Inter-regional comparison of climate effects on marine fish populations facilitated through classification of mechanisms

Variations in climate strongly affect the structure and function of marine ecosystems, but a number of different mechanisms are at play and their relative importance varies between regions and with time. There are obvious semi-permanent regional differences in how marine populations respond to climate, but there may also be long-term trends either in climate itself or in the response pattern. In some cases single strong climate events may shift an ecosystem from one state to another (e.g., El Niño). To facilitate comparison between different large marine ecosystems we here give an overview of some of the manners in which one can classify how marine fish populations are affected by climate. Responses to climate fluctuations may be bottom-up, top-down or middle-out, immediate or temporally delayed, direct or via an intermediate population of predators, prey or competitors. Climate may invoke a linear or non-linear effect at the population or community level. Ecological effects of the NAO have been classified according to the four major classes: direct effects, indirect effects, integrated effects and translations, which also may be applied to other climate patterns and regions. By using classification schemes a more precise description of the particular properties of the various ecosystems may be possible. This approach enhances the possibility to compare between regions that may differ not only with regards to the relative importance of different climate factors for ecology, but also through dissimilarities in scientific tradition and terminology. Keywords: Climate, fish, population dynamics, mechanism, comparative approac

Desert locust populations, rainfall and climate change: insights from phenomenological models using gridded monthly data

Using autocorrelation analysis and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA)modelling, we analysed a time series of the monthly number of 1° grid squares infested with desert locust Schistocerca gregaria swarms throughout the geographical range of the species from 1930–1987. Statistically significant first- and higher-order autocorrelations were found in the series. Although endogenous components captured much of the variance, adding rainfall data improved endogenous ARIMA models and resulted in more realistic forecasts. Using a square-root transformation for the locust data improved the fit. The models were only partially successful when accounting for the dramatic changes in abundance which may occur during locust upsurges and declines, in some cases successfully predicting these phenomena but underestimating their severity. Better fitting models were also produced when rainfall data were added to models of an equivalent series for desert locust hoppers (nymphs) that incorporated lagged data for locust swarms as independent variables, representing parent generations. The results are discussed in relation to predicting likely changes in desert locust dynamics with reference to potential effects of climate change

Fundamental population-productivity relationships can be modified through density-dependent feedbacks of life-history evolution.

Peer reviewe

Community-based Knowledge of Indigenous Vegetation in Arid African Landscapes

This article is based on comparative research conducted in three African countries—Mali, Botswana and Kenya—between 2006 and 2007. The research focuses on local perceptions of biodiversity loss and land degradation in grazing pastures as a result of anthropogenic activities. We show that land degradation can be motivated by climate change, while local overuse of indigenous vegetation can lead to resource conflict. We then examine how changes in indigenous vegetation might influence the livelihood and security of local communities. In drawing key findings common to all three countries, we suggest that the sustainability of indigenous vegetation in dryland ecosystems can be maintained through seasonal mobility of herds, preservation of dry season grazing and improved livestock marketing, and that failure to do so can result in far-reaching consequences for rural communities

The End of Plague in Europe

publishedVersio

The Bioeconomics of Controlling an African Rodent Pest Species

The paper treats the economy of controlling an African pest rodent, the multimammate rat, causing major damage in maize production. An ecological population model is presented and used as a basis for the economic analyses carried out at the village level using data from Tanzania. This model incorporates both density-dependent and density-independent (stochastic) factors. Rodents are controlled by applying poison, and the economic benefits depend on the income from maize production minus the costs for maize production, fertiliser and poison. We analyse how the net present value of maize production is affected by various rodent control strategies, by varying the duration and timing of rodenticide application. Our numerical results suggest that, in association with fertiliser, it is economically beneficial to control the rodent population. In general the most rewarding duration of controlling the rodent population is 3-4 months every year, and especially at the end of the dry season/beginning of rainy season. The paper demonstrates that changing from todays practice of symptomatic treatment when heavy rodent damage is noticed to a practice where the calendar is emphasised, may substantially improve the economic conditions for the maize producing farmers. This main conclusion is quite robust and not much affected by changing prices and costs of the maize production.bio-economics; pest control; multimammate rat; crop production

Where could catch shares prevent stock collapse?

In a widely received study (Science 321: 1678–1681) Costello and his colleagues found that catch shares give better stock persistence and higher catch for fishermen. The conclusions made by Costello et al were further being supported by Grafton and McIlgrom (Marine Policy 33: 714– 719) where they suggested a framework in order to determine the costs and benefits of separate ITQ management in seven Australian commonwealth fisheries, and what the alternatives should be if the net benefits do not justify ITQs. This raises the question why we do not see catch shares being used more often. We explore at a global scale which countries would have the potential for – and indeed do fulfil the conditions necessary to implement such a management strategy

Modeling the Process of Speciation Using a Multiscale Framework Including A Posteriori Error Estimates

This paper concerns the modeling and numerical simulation of the process of speciation. In particular, given conditions for which one or more speciation events within an ecosystem occur, our aim is to develop the necessary modeling and simulation tools. Care is also taken to establish a solid mathematical foundation on which our modeling framework is built. This is the subject of the first half of the paper. The second half is devoted to developing a multiscale framework for eco-evolutionary modeling, where the relevant scales are that of species and individual/population, respectively. The species level model we employ can be considered as an extension of the classical Lotka--Volterra model, where in addition to the species abundance, the model also governs the evolution of the species mean traits and species trait covariances and in this sense generalizes the purely ecological Lotka--Volterra model to an eco-evolutionary model. Although the model thus allows for evolving species, it does not (by construction) allow for the branching of species, i.e., speciation events. The reason for this is related to that of separate scales; the unit of species is too coarse to capture the fine-scale dynamics of a speciation event. Instead, the branching species should be regarded as a population of individuals moving along a selection of trait axes (i.e., trait-space). For this, we employ a trait-specific population density model governing the dynamics of the population density as a function of evolutionary traits. At this scale there is no a priori definition of species, but both species and speciation may be defined a posteriori as, e.g., local maxima and saddle points of the population density, respectively. Hence, a system of interacting species can be described at the species level, while for branching species a population level description is necessary. Our multiscale framework thus consists of coupling the species and population level models where speciation events are detected in advance and then resolved at the population scale until the branching is complete. Moreover, since the population level model is formulated as a PDE, we first establish the well-posedness in the time-discrete setting and then derive the a posteriori error estimates, which provides a fully computable upper bound on an energy-type error, including also for the case of general smooth distributions (which will be useful for the detection of speciation events). Several numerical tests validate our framework in practice.publishedVersio

Non-cooperative exploitation of multi-cohort fisheries — the role of gear selectivity in the North-East Arctic cod fishery

North-East Arctic cod is shared by Russia and Norway. Taking its multi-cohort structure into account, how would optimal management look like? How would non-cooperative exploitation limit the obtainable profits? To which extent could the strategic situation explain today’s over- harvesting? Simulation of a detailed bio-economic model reveals that the mesh size should be significantly increased, resulting not only in a doubling of economic gains, but also in a biologi- cally healthier age-structure of the stock. The Nash Equilibrium is close to the current regime. Even when effort is fixed to its optimal level, the non-cooperative choice of gear selectivity leads to a large dissipation of rents

Harvest-induced disruptive selection increases variance in fitness-related traits

The form of Darwinian selection has important ecological and management implications. Negative effects of harvesting are often ascribed to size truncation (i.e. strictly directional selection against large individuals) and resultant decrease in trait variability, which depresses capacity to buffer environmental change, hinders evolutionary rebound and ultimately impairs population recovery. However, the exact form of harvest-induced selection is generally unknown and the effects of harvest on trait variability remain unexplored. Here we use unique data from the Windermere (UK) long-term ecological experiment to show in a top predator (pike, Esox lucius) that the fishery does not induce size truncation but disruptive (diversifying) selection, and does not decrease but rather increases variability in pike somatic growth rate and size at age. This result is supported by complementary modelling approaches removing the effects of catch selectivity, selection prior to the catch and environmental variation. Therefore, fishing most likely increased genetic variability for somatic growth in pike and presumably favoured an observed rapid evolutionary rebound after fishery relaxation. Inference about the mechanisms through which harvesting negatively affects population numbers and recovery should systematically be based on a measure of the exact form of selection. From a management perspective, disruptive harvesting necessitates combining a preservation of large individuals with moderate exploitation rates, and thus provides a comprehensive tool for sustainable exploitation of natural resources