Exiting or Entering the Union: EU Consistency in Accession and Withdrawal Negotiations. College of Europe Policy Brief #14.17, December 2017

Executive Summary The accession process and Brexit largely deal with the same issues. A comparison allows for assessing EU consistency across the two cases: > First, the EU’s decision to act in unity for the rights of EU residents in the UK is a display of solidarity, and should be acknowledged as such. > Second, if the four freedoms of the single market are seen as indivisible in Brexit negotiations, this should also be the case in accession talks. > Third, a solution to the border regulation in Northern Ireland may be inspired by the Annan Plan for the reunification of Cyprus. This would mean applying some parts of EU law to Northern Ireland. > Fourth, regarding the governance of the withdrawal agreement, inspiration can be taken from the association agreements. The Court of Justice of the EU and the Commission could have a stronger role for dispute settlement in the fields of residents’ rights and EU law. Conversely, a Joint Committee with the right of deferral to arbitration or to another dispute settlement mechanism could deal with other issues in the withdrawal agreement. > Finally, while the accession process can take as long as needed for the candidate country to adopt all EU rules, the exit process has a fixed deadline. This should be handled responsibly

Why emotions are key to understanding EU foreign policy

EU foreign policy is often viewed as a rational and technocratic exercise, but do emotions also play a role in shaping foreign policy outcomes? Drawing on a new special issue, Seda Gürkan and Özlem Terzi explain why emotions should be a central focus in EU foreign policy research

NEAR or FEAR: The Security Aspects of EU Enlargement. College of Europe Policy Brief #5, 17 May 2017

Executive Summary. The EU’s enlargement towards the Western Balkans and Turkey would represent an enlargement towards a geographical zone neighbouring instability and insecurity. At the same time, the integration of these countries in the EU would represent the main solution to the security problems that emanate from this region. > Yet, at present, a major obstacle for the EU’s enlargement policy stems from within the Union. > This obstacle can be overcome: ‘enlargement’ can once again bring dynamism into the European integration process, if it is designed to become a solution to the problem of security through solidarity against terror and coordination on migration management. > To this effect, decision-makers in EU institutions and member states need to face the fear that the prospect of another enlargement often represents. Debates about enlargement should be upheld not only by EU policy-makers, but also by academia and civil society organisations. Enlargement concerns Europe’s common future, which needs to be built together

Çukurova Havzası’nda Uyarlanabilir Ağ Tabanlı Bulanık Çıkarım Sistemi Kullanılarak Kuraklığın Tahmini

Yağış miktarındaki azalmalar ve sıcaklıktaki yükselmeler kuraklığın oluşumundaki önemli faktörlerdendir. Kuraklık gerek insanlar için gerekse ekolojik denge için birçok olumsuz etkiyi de beraberinde getirmektedir. Bitki örtüsünün azalması, tarım ürünlerinden elde edilen verimin düşmesi ve temiz su kaynaklarının azalması kuraklığın olumsuz etkilerindendir. Bu çalışmada, kuraklığın hissedildiği bölgelerden biri olan Çukurova Havzası’nda kuraklık tahmini yapılmıştır. Bunun için havzada bulunan farklı meteoroloji istasyonlarına ait aylık ortalama yağış verileri kullanılarak Standart Yağış İndisi (SYİ) yöntemiyle kuraklık analizi yapılmıştır. Analiz sonucunda elde edilen SYİ değerleri kullanılarak Uyarlanabilir Ağ Tabanlı Bulanık Çıkarım Sistemi (ANFIS) yöntemi ile modeller geliştirilmiştir. Geliştirilen modeller içerisinde en uygun sonuçlar 9- aylık SYİ değerleri kullanılarak geliştirilen ANFIS modelinde elde edilmiştir ve bu modelin kullanılabilir olduğu görülmüştür

Monthly Rainfall Estimation Using Data-Mining Process

It is important to accurately estimate rainfall for effective use of water resources and optimal planning of water structures. For this purpose, the models were developed to estimate rainfall in Isparta using the data-mining process. The different input combinations having 1-, 2-, 3- and 4-input parameters were tried using the rainfall values of Senirkent, Uluborlu, Eğirdir, and Yalvaç stations in Isparta. The most appropriate algorithm was determined as multilinear regression among the models developed with various data-mining algorithms. The input parameters of Multilinear Regression model were the monthly rainfall values of Senirkent, Uluborlu and Eğirdir stations. The relative error of this model was calculated as 0.7%. It was shown that the data mining process can be used in estimation of missing rainfall values

Introduction: emotion(al) norms in EUropean foreign policy

This Special Issue examines the nexus between emotions and norms in EUropean foreign policy. Theoretically, building on the existing IR-literature on emotions, the Special Issue distinguishesbetween “emotion norms” (which refer to the appropriate emotional expressions) and “emotional norms” (which refer to the norms that trigger emotional responses). Empirically, the Issue illustrates the different ways in which emotion(al) norms are used at different levels of EUropean foreign policy, i.e. EU, state andsubnational levels. The collection of articles aspires to study the ways in which emotions shape the EU’s external relations focusing on the actors (who mobilize emotions, who are constrained or contested by emotion(al) norms), processes (through which various feelings are produced internally or transmitted externally) and the content of norms linked to emotions. Methodologically, this Special Issue illustrates howemotion(al) norms can be studied through the use of different discourse methods.Security and Global Affair

AKARSULARDAKİ KATI MADDE MİKTARININ YAPAY SİNİR AĞLARI İLE TAHMİNİ: KIZILIRMAK NEHRİ ÖRNEĞİ

Bu çalışmada, son yıllarda su kaynakları mühendisliğinde kullanım alanı geniş olan yapay sinir ağları (YSA) yöntemi katı madde miktarı tahmininde kullanılmıştır. Katı madde tahmini için Kızılırmak Nehri’nde bulunan Yamula gözlem istasyonuna ait 1973-2003 yılları arasında bulunan akım verileri girdi parametresi olarak kullanılarak çeşitli YSA modelleri geliştirilmiştir. Geliştirilen modeller incelendiğinde, YSA yönteminin katı madde tahmininde kullanılabileceği görülmüştür