Technology Adoption in Poorly Specified Environments

This article extends the characteristics-based choice framework of technology adoption to account for decisions taken by boundedly-rational individuals in environments where traits are not fully observed. It is applied to an agricultural setting and introduces the concept of ambiguity in the agricultural technology adoption literature by relaxing strict informational and cognition related assumptions that are implied by traditional Bayesian analysis. The main results confirm that ambiguity increases as local conditions become less homogeneous and as computational ability, own experience and nearby adoption rates decrease. Measurement biases associated with full rationality assumptions are found to increase when decision makers have low computational ability, low experience and when their farming conditions differ widely from average adopter ones. A complementary empirical paper (Useche 2006) finds that models assuming low confidence in observed data, ambiguity and pessimistic expectations about traits predict sample shares better than models which assume that farmers do not face ambiguity or are optimistic about the traits of new varieties.Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,

Improved water supply in the Ghanaian Volta Basin: who uses it and who participates in community decision-making?

"We examine access to, use of, and participation in decisions on improved water supply in the Volta basin of Ghana, one of the first countries to introduce a community-based approach to rural water supply on a large scale. While 71 percent of the households interviewed have access to improved water, 43 percent of these continue to use unsafe sources as their main domestic water source. Our results indicate that quality perceptions and opportunity costs play an important role in households' choice of water source. The effect of prices and income levels on this choice differs according to the pricing system used. Given that supply characteristics such as the location and pricing system affect household decisions to use the improved source, households may try to influence these characteristics in their favor during the community decision-making process for the improved source. However, less than 40 percent of the households interviewed participated in decisions on location or technology. We argue that the decision whether to participate depends on three main factors: (i) the household's bargaining power, (ii) the potential benefits from influencing outcomes, and (iii) the cost of participation, (mainly opportunity cost of time). Our results indicate that bargaining power matters more than potential benefits. Moreover, we find an extremes effect: the poorest, uneducated and the richest, highly educated segments of the community are more likely to participate in decision-making for improved domestic water supply than the middle class. We conclude with policy implications and needs for further research." Authors' AbstractWater resource allocation, Community participation, Community-based resource management,

A Trait Specific Model of GM Crop Adoption among U.S. Corn Farmers in the Upper Midwest

This work offers a new approach to the adoption of GM crop varieties by adopting the econometric methodology of the characteristics-based demand literature. A random utility framework was implemented through different specifications of a conditional (CL) and a mixed multinomial logit (MMNL) model of crop-variety choice. Willingness-to-pay and price elasticity estimates for traits were calculated. The MMNL approach demonstrates that individuals' tastes for some traits significantly vary across the population. Results further suggest that labor saving technologies have a much wider potential to be adopted. Overall, the use of a trait-based model to examine the adoption patterns of GM crop varieties among corn farmers in Minnesota and Wisconsin reveals a new set of results and lessons that classic adoption models cannot provide.Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,

Sequential Adoption of Package Technologies: The Dynamics of Stacked Trait Corn Adoption

GM corn seed companies have innovated continuously with the introduction of new traits and, more recently, with the creation of stacked varieties, which combine more than one trait. This work develops a Bayesian model of adoption dynamics that demonstrates how uncertainty with a package technology with known risk can lead to a sequential adoption pattern in which farmers adopt a single component first. We then develop a semiparametric panel data model of adoption dynamics to measure the effects of experience with single trait (non-stacked) varieties on the adoption of stacked varieties. The results underscore the importance of early experience with the non-stacked technology in the subsequent adoption of stacked varieties, i.e., a sequential adoption process. There is also evidence that farmers with more human capital tend to learn faster from own experience and that as the GM corn-technology diffusion process deepens, the importance of early experience decreases.Crop Production/Industries,

The State Contingent Approach to Farmers' Valuation and Adoption of New Biotech Crops: Nitrogen-Fertilizer Saving and Drought Tolerance Traits

We used a state contingent approach to give a detailed analysis of the uncertainty surrounding seed trait adoption. Our framework emphasizes the role of timing and information in farmers’ adoption decisions. The inherent embeddedness of seed traits results in timing restrictions and the inability of post-planting adjustments, this in turn results in farmers necessarily engaging in a game with nature. Two main types of traits we identify are supplementing traits and stabilizing traits – classification into each category is directly related on the mobility of the production factor the trait intends to substitute. Supplementing traits allow for acting after nature (i.e., ex post) while stabilizing traits are better modeled as acting before nature (i.e., ex ante). The type of trait results in different determinants of the farmers’ WTP function.State Contingent, Genetically Modified, Biotech, Contingent Valuation, Nitrogen Absorption Efficiency, Drought Tolerance, Uncertainty, Seed Trait, Technological Adoption, Crop Production/Industries, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,

Uncertainty Undermines Area-Wide Pest Management for Citrus Greening in Florida

Area-wide pest management targets the pest population of an entire area rather than a single farm. Such collective efforts are more efficient in the use of pest-control inputs and therefore have more lasting effects relative to individual (uncoordinated) farm sprays when pest populations are highly mobile. Coordinated sprays may also help reduce pesticide resistance (Vreysen, Robinson, and Hendrichs, 2007). From an economic standpoint, growers are expected to join an area-wide management group and coordinate pest management practices whenever the benefits outweigh the costs. Remarkably, Florida citrus growers’ participation in area-wide pest management has not been commensurate with evidence regarding its effectiveness in dealing with citrus greening. A likely explanation for the low participation rate is that the cost of coordinating insecticide sprays includes more than just application costs; it also includes the uncertainty growers face regarding their neighbors’ behavior

Los profesionales de la salud y la crisis del sistema de salud en Colombia: ¿Indignación o acomodamiento?

Hay un gran consenso en el país sobre la urgencia de reformar el Sistema General de Seguridad Social en Salud (SGSSS). Nunca antes había sido tan evidente su fracaso. En primer lugar, por la corrupción desbordada y manifiesta, reconocida en la reciente sanción de la Superintendencia de Industria y Comercio por 16.984 millones a 14 Empresas Promotoras de Salud (EPS) y a la Asociación Colombiana de Empresas de Medicina Integral (ACEMI), organización que las representa. En segundo lugar, por que la sostenibilidad financiera del sistema está seriamente comprometida, a más que la red de hospitales públicos y otras Instituciones Prestadoras de Servicios de Salud (IPS) están al borde de la quiebra: de acuerdo con el último corte de cartera a 30 de junio de este año, a los hospitales públicos se les adeuda en 3,8 billones,  la mitad de los cuales correspondían a dineros no pagados por las EPS; más grave aún es que estas deudas y las que existen entre el Fondo de Solidaridad y Garantías (Fosyga), las EPS y las IPS se intentan solucionar por parte del  gobierno con un rescate financiero de las EPS y otra serie de medidas apenas anunciadas que seguramente consisten en un refinamiento del modelo de intermediación con ánimo de lucro, que es la única razón de ser de las EPS, y la causa principal del desastre actual del  SGSSS. Es en ese sentido que debe entenderse la planeada reducción del número de EPS de las 72 existentes a menos de 20. El objetivo de la reestructuración del sistema de salud puesto en marcha por el Ministerio de la Protección Social no es resolver el problema de fondo de cómo se atienden todas las necesidades de la población sino como se perfecciona el gran negocio de las EPS

Climate change in the Andes: predictions, perceptions and adaptation by peruvian rice farmers

Rice cultivation in Peru exemplifies the complex nature of the interaction between changing climatic conditions and households’ decisions on how to cope with these changes given their constraints and perceptions. In this study, we look at this interaction, focusing on small-scale household farmers that depend on rice production for their livelihoods. We first examine men’s and women’s perceptions of climatic changes and compare them to aggregate and weather station observations of changes in climatic indicators. Second, we examine the various adaptation practices used by rice farmers to cope with climate change, and what determines these practices using a multivariate probit analysis

The health professionals and the crisis of the Colombia Health System ¿Indignation or indifference?

Hay un gran consenso en el paÍs sobre la urgencia de reformar el Sistema General de Seguridad Social en Salud (SGSSS). Nunca antes habÍa sido tan evidente su fracaso. En primer lugar, por la corrupción desbordada y manifiesta, reconocida en la reciente sanción de la Superintendencia de Industria y Comercio por $16.984 millones a 14 Empresas Promotoras de Salud (EPS) y a la Asociación Colombiana de Empresas de Medicina Integral (ACEMI), organización que las representa. En segundo lugar, por que la sostenibilidad financiera del sistema está seriamente comprometida, a más que la red de hospitales públicos y otras Instituciones Prestadoras de Servicios de Salud (IPS) están al borde de la quiebra: de acuerdo con el último corte de cartera a 30 de junio de este año, a los hospitales públicos se les adeuda en$3,8 billones, la mitad de los cuales correspondÍan a dineros no pagados por las EPS; más grave aún es que estas deudas y las que existen entre el Fondo de Solidaridad y GarantÍas (Fosyga), las EPS y las IPS se intentan solucionar por parte del gobierno con un rescate financiero de las EPS y otra serie de medidas apenas anunciadas que seguramente consisten en un refinamiento del modelo de intermediación con ánimo de lucro, que es la única razón de ser de las EPS, y la causa principal del desastre actual del SGSSS. Es en ese sentido que debe entenderse la planeada reducción del número de EPS de las 72 existentes a menos de 20. El objetivo de la reestructuración del sistema de salud puesto en marcha por el Ministerio de la Protección Social no es resolver el problema de fondo de cómo se atienden todas las necesidades de la población sino como se perfecciona el gran negocio de las EPS.There is a great consensus in the country on the urgency of reforming the General System of Social Security in Health (SGSSS). Never before has his failure been so evident. In the first place, due to the overflowing and manifest corruption, recognized in the recent sanction of the Superintendency of Industry and Commerce for $16,984 million to 14 Health Promoting Companies (EPS) and the Colombian Association of Integral Medicine Companies (ACEMI), an organization that represents them. Secondly, because the financial sustainability of the system is seriously compromised, in addition to the fact that the network of public hospitals and other Health Service Providers (IPS) are on the verge of bankruptcy: according to the latest portfolio cutoff at June 30 of this year, public hospitals are owed$ 3.8 trillion, half of which corresponded to money not paid by the EPS; Even more serious is that these debts and those that exist between the Solidarity and Guarantee Fund (Fosyga), the EPS and the IPS are trying to be solved by the government with a financial rescue of the EPS and another series of barely announced measures that surely They consist of a refinement of the for-profit intermediation model, which is the sole reason for the EPS, and the main cause of the current SGSSS disaster. It is in this sense that the planned reduction of the number of EPS from the existing 72 to less than 20. The objective of the restructuring of the health system launched by the Ministry of Social Protection is not to solve the underlying problem of how are all the needs of the population met, but how the great business of EPS is perfected