Different heuristics and same bias: A spectral analysis of biased judgments and individual decision rules

We used correlation and spectral analyses to investigate the cognitive structures and processes producing biased judgments. We used 5 different sets of driving problems to exemplify problems that trigger biases, specifically: (1) underestimation of the impact of occasional slow speeds on mean speed judgments, (2) overestimation of braking capacity after a speed increase, (3) the time saving bias (overestimation of the time saved by increasing a high speed further, and underestimation of time saved when increasing a low speed), (4) underestimation of increase of fatal accident risk when speed is increased, and (5) underestimation of the increase of stopping distance when speed is increased. The results verified the predicted biases. A correlation analysis found no strong links between biases; only accident risk and stopping distance biases were correlated significantly. Spectral analysis of judgments was used to identify different decision rules. Most participants were consistent in their use of a single rule within a problem set with the same bias. The participants used difference, average, weighed average and ratio rules, all producing biased judgments. Among the rules, difference rules were used most frequently across the different biases. We found no personal consistency in the rules used across problem sets. The complexity of rules varied across problem sets for most participants

Dynamical frustration in ANNNI model and annealing

Zero temperature quench in the Axial Next Nearest Neighbour Ising (ANNNI) model fails to bring it to its ground state for a certain range of values of the frustration parameter $\kappa$, the ratio of the next nearest neighbour antiferromagnetic interaction strength to the nearest neighbour one. We apply several annealing methods, both classical and quantum, and observe that the behaviour of the residual energy and the order parameter depends on the value of $\kappa$ strongly. Classical or thermal annealing is found to be adequate for small values of $\kappa$. However, neither classical nor quantum annealing is effective at values of $\kappa$ close to the fully frustrated point $\kappa=0.5$, where the residual energy shows a very slow algebraic decay with the number of MCS.Comment: 6 pages,10 figures, to be published in Proceedings of " The International Workshop on Quantum annealing and other Optimization Methods

Ethical Decision Making and Leadership Stress

The theme of this entry is how ethical decisionmaking is influenced by leadership stress. From a traditional point of view, stress is seen as a potential threat to leaders’ ethical decisions (Selart and Johansen 2011). There is substantial evidence suggesting that stress has a negative impact on leaders’ cognition and information processing, leading to errors and biases in their decisionmaking. However, it must be pointed out that in many types of professions (e.g., chief pilots, chief surgeons, and chief fire officers) leaders are more or less bound to develop advanced levels of stresstolerance in order to function ethically. This implies that stress does not always have to result in unethical decisions among leaders (Klein 1996). The structure of this entry is organized such that its first part is devoted to clarification of the relationship between ethical decision-making and leadership, while the second part is focused on how stress adds to this relationship

Characteristics of a population-based multiple sclerosis cohort treated with disease-modifying drugs in a universal healthcare setting

BACKGROUND: Relatively little is known about the use of disease-modifying drugs (DMDs) for multiple sclerosis (MS) in the population-based universal healthcare setting. This study aimed to describe the characteristics of a population-based cohort with MS and their DMD exposure in four Canadian provinces. METHODS: We identified all adults (aged ≥18 years) with MS using linked population-based health administrative data. Individuals were followed from the most recent of their first MS or demyelinating event or 1 January 1996(study entry), to the earliest of death, emigration, or 31 March 2018(study end). Cohort characteristics examined included sex, age, socioeconomic status, and comorbidity burden. RESULTS: Overall, 10,418/35,894 (29%) of MS cases filled a DMD prescription during the 22-year study period. Most were women (n = 7,683/10,418;74%), and 17% (n = 1,745/10,418) had some comorbidity (Charlson Comorbidity Index≥1) at study entry. Nearly 20% (n = 1,745/10,418) were aged ≥50 when filling their first DMD; the mean age was 39.6 years. CONCLUSIONS: Almost 1 in 6 people with MS had at least some comorbidity, and nearly 1 in 6 were ≥50 years old at the time of their first DMD. As these individuals are typically excluded from clinical trials, findings illustrate the need to understand the harms and benefits of DMD use in these understudied groups

Relaxation and Metastability in the RandomWalkSAT search procedure

An analysis of the average properties of a local search resolution procedure for the satisfaction of random Boolean constraints is presented. Depending on the ratio alpha of constraints per variable, resolution takes a time T_res growing linearly (T_res \sim tau(alpha) N, alpha < alpha_d) or exponentially (T_res \sim exp(N zeta(alpha)), alpha > alpha_d) with the size N of the instance. The relaxation time tau(alpha) in the linear phase is calculated through a systematic expansion scheme based on a quantum formulation of the evolution operator. For alpha > alpha_d, the system is trapped in some metastable state, and resolution occurs from escape from this state through crossing of a large barrier. An annealed calculation of the height zeta(alpha) of this barrier is proposed. The polynomial/exponentiel cross-over alpha_d is not related to the onset of clustering among solutions.Comment: 23 pages, 11 figures. A mistake in sec. IV.B has been correcte

Using the stated preference method for the calculation of social discount rate

The aim of this paper is to build the stated preference method into the social discount rate methodology. The first part of the paper presents the results of a survey about stated time preferences through pair-choice decision situations for various topics and time horizons. It is assumed that stated time preferences differ from calculated time preferences and that the extent of stated rates depends on the time period, and on how much respondents are financially and emotionally involved in the transactions. A significant question remains: how can the gap between the calculation and the results of surveys be resolved, and how can the real time preferences of individuals be interpreted using a social time preference rate. The second part of the paper estimates the social time preference rate for Hungary using the results of the survey, while paying special attention to the pure time preference component. The results suggest that the current method of calculation of the pure time preference rate does not reflect the real attitudes of individuals towards future generations

Discovery of Ircinianin Lactones B and C: two new cyclic sesterterpenes from the marine sponge Ircinia wistarii

Two new ircinianin-type sesterterpenoids, ircinianin lactone B and ircinianin lactone C (7 and 8), together with five known entities from the ircinianin compound family (1, 3-6) were isolated from the marine sponge Ircinia wistarii. Ircinianin lactones B and C (7 and 8) represent new ircinianin terpenoids with a modified oxidation pattern. Despite their labile nature, the structures could be established using a combination of spectroscopic data, including HRESIMS and 1D/2D NMR techniques, as well as computational chemistry and quantum-mechanical calculations. In a broad screening approach for biological activity, the class-defining compound ircinianin (1) showed moderate antiprotozoal activity against Plasmodium falciparum (IC50 25.4 μM) and Leishmania donovani (IC50 16.6 μM)

When Flexibility Is Stable: Implicit Long-Term Shaping of Olfactory Preferences

Preferences are traditionally assumed to be stable. However, empirical evidence such as preference modulation following choices calls this assumption into question. The evolution of such postchoice preference over long time spans, even when choices have been explicitly forgotten, has so far not been studied. In two experiments, we investigated this question by using a variant of the free choice paradigm: In a first session, participants evaluated the pleasantness of a number of odors. We then formed pairs of similarly rated odors, and asked participants to choose their favorite, for each pair. Participants were then presented with all odors again, and asked for another pleasantness rating. In a second session 1 week later, a third pleasantness rating was obtained, and participants were again asked to choose between the same options. Results suggested postchoice preference modulation immediately and 1 week after choice for both chosen and rejected options, even when choices were not explicitly remembered. A third experiment, using another paradigm, confirmed that choice can have a modulatory impact on preferences, and that this modulation can be long-lasting. Taken together, these findings suggest that although preferences appear to be flexible because they are modulated by choices, this modulation also appears to be stable over time and even without explicit recollection of the choice. These results bring a new argument to the idea that postchoice preference modulation could rely on implicit mechanisms, and are consistent with the recent proposal that cognitive dissonance reduction could to some extent be implicit

Influence of operating parameters on the biodegradation of steroid estrogens and nonylphenolic compounds during biological wastewater treatment processes

This document is the unedited author's version of a Submitted Work that was subsequently accepted for publication in Environmental Science & Technology, copyright © American Chemical Society after peer review. To access the final edited and published work see http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/es901612v.This study investigated operational factors influencing the removal of steroid estrogens and nonylphenolic compounds in two sewage treatment works, one a nitrifying/denitrifying activated sludge plant and the other a nitrifying/denitrifying activated sludge plant with phosphorus removal. Removal efficiencies of >90% for steroid estrogens and for longer chain nonylphenol ethoxylates (NP4−12EO) were observed at both works, which had equal sludge ages of 13 days. However, the biological activity in terms of milligrams of estrogen removed per day per tonne of biomass was found to be 50−60% more efficient in the nitrifying/denitrifying activated sludge works compared to the works which additionally incorporated phosphorus removal. A temperature reduction of 6 °C had no impact on the removal of free estrogens, but removal of the conjugated estrone-3-sulfate was reduced by 20%. The apparent biomass sorption (LogKp) values were greater in the nitrifying/denitrifying works than those in the nitrifying/denitrifying works with phosphorus removal for both steroid estrogens and nonylphenolic compounds possibly indicating a different cell surface structure and therefore microbial population. The difference in biological activity (mg tonne−1 d−1) identified in this study, of up to seven times, suggests that there is the potential for enhancing the removal of estrogens and nonylphenols if more detailed knowledge of the factors responsible for these differences can be identified and maximized, thus potentially improving the quality of receiving waters.Public Utilities Board (Singapore), Anglian Water Ltd, Severn Trent Water Ltd, Thames Water Utilities Ltd, United Utilities 393 Plc and Yorkshire Water Services

Self-Confidence and Strategic Behavior

We test experimentally an explanation of over and under confidence as motivated by (perhaps unconscious) strategic concerns, and find compelling evidence supporting this hypothesis in the behavior of participants who send and respond to others' statements of confidence about how well they have scored on an IQ test. In two-player tournaments where the highest score wins, one is likely to enter at equilibrium when he knows that his stated confidence is higher than the other player's, but very unlikely when the reverse is true. Consistent with this behavior, stated confidence by males is inflated when deterrence is strategically optimal and is instead deflated by males and females when hustling (encouraging entry) is strategically optimal. This behavior is consistent with the equilibrium of the corresponding signaling game. Based on the theory of salient perturbations, we propose a strategic foundation of overconfidence. Since overconfident statements are used in familiar situations in which it is strategically effective, it may also occur in the absence of strategic benefits, provided the environment is similar