fine-leaved clade. Festuca and Aulaxyper were the most related sections, in concordance with their taxonomic affinities. All taxa grouped into their sections, except F. ampla and F. capillifolia (section Festuca), which appeared to be more closely related to Aulaxyper and to a new independent section, respectively. Most populations clustered at the species level, but some subspecies and varieties mixed their populations. This study demonstrated the value in combining different molecular markers to uncover hidden genetic relationships between populations of Festuca

Verbal autopsy of 80,000 adult deaths in Tamilnadu, South India

BACKGROUND: Registration of the fact of death is almost complete in the city of Chennai and not so in the rural Villupuram district in Tamilnadu, India. The cause of death is often inadequately recorded on the death certificate in developing countries like India. A special verbal autopsy (VA) study of 48 000 adult (aged ≥ 25 yrs) deaths in the city of Chennai (urban) during 1995–97 and 32 000 in rural Villupuram during 1997–98 was conducted to arrive at the probable underlying cause of death to estimate cause specific mortality. METHODS: A ten day training on writing verbal autopsy (VA) report for adult deaths was given to non-medical graduates with at least 15 years of formal education. They interviewed surviving spouse/close associates of the deceased to write a verbal autopsy report in local language (Tamil) on the complaints, symptoms, signs, duration and treatment details of illness prior to death. Each report was reviewed centrally by two physicians independently. Random re-interviewing of 5% of the VA reports was done to check the reliability and reproducibility of the VA report. The validity of VA diagnosis was assessed only for cancer deaths. RESULTS: Verbal autopsy reduced the proportion of deaths attributed to unspecified and unknown causes from 54% to 23% (p < 0.0001) in urban and from 41% to 26% (p < 0.0001) in rural areas in Tamilnadu for adult deaths (≥ 25). The sensitivity of VA to identify cancer was 95% in the age group 25–69. CONCLUSION: A ten day training programme to write verbal autopsy report with adequate feed back sessions and random sampling of 5% of the verbal autopsy reports for re-interview worked very well in Tamilnadu, to arrive at the probable underlying cause of death reliably for deaths in early adult life or middle age (25–69 years) and less reliably for older ages (70+). Thus VA is practicable for deaths in early adult life or middle age and is of more limited value in old age

Paying clinicians to join clinical trials : a review of guidelines and interview study of trialists

Background: The motivations of clinicians to participate in clinical trials have been little studied. This project explored the potential role of payment for participation in publicly funded clinical trials in the UK. The aims were to review relevant guidelines and to collate and analyse views of clinical trialists on the role of payments and other factors that motivated clinicians to join clinical trials. Methods: Review of guidelines governing payments to clinicians for recruitment to trials. Semistructured interviews with a range of NHS clinical trial leaders, analysed using qualititative methods. Results: While UK guidelines had little to say specifically on payments linked to recruitment, all payments have become highly regulated and increasingly transparent. Interview participants believed that expenses arising from research should be covered. Payments in excess of expenses were seen as likely to increase participation but with the risk of reducing quality. Motivations such as interest in the topic, the scope for patients to benefit and intellectual curiosity were considered more important. Barriers to involvement included bureaucracy and lack of time. Discussion: Limited scope exists for paying clinicians over-and-above the cost of their time to be involved in research. Most trialists favour full payment of all expenses related to research. Conclusion: Payment of clinicians beyond expenses is perceived to be a less important motivating factor than researching important, salient questions, and facilitating research by reducing bureaucracy and delay

Cognitive and social activities and long-term dementia risk: the prospective UK Million Women Study

BACKGROUND: Although dementia is associated with non-participation in cognitive and social activities, this association might merely reflect the consequences of dementia, rather than any direct effect of non-participation on the subsequent incidence of dementia. Because of the slowness with which dementia can develop, unbiased assessment of any such direct effects must relate non-participation in such activities to dementia detection rates many years later. Prospective studies with long-term follow-up can help achieve this by analysing separately the first and second decade of follow-up. We report such analyses of a large, 20-year study. METHODS: The UK Million Women Study is a population-based prospective study of 1·3 million women invited for National Health Service (NHS) breast cancer screening in median year 1998 (IQR 1997-1999). In median year 2001 (IQR 2001-2003), women were asked about participation in adult education, groups for art, craft, or music, and voluntary work, and in median year 2006 (IQR 2006-2006), they were asked about reading. All participants were followed up through electronic linkage to NHS records of hospital admission with mention of dementia, the first mention of which was the main outcome. Comparing non-participation with participation in a particular activity, we used Cox regression to assess fully adjusted dementia risk ratios (RRs) during 0-4, 5-9, and 10 or more years, after information on that activity was obtained. FINDINGS: In 2001, 851 307 women with a mean age of 60 years (SD 5) provided information on participation in adult education, groups for art, craft, or music, and voluntary work. After 10 years, only 9591 (1%) had been lost to follow-up and 789 339 (93%) remained alive with no recorded dementia. Follow-up was for a mean of 16 years (SD 3), during which 31 187 (4%) had at least one hospital admission with mention of dementia, including 25 636 (3%) with a hospital admission with dementia mentioned for the first time 10 years or more after follow-up began. Non-participation in cognitive or social activities was associated with higher relative risks of dementia detection only during the first decade after participation was recorded. During the second decade, there was little association. This was true for non-participation in adult education (RR 1·04, 99% CI 0·98-1·09), in groups for art, craft, or music (RR 1·04, 0·99-1·09), in voluntary work (RR 0·96, 0·92-1·00), or in any of these three (RR 0·99, 0·95-1·03). In 2006, 655 118 women provided information on reading. For non-reading versus any reading, there were similar associations with dementia, again with strong attenuation over time since reading was recorded, but longer follow-up is needed to assess this reliably. INTERPRETATION: Life has to be lived forwards, but can be understood only backwards. Long before dementia is diagnosed, there is a progressive reduction in various mental and physical activities, but this is chiefly because its gradual onset causes inactivity and not because inactivity causes dementia. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council, Cancer Research UK

Barriers and enablers to diabetic retinopathy screening attendance: Protocol for a systematic review

BACKGROUND: Diabetic retinopathy is a serious complication of diabetes which, if left untreated, can result in blindness. Population screening among people with diabetes has been shown to be clinically effective; however, suboptimal attendance with wide demographic disparities has been reported. To develop quality improvement interventions to maximise attendance, it is important to understand the theoretical determinants (i.e. barriers and enablers) of screening behaviour. The aim of this systematic review is to identify and synthesise the modifiable barriers and enablers associated with diabetic retinopathy screening attendance. METHODS/DESIGN: Primary and secondary studies will be included if they report perceived barriers/enablers of diabetic retinopathy screening attendance, from the perspectives of people with diabetes and healthcare providers. There will be no restrictions on study design. Studies will be identified from published and grey literature through multiple sources. Bibliographic databases will be searched using synonyms in four search domains: diabetic retinopathy; screening; barriers/enablers; and theoretical constructs relating to behaviour. Search engines and established databases of grey literature will be searched to identify additional relevant studies. Extracted data will include: participant quotations from qualitative studies, statistical analyses from questionnaire and survey studies, and interpretive descriptions and summaries of results from reports. All extracted data will be coded into domains from the Theoretical Domains Framework (TDF) and (for organisational level data) the Consolidated Framework of Implementation Research (CFIR); with domains representing theoretical barriers/enablers proposed to mediate behaviour change. The potential role of each domain in influencing retinopathy screening attendance will be investigated through thematic analysis of the TDF/ CFIR coding. Domain importance will be identified using pre-specified criteria: "frequency" and "expressed importance". Variations in perceived barriers and enablers between demographic groups (e.g., socio-economic, ethnic) will be explored. DISCUSSION: This review will identify important barriers and enablers likely to influence attendance for diabetic retinopathy screening. The results will be used to assess the extent to which existing interventions targeting attendance address the theoretical determinants of attendance behaviour. Findings will inform recommendations for future intervention design. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42016032990

Certified causes of death in patients with mesothelioma in South East England

Background: Mesothelioma is a highly fatal cancer that is caused by exposure to asbestos fibres. In many populations, the occurrence of mesothelioma is monitored with the use of mortality data from death certification. We examine certified causes of death of patients who have been diagnosed with mesothelioma, and assess the validity of death certification data as a proxy for mesothelioma incidence.Methods: We extracted mesothelioma registrations in the South East of England area between 2000 and 2004 from the Thames Cancer Registry database. We retained for analysis 2200 patients who had died at the time of analysis, after having excluded seven dead cases where the causes of death were not known to the cancer registry. The 2200 deaths were classified hierarchically to identify (1) mesothelioma deaths, (2) deaths certified as lung cancer deaths or (3) deaths from unspecified cancer, and (4) deaths from other causes.Results: 87% of the patients had mesothelioma mentioned on the death certificate. 6% had no mention of mesothelioma but included lung cancer as a cause of death. Another 6% had no mention of mesothelioma or lung cancer, but included an unspecified cancer as a cause of death. Lastly, 2% had other causes of death specified on the death certificate.Conclusion: This analysis suggests that official mortality data may underestimate the true occurrence of mesothelioma by around 10%