3D Reconstruction of a Rotating Erupting Prominence

A bright prominence associated with a coronal mass ejection (CME) was seen erupting from the Sun on 9 April 2008. This prominence was tracked by both the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) EUVI and COR1 telescopes, and was seen to rotate about the line of sight as it erupted; therefore, the event has been nicknamed the "Cartwheel CME." The threads of the prominence in the core of the CME quite clearly indicate the structure of a weakly to moderately twisted flux rope throughout the field of view, up to heliocentric heights of 4 solar radii. Although the STEREO separation was 48 degrees, it was possible to match some sharp features in the later part of the eruption as seen in the 304 {\AA} line in EUVI and in the H\alpha-sensitive bandpass of COR1 by both STEREO Ahead and Behind. These features could then be traced out in three-dimensional space, and reprojected into a view in which the eruption is directed towards the observer. The reconstructed view shows that the alignment of the prominence to the vertical axis rotates as it rises up to a leading-edge height of \approx 2.5 solar radii, and then remains approximately constant. The alignment at 2.5 solar radii differs by about 115 degrees from the original filament orientation inferred from H{\alpha} and EUV data, and the height profile of the rotation, obtained here for the first time, shows that two thirds of the total rotation is reached within \approx 0.5 solar radii above the photosphere. These features are well reproduced by numerical simulations of an unstable moderately twisted flux rope embedded in external flux with a relatively strong shear field component.Comment: published in Solar Physics (Online First

Nonlinear softening as a predictive precursor to climate tipping

Approaching a dangerous bifurcation, from which a dynamical system such as the Earth's climate will jump (tip) to a different state, the current stable state lies within a shrinking basin of attraction. Persistence of the state becomes increasingly precarious in the presence of noisy disturbances. We consider an underlying potential, as defined theoretically for a saddle-node fold and (via averaging) for a Hopf bifurcation. Close to a stable state, this potential has a parabolic form; but approaching a jump it becomes increasingly dominated by softening nonlinearities. If we have already detected a decrease in the linear decay rate, nonlinear information allows us to estimate the propensity for early tipping due to noise. We argue that one needs to extract information about the nonlinear features (a "softening") of the underlying potential from the time series to judge the probability and timing of tipping. This analysis is the logical next step if one has detected a decrease of the linear decay rate. If there is no discernable trend in the linear analysis, nonlinear softening is even more important in showing the proximity to tipping. After extensive normal form calibration studies, we check two geological time series from paleo-climate tipping events for softening of the underlying well. For the ending of the last ice age, where we find no convincing linear precursor, we identify a statistically significant nonlinear softening towards increasing temperature. The analysis has thus successfully detected a warning of the imminent tipping event.Comment: 22 pages, 11 figures, changed title back, corrected smaller mistakes, updated reference

Falling liquid films with blowing and suction

Flow of a thin viscous film down a flat inclined plane becomes unstable to long wave interfacial fluctuations when the Reynolds number based on the mean film thickness becomes larger than a critical value (this value decreases as the angle of inclination with the horizontal increases, and in particular becomes zero when the plate is vertical). Control of these interfacial instabilities is relevant to a wide range of industrial applications including coating processes and heat or mass transfer systems. This study considers the effect of blowing and suction through the substrate in order to construct from first principles physically realistic models that can be used for detailed passive and active control studies of direct relevance to possible experiments. Two different long-wave, thin-film equations are derived to describe this system; these include the imposed blowing/suction as well as inertia, surface tension, gravity and viscosity. The case of spatially periodic blowing and suction is considered in detail and the bifurcation structure of forced steady states is explored numerically to predict that steady states cease to exist for sufficiently large suction speeds since the film locally thins to zero thickness giving way to dry patches on the substrate. The linear stability of the resulting nonuniform steady states is investigated for perturbations of arbitrary wavelengths, and any instabilities are followed into the fully nonlinear regime using time-dependent computations. The case of small amplitude blowing/suction is studied analytically both for steady states and their stability. Finally, the transition between travelling waves and non-uniform steady states is explored as the suction amplitude increases

Origins of elastic properties in ordered nanocomposites

We predict a diblock copolymer melt in the lamellar phase with added spherical nanoparticles that have an affinity for one block to have a lower tensile modulus than a pure diblock copolymer system. This weakening is due to the swelling of the lamellar domain by nanoparticles and the displacement of polymer by elastically inert fillers. Despite the overall decrease in the tensile modulus of a polydomain sample, the shear modulus for a single domain increases dramatically

Measuring the Regional Economic Response to Hurricane Katrina

Naturkatastrophe; Sturm; Makroökonomischer Einfluss; USA

A ratio model of perceived speed in the human visual system

The perceived speed of moving images changes over time. Prolonged viewing of a pattern (adaptation) leads to an exponential decrease in its perceived speed. Similarly, responses of neurones tuned to motion reduce exponentially over time. It is tempting to link these phenomena. However, under certain conditions, perceived speed increases after adaptation and the time course of these perceptual effects varies widely. We propose a model that comprises two temporally tuned mechanisms whose sensitivities reduce exponentially over time. Perceived speed is taken as the ratio of these filters' outputs. The model captures increases and decreases in perceived speed following adaptation and describes our data well with just four free parameters. Whilst the model captures perceptual time courses that vary widely, parameter estimates for the time constants of the underlying filters are in good agreement with estimates of the time course of adaptation of direction selective neurones in the mammalian visual system

Millipeds (Arthropoda: Diplopoda) of the Ark - La - Tex. VI. New Geographic Distributional Records from Select Counties of Arkansas

We continue to report, in the sixth of a series of papers, new geographic records for millipeds of the state, including noteworthy records for some taxa collected from Crowley’s Ridge in eastern Arkansas. This contribution documents 47 new co. records and includes records for 19 species within 9 families and 5 orders. More uncommon millipeds found included Okliulus carpenteri (Parajulidae), Eurymerodesmus newtonus (Eurymerodesmidae), Pseudopolydesmus minor (Polydesmidae) and undescribed species of Ethojulus (Parajulidae) and Nannaria (Xystodesmidae). Undoubtedly, additional records will be reported in the future as several gaps in the distribution of Arkansas millipeds remain

Experimental and analytical dynamic flow characteristics of an axial-flow fan from an air cushion landing system model

An investigation was conducted to compare the steady-state and dynamic flow characteristics of an axial-flow fan which had been used previously as the air supply fan for some model air cushion landing system studies. Steady-state flow characteristics were determined in the standard manner by using differential orifice pressures for the flow regime from free flow to zero flow. In this same regime, a correlative technique was established so that fan inlet and outlet pressures could be used to measure dynamic flow as created by a rotating damper. Dynamic tests at damper frequencies up to 5 Hz showed very different flow characteristics when compared with steady-state flow, particularly with respect to peak pressures and the pressure-flow relationship at fan stall and unstall. A generalized, rational mathematical fan model was developed based on physical fan parameters and a steady-state flow characteristic. The model showed good correlation with experimental tests at damper frequencies up to 5 Hz