Prognostic prediction models for pregnancy complications in women with gestational diabetes: a protocol for systematic review, critical appraisal and meta-analysis

Background: Gestational diabetes (GDM) is increasingly common and has significant implications during pregnancy and for the long-term health of the mother and offspring. However, it is a heterogeneous condition with inter-related factors including ethnicity, body mass index and gestational weight gain significantly modifying the absolute risk of complications at an individual level. Predicting the risk of pregnancy complications for an individual woman with GDM presents a useful adjunct to therapeutic decision-making and patient education. Diagnostic prediction models for GDM are prevalent. In contrast, prediction models for risk of complications in those with GDM are relatively novel. This study will systematically review published prognostic prediction models for pregnancy complications in women with GDM, describe their characteristics, compare performance and assess methodological quality and applicability. Methods: Studies will be identified by searching MEDLINE and Embase electronic databases. Title and abstract screening, full-text review and data extraction will be completed independently by two reviewers. The included studies will be systematically assessed for risk of bias and applicability using appropriate tools designed for prediction modelling studies. Extracted data will be tabulated to facilitate qualitative comparison of published prediction models. Quantitative data on predictive performance of these models will be synthesised with meta-analyses if appropriate. Discussion: This review will identify and summarise all published prognostic prediction models for pregnancy complications in women with GDM. We will compare model performance across different settings and populations with meta-analysis if appropriate. This work will guide subsequent phases in the prognosis research framework: further model development, external validation and model updating, and impact assessment. The ultimate model will estimate the absolute risk of pregnancy complications for women with GDM and will be implemented into routine care as an evidence-based GDM complication risk prediction model. It is anticipated to offer value to women and their clinicians with individualised risk assessment and may assist decision-making. Ultimately, this systematic review is an important step towards a personalised risk-stratified model-of-care for GDM to allow preventative and therapeutic interventions for the maximal benefit to women and their offspring, whilst sparing expense and harm for those at low risk.Shamil D. Cooray, Jacqueline A. Boyle, Georgia Soldatos, Lihini A. Wijeyaratne and Helena J. Teed

Knowledge, Attitude, and Self-Reported Practice Towards Measures for Prevention of the Spread of COVID-19 Among Australians: A Nationwide Online Longitudinal Representative Survey

Objective: To assess and share learnings on the motivators and behavioural adherence across sex and age to evolving strategies in public policy to prevent the spread of SARS-CoV-2 at the end of a first COVID-19 wave and the beginning of a second COVID-19 wave in Australia. Design and Setting: A national longitudinal survey using a framework based on evidence-based behaviour change models. The survey was administered to a national sample representative across sex, age and location was undertaken at two time points: May 1st to 5th, 2020, and July 1st to 7th, 2020. Results: Overall 2,056 surveys were completed across the first and second rounds, with 63% (1,296/2,056) completing both. Age range was 18–99 years (median 53, IQR: 34–64). Suboptimal physical distancing and self-quarantining if unwell/diagnosed was reported in one in four respondents and not getting a test at onset of symptoms reported in one in three. Those non-adherent to all three behaviours (19%, 60/323), were mainly male, younger, lived in major cities and reported fewer concerns or motivators to change behaviour. Overall, government lockdown measures were considered very important by 81% (835/1,032) and appropriate by 75% (772/1,029). Conclusions: Prior to the suppression of a second COVID-19 wave, a significant minority of Australians reported suboptimal behavioural adherence to vital policy strategies to limit SARS-CoV-2 spread, mostly young adults and men. Successful wave 2 suppression required consistent communication from political and health leaders and supportive public health and economic strategies. Additional lockdown and punitive strategies were needed in Victoria and were generally well-supported and adhered to. To limit subsequent lockdown, this work reinforces the need for a mix of communication around saving lives of the vulnerable, and other strategies targeting high risk groups, facilitation of easy testing and minimisation of financial impacts

Diet quality in a weight gain prevention trial of reproductive aged women: a secondary analysis of a cluster randomized controlled trial

Reproductive-aged women are at high risk for obesity development. Limited research exploring weight gain prevention initiatives and associated modifiable risk factors, including diet quality exists. In a secondary analysis of a 12 month, cluster randomized controlled trial for weight gain prevention in reproductive-aged women, we evaluated change in diet quality, macronutrient and micronutrient intake, predictors of change and associations with weight change at follow-up. Forty-one rural towns in Victoria, Australia were randomized to a healthy lifestyle intervention (n = 21) or control (n = 20). Women aged 18⁻50, of any body mass index and without conditions known to affect weight, were recruited. Diet quality was assessed by the Dietary Guideline Index (DGI) and energy, macronutrient, and micronutrient intake as well as anthropometrics (weight; kg) were measured at baseline and 12 months. Results were adjusted for group (intervention/control), town cluster, and baseline values of interest. Of 409 women with matched data at baseline and follow-up, 220 women were included for final analysis after accounting for plausible energy intake. At 12 months, diet quality had improved by 6.2% following the intervention, compared to no change observed in the controls (p < 0.001). Significant association was found between a change in weight and a change in diet quality score over time β -0.66 (95%CI -1.2, -0.12) p = 0.02. The percentage of energy from protein (%) 0.009 (95%CI 0.002, 0.15) p = 0.01 and glycemic index -1.2 (95%CI -2.1, -0.24) p = 0.02 were also improved following the intervention, compared to the control group. Overall, a low-intensity lifestyle intervention effectively improves diet quality, with associated weight gain preventions, in women of reproductive age.Julie C. Martin, Lisa J. Moran, Helena J. Teede, Sanjeeva Ranasinha, Catherine B. Lombard and Cheryce L. Harriso

Expectancy after the first treatment and response to acupuncture for menopausal hot flashes

Background: Evidence on the impact of expectancy on acupuncture treatment response is conflicting. Objectives: This secondary analysis of a randomized sham-controlled trial on acupuncture for menopausal hot flashes investigated whether treatment expectancy score was associated with hot flash score at end-of-treatment. Secondary analyses investigated whether there were associations between other pre-specified factors and hot flash score. Study design: Women experiencing moderately-severe hot flashes were randomized to receive 10 sessions of real or sham acupuncture over eight weeks. Hot flash score was collected using a seven-day hot flash diary, and expectancy using the modified Credibility and Expectancy Questionnaire immediately after the first treatment. Linear mixed-effects models with random intercepts were used to identify associations between expectancy score and hot flash score at end-of-treatment. Regression was also used to identify associations between prespecified factors of interest and hot flash score. Because there was no difference between real and sham acupuncture for the primary outcome of hot flash score, both arms were combined in the analysis. Results: 285 women returned the Credibility and Expectancy Questionnaire, and 283 women completed both expectancy measures. We found no evidence for an association between expectancy and hot flash score at end-of-treatment for individual cases in either acupuncture or sham group. Hot flash scores at end-of-treatment were 8.1 (95%CI, 3.0 to 13.2; P = 0.002) points lower in regular smokers compared to those who had never smoked, equivalent to four fewer moderate hot flashes a day. Conclusion: In our study of acupuncture for menopausal hot flashes, higher expectancy after the first treatment did not predict better treatment outcomes. Future research may focus on other determinants of outcomes in acupuncture such as therapist attention. The relationship between smoking and hot flashes is poorly understood and needs further exploration.Carolyn C. Ee, Sharmala Thuraisingam, Marie V. Pirotta, Simon D. French, Charlie C. Xue, Helena J. Teed

Expression of the plasminogen system in the physiological mouse ovary and in the pathological polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) state

BACKGROUND:The fibrinolytic system and its inhibitors play a number of roles, apart from their function in blood haemostasis and thrombosis, namely in ovarian folliculogenesis and in ovulation. Plasminogen is converted to active plasmin at the time of follicular rupture through a decrease in plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 (PAI-1) and an increase in plasminogen activators. Oligo-/anovulation and follicle arrest are key characteristics of PCOS, but studies evaluating fibrinolytic/proteolytic markers within human or animal PCOS ovaries are lacking. We aimed to investigate and compare the expression and distribution of the plasminogen system markers in PCOS and control ovaries. METHODS:A hyperandrogenised PCOS mouse model was used that mimics the ovarian, endocrine and metabolic features of the human condition. Immunohistochemistry and digital image analysis were used to investigate and compare fibrinolytic/proteolytic markers plasminogen, plasminogen/plasmin, tissue plasminogen activator, urokinase plasminogen activator and inhibitor PAI-1 in PCOS and control ovaries. Student's t-test was used to compare data sets for normally distributed data and Wilcoxon-Mann Whitney test for non-normally distributed data. RESULTS:We noted differences in the ovarian distribution of PAI-1 that was expressed throughout the PCOS ovary, unlike the peripheral distribution observed in control ovaries. Plasminogen was present in small follicles only in PCOS ovaries but not in small follicles of control ovaries. When we assessed and compared PAI-1 expression within follicles of different developmental stages we also noted significant differences for both the PCOS and control ovaries. While we noted differences in distribution and expression within specific ovarian structures, no differences were noted in the overall ovarian expression of markers assessed between acyclical PCOS mice and control mice at the diestrus stage of the estrous cycle. CONCLUSIONS:Our novel study, that comprehensively assessed the fibrinolytic/proteolytic system in the mouse ovary, showed the expression, differential localisation and a potential role for the plasminogen system in the physiological mouse ovary and in PCOS. Androgens may be involved in regulating expression of the ovarian plasminogen system. Further studies evaluating these markers at different time-points of ovulation may help to further clarify both physiological and potential pathological actions these markers play in ovulatory processes distorted in PCOS.Genia F. Burchall, Dodie S. Pouniotis, Helena J. Teede, Sanjeeva Ranasinha, Kirsty A. Walters and Terrence J. Piv

Clinical management of pregnancy in women with polycystic ovary syndrome: An expert opinion

First published: 05 April 2022Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is associated with a higher risk for pregnancy and birth complications according to the specific features associated with PCOS. The features include obesity before and during pregnancy, hyperandrogenism, insulin resistance, infertility, cardiometabolic risk factors, and poor mental health. PCOS is not often recognized as a risk factor for poor pregnancy and birth outcomes in pregnancy care guidelines, while its associated features are. Pregnancy‐related risk profile should ideally be assessed for modifiable risk factors (e.g., lifestyle and weight management) at preconception in women with PCOS. Hyperglycaemia should be screened using a 75‐g oral glucose tolerance test at preconception or within the first 20 weeks of pregnancy if it has not been performed at preconception and should be repeated at 24–28 weeks of pregnancy. In the absence of evidence of benefit for strategies specific to women with PCOS, the international evidencebased guidelines for the assessment and management of PCOS recommend screening, optimizing, and monitoring risk profile in women with PCOS (at preconception, during and postpregnancy) consistent with the recommendations for the general population. Recommended factors include blood glucose, weight, blood pressure, smoking, alcohol, diet, exercise, sleep and mental health, emotional, and sexual health among women with PCOS. The guidelines recommend Metformin in addition to lifestyle for assisting with weight management and improving cardiometabolic risk factors, particularly in those with overweight or obesity. Letrozole is considered the first‐line pharmacological treatment for anovulatory infertility in PCOS. Individualized approach should be considered in the management of pregnancy in PCOS.Mahnaz Bahri Khomami, Helena J Teede, Anju E. Joham, Lisa J. Moran, Terhi T. Piltonen, Jacqueline A. Boyl

Lifestyle and psychological factors associated with pregnancy intentions: findings from a Longitudinal Cohort Study of Australian women

BACKGROUND:Preconception is a critical time for the establishment of healthy lifestyle behaviours and psychological well-being to reduce adverse maternal and offspring outcomes. This study aimed to explore relationships between preconception lifestyle and psychological factors and prospectively assessed short- (currently trying to conceive) and long-term (future parenthood aspirations) pregnancy intentions. METHODS:Data from Wave 3 (age 25-30 years; n = 7656) and Wave 5 (age 31-36 years; n = 4735) from the Australian Longitudinal Study of Women's Health were used. Pregnancy intentions and parenthood aspirations were evaluated. Logistic regressions explored cross-sectional associations between demographic, lifestyle and psychological factors and pregnancy intentions/parenthood aspirations. RESULTS:In multivariable models, parity and marital status were associated consistently with pregnancy intentions and parenthood aspirations. Few lifestyle behaviours and no psychological factors were associated with pregnancy intentions. Alcohol intake was the only behaviour associated with aspirations to have a first child. Aspirations for a second/subsequent child were associated negatively with physical activity, sitting time, diet quality, lower anxiety and higher stress. CONCLUSIONS:It appears that women are not changing their behaviours when they form a decision to try to conceive. Interventions are needed that address women's preconception needs, to optimise lifestyle and improve health outcomes for women and their families.Briony Hill, Mathew Ling, Gita Mishra, Lisa J. Moran, Helena J. Teede, Lauren Bruce and Helen Skouteri

Attitudes towards vaccines and intention to vaccinate against COVID-19: a cross-sectional analysis—implications for public health communications in Australia

Objective To examine SARS-CoV-2 vaccine confidence, attitudes and intentions in Australian adults as part of the iCARE Study. Design and setting Cross-sectional online survey conducted when free COVID-19 vaccinations first became available in Australia in February 2021. Participants Total of 1166 Australians from general population aged 18–90 years (mean 52, SD of 19). Main outcome measures Primary outcome: responses to question ‘If a vaccine for COVID-19 were available today, what is the likelihood that you would get vaccinated?’. Secondary outcome: analyses of putative drivers of uptake, including vaccine confidence, socioeconomic status and sources of trust, derived from multiple survey questions. Results Seventy-eight per cent reported being likely to receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. Higher SARS-CoV-2 vaccine intentions were associated with: increasing age (OR: 2.01 (95% CI 1.77 to 2.77)), being male (1.37 (95% CI 1.08 to 1.72)), residing in least disadvantaged area quintile (2.27 (95% CI 1.53 to 3.37)) and a self-perceived high risk of getting COVID-19 (1.52 (95% CI 1.08 to 2.14)). However, 72% did not believe they were at a high risk of getting COVID-19. Findings regarding vaccines in general were similar except there were no sex differences. For both the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine and vaccines in general, there were no differences in intentions to vaccinate as a function of education level, perceived income level and rurality. Knowing that the vaccine is safe and effective and that getting vaccinated will protect others, trusting the company that made it and vaccination recommended by a doctor were reported to influence a large proportion of the study cohort to uptake the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. Seventy-eight per cent reported the intent to continue engaging in virus-protecting behaviours (mask wearing, social distancing, etc) postvaccine. Conclusions Most Australians are likely to receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. Key influencing factors identified (eg, knowing vaccine is safe and effective, and doctor’s recommendation to get vaccinated) can inform public health messaging to enhance vaccination rates

Updated adolescent diagnostic criteria for polycystic ovary syndrome: impact on prevalence and longitudinal body mass index trajectories from birth to adulthood

Background: Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is challenging to diagnose. While the 2003 Rotterdam criteria are widely used for adults, the 2018 international PCOS guideline recommended updated Rotterdam criteria with both hyperandrogenism and oligo-anovulation for adolescents based on evidence-informed expert consensus. This study compared the prevalence of PCOS using updated and original Rotterdam criteria in community-based adolescents and explored long-term body mass index (BMI) trajectories across different diagnostic phenotypes. Methods: Overall, 227 postmenarchal adolescent females from the prospective cohort Raine Study undertook comprehensive PCOS assessment at age 14–16 years. Detailed anthropometric measurements were collected from birth until age 22 years. Cross-sectional and longitudinal BMI were analyzed using t tests and generalized estimating equations. Results: PCOS was diagnosed in 66 (29.1%) participants using original criteria versus 37 (16.3%) participants using updated Rotterdam criteria. Using updated criteria, participants with PCOS had higher BMI than participants without PCOS from prepubertal. Only the phenotype meeting the updated criteria was significantly associated with higher long-term BMI gain whereas other PCOS phenotypes had similar BMI trajectories to participants without PCOS (p < 0.001). Conclusions: The use of the 2018 updated Rotterdam criteria reduces over-diagnosis of PCOS in adolescents and identifies those at the greatest risk of long-term weight gain, a key contributor to disease severity and long-term health implications. The BMI trajectories of females with PCOS on updated criteria diverge prepubertally compared to those without PCOS. This work supports targeting adolescents diagnosed with PCOS on the 2018 updated criteria for early lifestyle interventions to prevent long-term health complications.Chau Thien Tay, Roger J. Hart, Martha Hickey, Lisa J. Moran, Arul Earnest, Dorota A. Doherty, Helena J. Teede and Anju E. Joha

Association between pregnancy intention and psychological distress among women exposed to different levels of restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia.

Background The COVID-19 pandemic has had a negative impact on the mental health of people globally. Significant concerns about health and access to services among women of reproductive age considering pregnancy may cause psychological distress, and in turn increase health risks during and after pregnancy for mothers and offspring. Objectives To examine the association between pregnancy intention and psychological distress during the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia, and explore if this association differed based on local viral transmission rates and corresponding levels of pandemic restrictions. Methods A nationwide online survey was completed by 849 non-pregnant women aged 18–50 years between 15 October and 7 November 2020. Women were asked about their intention to become pregnant, and psychological distress was assessed using the Kessler Psychological Distress Scale (K10). Multivariable regression analysis examined associations between pregnancy intention and psychological distress. An interaction term was added to the model to examine differences in associations by level of viral transmission rates and lockdown restrictions which was determined based on postcode. Results Pregnancy intention was not associated with experiencing (very) high psychological distress in the overall study population (odds ratio (OR) 1.42, 95% CI 0.94, 2.11). The interaction term (p = 0.09) suggested potential differences by level of restrictions and viral transmission rates. In stratified analysis among women living in a location with strict lockdown restrictions and high viral transmission rates leading up to and during the study, those planning to become pregnant were more likely to experience (very) high psychological distress (OR 3.39, 2.04, 5.65) compared with women not planning to become pregnant. Pregnancy intention was not associated with psychological distress among women exposed to lower levels of pandemic restrictions and viral transmission rates (OR 1.17, 0.74, 1.85). Conclusions Our findings highlight the need to identify and support women planning pregnancy during a public health crisis to mitigate potential short- and long-term intergenerational negative health outcomes associated with psychological distress.Danielle A. J. M. Schoenaker, Christie Bennett, Jessica A. Grieger, Cheryce L. Harrison, Briony Hill, Joanne Enticott, Lisa J. Moran, Helena J. Teede, Sharleen L. O, Reilly, Siew Li