Computational methodology for solubility prediction: Application to the sparingly soluble solutes

The solubility of a crystalline substance in the solution can be estimated from its absolute solid free energy and excess solvation free energy. Here, we present a numerical method, which enables convenient solubility estimation of general molecular crystals at arbitrary thermodynamic conditions where solid and solution can coexist. The methodology is based on standard alchemical free energy methods, such as thermodynamic integration and free energy perturbation, and consists of two parts: (1) systematic extension of the Einstein crystal method to calculate the absolute solid free energies of molecular crystals at arbitrary temperatures and pressures and (2) a flexible cavity method that can yield accurate estimates of the excess solvation free energies. As an illustration, via classical Molecular Dynamic simulations, we show that our approach can predict the solubility of OPLS-AA-based (Optimized Potentials for Liquid Simulations All Atomic) naphthalene in SPC (Simple Point Charge) water in good agreement with experimental data at various temperatures and pressures. Because the procedure is simple and general and only makes use of readily available open-source software, the methodology should provide a powerful tool for universal solubility prediction.The authors would like to acknowledge the funding and technical support including BP’s High Performance Computing facility, from BP through the BP International Centre for Advanced Materials (BP-ICAM) which made this research possible. All the simulations in the work were hence conducted using the HPC resources from BP and computer resources at the Department of Chemistry, Cambridge

Costs analysis of a population level rabies control programme in Tamil Nadu, India

The study aimed to determine costs to the state government of implementing different interventions for controlling rabies among the entire human and animal populations of Tamil Nadu. This built upon an earlier assessment of Tamil Nadu’s efforts to control rabies. Anti-rabies vaccines were made available at all health facilities. Costs were estimated for five different combinations of animal and human interventions using an activity-based costing approach from the provider perspective. Disease and population data were sourced from the state surveillance data, human census and livestock census. Program costs were extrapolated from official documents. All capital costs were depreciated to estimate annualized costs. All costs were inflated to 2012 Rupees. Sensitivity analysis was conducted across all major cost centres to assess their relative impact on program costs. It was found that the annual costs of providing Anti-rabies vaccine alone and in combination with Immunoglobulins was \$0.7 million (Rs 36 million) and \$2.2 million (Rs 119 million), respectively. For animal sector interventions, the annualised costs of rolling out surgical sterilisation-immunization, injectable immunization and oral immunizations were estimated to be \$ 44 million (Rs 2,350 million), \$23 million (Rs 1,230 million) and \$ 11 million (Rs 590 million), respectively. Dog bite incidence, health systems coverage and cost of rabies biologicals were found to be important drivers of costs for human interventions. For the animal sector interventions, the size of dog catching team, dog population and vaccine costs were found to be driving the costs. Rabies control in Tamil Nadu seems a costly proposition the way it is currently structured. Policy makers in Tamil Nadu and other similar settings should consider the long-term financial sustainability before embarking upon a state or nation-wide rabies control programme

Addressing hysteresis and slow equilibration issues in cavity-based calculation of chemical potentials.

In this paper, we explore the strengths and weaknesses of a cavity-based method to calculate the excess chemical potential of a large molecular solute in a dense liquid solvent. Use of the cavity alleviates some technical problems associated with the appearance of (integrable) divergences in the integrand during alchemical particle growth. The excess chemical potential calculated using the cavity-based method should be independent of the cavity attributes. However, the performance of the method (equilibration time and the robustness) does depend on the cavity attributes. To illustrate the importance of a suitable choice of the cavity attributes, we calculate the partition coefficient of pyrene in toluene and heptane using a coarse-grained model. We find that a poor choice for the functional form of the cavity may lead to hysteresis between growth and shrinkage of the cavity. Somewhat unexpectedly, we find that, by allowing the cavity to move as a pseudo-particle within the simulation box, the decay time of fluctuations in the integrand of the thermodynamic integration can be reduced by an order of magnitude, thereby increasing the statistical accuracy of the calculation.BP ICA

Formation of methane clathrate hydrates at elevated pressures and in the presence of nanoparticles

Natural gas hydrates occur widely on the ocean-bed and in permafrost regions, and have potential as an untapped energy resource. Their formation and growth, however, poses major problems for the energy sector due to their tendency to block oil and gas pipelines, whereas their melting is viewed as a potential contributor to climate change. Although recent advances have been made in understanding bulk methane hydrate formation, the effect of impurity particles, which are always present under conditions relevant to industry and the environment, remains an open question. Here we present results from neutron scattering experiments and molecular dynamics simulations that show that the formation of methane hydrate is insensitive to the addition of a wide range of impurity particles. Our analysis shows that this is due to the different chemical natures of methane and water, with methane generally excluded from the volume surrounding the nanoparticles. This has important consequences for our understanding of the mechanism of hydrate nucleation and the design of new inhibitor molecules

Distributed Multipoles from a Robust Basis-Space Implementation of the Iterated Stockholder Atoms Procedure

The recently developed iterated stockholder atoms (ISA) approach of Lillestolen and Wheatley (<i>Chem. Commun.</i> <b>2008</b>, 5909) offers a powerful method for defining atoms in a molecule. However, the real-space algorithm is known to converge very slowly, if at all. Here, we present a robust, basis-space algorithm of the ISA method and demonstrate its applicability on a variety of systems. We show that this algorithm exhibits rapid convergence (taking around 10–80 iterations) with the number of iterations needed being unrelated to the system size or basis set used. Further, we show that the multipole moments calculated using this basis-space ISA method are as good as, or better than, those obtained from Stone’s distributed multipole analysis (<i>J. Chem. Theory Comput.</i> <b>2005</b>, <i>1</i>, 1128), exhibiting better convergence properties and resulting in better behaved penetration energies. This can have significant consequences in the development of intermolecular interaction models

Development of an inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) Patient‐Reported Experience Measure (PREM): A patient‐led consensus work and ‘think aloud’ study for a quality improvement programme

Background Patient-Reported Experience Measures (PREMs) are key in improving healthcare quality, but no PREM exists for inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). This study aimed to co-produce a PREM with IBD service users for IBD service evaluation and quality improvement programme. Methods A pool of 75 items was drawn from published survey instruments covering interactions with services and aspects of living with IBD. In Stage 1, during two workshops, eight expert service users reduced candidate items through a ranked-choice voting exercise and suggested further items. During Stage 2, 18 previously uninvolved people with IBD assessed the face and content validity of the candidate items in ‘Think Aloud’ interviews. During two final workshops (Stage 3), the expert service users removed, modified and added items based on the interview findings to produce a final version of the PREM. Results Stage 1 generated a draft working PREM mapped to the following four domains: Patient-Centred Care; Quality; Accessibility; Communication and Involvement. The PREM included a set of nine items created by the expert group which shifted the emphasis from ‘self-management’ to ‘living with IBD’. Stage 2 interviews showed that comprehension of the PREM was very good, although there were concerns about the wording, IBD-relevance and ambiguity of some items. During the final two workshops in Stage 3, the expert service users removed 7 items, modified 15 items and added seven new ones based on the interview findings, resulting in a 38-item PREM. Conclusions This study demonstrates how extensive service user involvement can inform PREM development. Patient or Public Contribution Patients were involved as active members of the research team and as research participants to co-produce and validate a PREM for IBD services. In Stage 1, eight expert service users (‘the expert group’) reduced candidate items for the PREM through a voting exercise and suggested new items. During Stage 2, 18 previously uninvolved people with IBD (the ‘think aloud’ participants) assessed the validity of the candidate items in ‘Think Aloud’ interviews as research participants. In Stage 3, the expert group removed, changed and added items based on the interview findings to produce a final version of the 38-item PREM. This study shows how service user involvement can meaningfully inform PREM development

Rabies, Still Neglected after 125 Years of Vaccination

International audienceno abstrac

The vaccination of 35,000 dogs in 20 working days using combined static point and door-to-door methods in Blantyre, Malawi

An estimated 60,000 people die of rabies annually. The vast majority of cases of human rabies develop following a bite from an infected dog. Rabies can be controlled in both human and canine populations through widespread vaccination of dogs. Rabies is particularly problematic in Malawi, costing the country an estimated 13 million USD and 484 human deaths annually, with an increasing paediatric incidence in Blantyre City. Consequently, the aim of this study was to vaccinate a minimum of 75% of all the dogs within Blantyre city during a one month period. Blantyre's 25 administrative wards were divided into 204 working zones. For initial planning, a mean human:dog ratio from the literature enabled estimation of dog population size and dog surveys were then performed in 29 working zones in order to assess dog distribution by land type. Vaccination was conducted at static point stations at weekends, at a total of 44 sites, with each operating for an average of 1.3 days. On Monday to Wednesday, door-to-door vaccination sessions were undertaken in the areas surrounding the preceding static point stations. 23,442 dogs were vaccinated at static point stations and 11,774 dogs were vaccinated during door-to-door vaccinations. At the end of the 20 day vaccination programme, an assessment of vaccination coverage through door-to-door surveys found that of 10,919 dogs observed, 8,661 were vaccinated resulting in a vaccination coverage of 79.3% (95%CI 78.6-80.1%). The estimated human:dog ratio for Blantyre city was 18.1:1. Mobile technology facilitated the collection of data as well as efficient direction and coordination of vaccination teams in near real time. This study demonstrates the feasibility of vaccinating large numbers of dogs at a high vaccination coverage, over a short time period in a large African city