A 2-D FEM thermal model to simulate water flow in a porous media: Campi Flegrei caldera case study

Abstract. Volcanic and geothermal aspects both exist in many geologically young areas. In these areas the heat transfer process is of fundamental importance, so that the thermal and fluid-dynamic processes characterizing a viscous fluid in a porous medium are very important to understand the complex dynamics of the these areas. The Campi Flegrei caldera, located west of the city of Naples, within the central-southern sector of the large graben of Campanian plain, is a region where both volcanic and geothermal phenomena are present. The upper part of the geothermal system can be considered roughly as a succession of volcanic porous material (tuff) saturated by a mixture formed mainly by water and carbon dioxide. We have implemented a finite elements approach in transient conditions to simulate water flow in a 2-D porous medium to model the changes of temperature in the geothermal system due to magmatic fluid inflow, accounting for a transient phase, not considered in the analytical solutions and fluid compressibility. The thermal model is described by means of conductive/convective equations, in which we propose a thermal source represented by a parabolic shape function to better simulate an increase of temperature in the central part (magma chamber) of a box, simulating the Campi Flegrei caldera and using more recent evaluations, from literature, for the medium's parameters (specific heat capacity, density, thermal conductivity, permeability). A best-fit velocity for the permeant is evaluated by comparing the simulated temperatures with those measured in wells drilled by Agip (Italian Oil Agency) in the 1980s in the framework of geothermal exploration. A few tens of days are enough to reach the thermal steady state, showing the quick response of the system to heat injection. The increase in the pressure due to the heat transport is then used to compute ground deformation, in particular the vertical displacements characteristics of the Campi Flegrei caldera behaviour. The vertical displacements range from 1 cm to 10 cm in accordance with the mini uplift, characterizing the recent behaviour of the caldera. The time needed to move fluid particles from the bottom to the upper layer (years) is compatible with the timing of the mini uplift

GPS time series at Campi Flegrei caldera (2000-2013)

The Campi Flegrei caldera is an active volcanic system associated to a high volcanic risk, and represents a well known and peculiar example of ground deformations (bradyseism), characterized by intense uplift periods, followed by subsidence phases with some episodic superimposed mini-uplifts. Ground deformation is an important volcanic precursor, and, its continuous monitoring, is one of the main tool for short time forecast of eruptive activity. This paper provides an overview of the continuous GPS monitoring of the Campi Flegrei caldera from January 2000 to July 2013, including network operations, data recording and processing, and data products. In this period the GPS time series allowed continuous and accurate tracking of ground deformation of the area. Seven main uplift episodes were detected, and during each uplift period, the recurrent horizontal displacement pattern, radial from the “caldera center”, suggests no significant change in deformation source geometry and location occurs. The complete archive of GPS time series at Campi Flegrei area is reported in the Supplementary materials. These data can be usefull for the scientific community in improving the research on Campi Flegrei caldera dynamic and hazard assessment

Neapolitan volcanic area Tide Gauge Network (Southern Italy): Ground Displacements and Sea-Level Oscillations

Abstract. In this study, we investigate the oscillations of relative sea level through the analysis of tide gauge records about 10-year long collected in the Gulfs of Pozzuoli and Napoli (Southern Italy). The main goal of this study is to provide a suitable resolution model of the sea tides including low frequency (seiches), tidal bands and non-linear tides. The spectral analyses of the tide gauge records lead us to identify a number of seiche periods some of them already known from the literature and some other unknown. Furthermore, we target a non-conventional purpose of the tidal analysis, namely extracting from the tide gauge records the volcano-tectonic signal (vertical ground displacement) in the resurgent Campi Flegrei caldera. We suggest a method to filter out the volcano-tectonic signal (bradyseism) from the tide gauge records by deconvolving it from two records, one collected in the active volcanic area (Pozzuoli) and the other one collected in a tectonically stable station (Napoli), located beyond the caldera rim. Finally, we retrieve the relative mean sea level change in the Gulf of Naples and compare it with the trend found in five tide gauges spread along the Italian coast

Characterization of GPS time series at the Neapolitan volcanic area by statistical analysis

The GPS time series recorded at the Neapolitan volcanic area reveals a very peculiar behavior. When a clear deformation is observed, the amplitude distribution evolves from a super‐Gaussian to a broader distribution. This behavior can be characterized by evaluating the kurtosis. Spurious periodic components were evidenced by independent component analysis and then removed by filtering the original signal. The time series for all stations was modeled with a fifth‐order polynomial fit, which represents the deformation history at that place. Indeed, when this polynomial is subtracted from the time series, the distributions again become super‐Gaussian. A simulation of the deformation time evolution was performed by superposing a Laplacian noise and a synthetic deformation history. The kurtosis of the obtained signals decreases as the superposition increases, enlightening the insurgence of the deformation. The presented approach represents a contribution aimed at adding further information to the studies about the deformation at the Neapolitan volcanic area by revealing geologically relevant data

Spatial and temporal distribution of vertical ground movements at Mt. Vesuvius in the period 1973-2009

Since the early ’70s vertical ground movements at Mount Vesuvius area have been investigated and monitored by the Osservatorio Vesuviano (Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica Vulcanologia - Osservatorio Vesuviano since 2001). This monitoring began with the installation of a high-precision leveling line in the region at medium-high elevations on the volcano. The deformation pattern and expected strain field assessment methods in the volcanic structure induced by inner sources has demanded in subsequent years the expansion of the leveling network up to cover the whole volcanic area, enclosing part of leveling lines of other institutions. As a result of this expansion, the Mt. Vesuvius Area Leveling Network (VALN) has today reached a length of about 270 km and consists of 359 benchmarks. It is configured in 21 circuits and is connected, westward, to the Campi Flegrei leveling network and, northward, to the Campania Plain leveling network. The data collected have been carefully re-analyzed for random and systematic errors and for error propagation along the leveling lines to identify the areas affected by significant ground movements. For each survey, the data were rigorously adjusted and vertical ground movements were evaluated by differentiating the heights calculated by the various measurements conducted by the Osservatorio Vesuviano from 1973 to 2009

Ground deformation analysis at Campi Flegrei (Southern Italy) by CGPS and tide-gauge network

Campi Flegrei caldera is located 15 km west of the city of Naples, within the central-southern sector of a large graben called Campanian Plain. It is an active volcanic area marked by a quasi-circular caldera depression, formed by a huge ignimbritic eruption occurred about 37000 years ago. This caldera was generated by several collapses produced by strong explosive eruptions (the last eruption, occurred in 1538, built an about 130 m spatter cone called Mt. Nuovo). Campi Flegrei area periodically experiences significant deformation episodes, with uplift phenomena up to more than 3.5 m in 15 years (from 1970 to 1984), which caused during 1983-84 the temporary evacuation of about 40000 people from the ancient part of Pozzuoli town. The deformation field obtainable by CGPS and tidegauge stations plays an important role for the modelling and interpretation of volcanic phenomena, as well as for forecasting purposes. The structural complexity of the Campi Flegrei area, together with the evidence of a strong interaction between magmatic chamber and shallow geothermal system, calls for a detailed characterization of the substructure and of magma-water interaction processes. The incoming experiment of deep drilling, down to about 4 km, will give detailed structural and physical constraints able to resolve the intrinsic ambiguities of geophysical data and in particular geodetic ones. In this poster we describe the recent ground deformations at Campi Flegrei area by means of GPS technique and tide gauge stations, discussing the possible interpretations also in light of further constraints likely coming from the next CFDDP (Campi Flegrei Deep Drilling) deep drilling experiment

3D change detection analysis of a coastal landslide performed by multi-temporal point clouds comparison

The structure from motion (SfM) photogrammetric technique (FONSTAD et al., 2013) has become a suitable method to obtain high resolution topography data in a wide range of geomorphic environments (PASSALACQUA et al., 2015). SfM is designed to reconstruct the three-dimensional geometry of buildings and objects from randomly acquired images, and represents a low cost option respect to traditional photogrammetric and lidar techniques (FONSTAD et al., 2013). In this way, also the 3D geometry of complex natural surfaces can be achieved with a horizontal and vertical accuracy which depend on the choice of sensor for images acquisition, platform (e.g., UAV, boat, vehicle), and method of assignment of geodetic coordinates to the digital data. In advanced geomorphic applications, repeated photogrammetric surveys at different times allow to detect topographic changes in order to map or monitor erosion, deposition and develop sediment budgets. In this work we present a 3D change detection analysis related to a coastal landslide occurred on 27th October 2013 along the coastal sector of the Campi Flegrei volcanic district, Southern Italy (ESPOSITO et al., 2015). A total of four photogrammetric surveys have been carried out in about two years (Fig. 1), by using a UAV platform for one survey and boats for the other three. In order to accurately define the exterior orientation of images, a topographic survey was also carried out, measuring a series of natural and artificial ground control points external to the landslide area with a long-range Total Station. Images were processed using Agisoft PhotoScan® (http://www.agisoft.com), and 3D point clouds were compared through the "Multiscale Model to Model Cloud Comparison (M3C2)" plugin (LAGUE et al., 2013) included in CloudCompare open source software (http://www.danielgm.net/cc/). The plugin allowed us to estimate orthogonal distances between multitemporal point clouds as well as uncertainty related to each distance measurement. SfM processing of each survey resulted in dense point clouds and high-resolution orthophotos. An average coregistration error between clouds was estimated as 11 cm. As output of the M3C2 distance computation we obtained three new clouds in which each point was characterized by distance and uncertainty attributes (Fig. 2). Points corresponding to statistically significant changes were exported and interpolated in ESRI ArcGis® for volume calculation. Volumetric data show that the landslide deposit at cliff toe was progressively eroded by the sea, while landslide scar was affected by a moderate erosion in the first three months after the 2013 landslide event, as well as by a deep erosion between the second and third surveys. Nevertheless, a negligible eroded volume between 2015 and 2016 surveys was estimated in this area. Deposited sediments decreased through time in the whole landslide area so that, generally, a geomorphic evolution moving towards an equilibrium condition seems to be taking place. The study here described highlights a high potentiality of the SfM and cloud-to-cloud distance computation techniques in geomorphology, both for accurate qualitative and quantitative analysis and for hazard and risk assessment. The studied landslide threats indeed a series of residential buildings located close to the retreating cliff edge