Connecting ocean circulation with ocean heat storage: experiments with an idealised aquaplanet model

Global warming is really 'ocean warming' as ~93% of the excess heat energy entering the climate system is taken up by the oceans. The heat storage distribution is highly nonuniform in space, affected by a multitude of ocean heat uptake (OHU) processes across many spatial scales. These processes contribute to a substantial spread in climate model projections of future heat storage, sea-level rise, and surface warming. A better understanding of OHU processes is essential in order to reduce our uncertainty in climate projections. I probe OHU processes using a coupled climate model with idealised geometry ('Double-Drake') under an abrupt CO2-doubling. By projecting the Double-Drake circulation onto depth-temperature coordinates, I find that the ocean circulation response leads to an increase in the downward vertical heat transport of ~0.2 W/m^2, enabling more interior heat storage. This supports the idea that changes in ocean circulation may further reinforce the ocean's role as a buffer of surface warming. I examine in more detail the circulation response of an analogous Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in Double-Drake. Many models project a weakening of the AMOC in the future, where the implications for ocean warming are highly uncertain. I find that the link between the AMOC and heat storage rate is counterintuitive in Double-Drake and that AMOC weakening may not be as important as traditionally thought. Finally, I explore the representation of OHU in two-layer energy-balance models (EBMs) and find that increasing/decreasing the sensitivity of OHU to the stratification in the EBM improves/worsens the representation for Double-Drake and a suite of other coupled climate models. This suggests that improving OHU representation might be achieved via a simple change to the two-layer EBM. The results reaffirm that an understanding of OHU is incomplete without a grasp of the underlying ocean circulation processes.Open Acces

Ocean heat storage rate unaffected by MOC weakening in an idealized climate model

To study the role of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in climate change, we perform an abrupt CO2-doubling experiment using a coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice model with a simple geometry that separates the ocean into small and large basins. As in observations and high-end climate models, the small basin exhibits a MOC and warms at a faster rate than the large basin. In our set-up, this contrast in heat storage rates is 0.6 ± 0.1 W m2, and we argue that this is due to the small basin MOC. However, the MOC weakens significantly, yet this has little impact on the small basin’s heat storage rate. We find this is due to the effects of both compensating warming pat- 22 terns and interbasin heat transports. Thus, although the presence of a MOC is important for enhanced heat storage, MOC weakening is surprisingly unimportant

Future projections of temperature and mixing regime of European temperate lakes

The physical response of lakes to climate warming is regionally variable and highly dependent on individual lake characteristics, making generalizations about their development difficult. To qualify the role of individual lake characteristics in their response to regionally homogeneous warming, we simulated temperature, ice cover, and mixing in four intensively studied German lakes of varying morphology and mixing regime with a one-dimensional lake model. We forced the model with an ensemble of 12 climate projections (RCP4.5) up to 2100. The lakes were projected to warm at 0.10–0.11&thinsp;∘C&thinsp;decade−1, which is 75&thinsp;%–90&thinsp;% of the projected air temperature trend. In simulations, surface temperatures increased strongly in winter and spring, but little or not at all in summer and autumn. Mean bottom temperatures were projected to increase in all lakes, with steeper trends in winter and in shallower lakes. Modelled ice thaw and summer stratification advanced by 1.5–2.2 and 1.4–1.8 days&thinsp;decade−1 respectively, whereas autumn turnover and winter freeze timing was less sensitive. The projected summer mixed-layer depth was unaffected by warming but sensitive to changes in water transparency. By mid-century, the frequency of ice and stratification-free winters was projected to increase by about 20&thinsp;%, making ice cover rare and shifting the two deeper dimictic lakes to a predominantly monomictic regime. The polymictic lake was unlikely to become dimictic by the end of the century. A sensitivity analysis predicted that decreasing transparency would dampen the effect of warming on mean temperature but amplify its effect on stratification. However, this interaction was only predicted to occur in clear lakes, and not in the study lakes at their historical transparency. Not only lake morphology, but also mixing regime determines how heat is stored and ultimately how lakes respond to climate warming. Seasonal differences in climate warming rates are thus important and require more attention.</p

Cubic optical nonlinearity of free electrons in bulk gold

A fast (τresponse &lt;90 fs) free-electron spin-flipping frequency-degenerate nonlinearity with a significant value of |χ(3)xxyy(ω,ω,ω,-ω) χ(3)xyyx(ω,ω,ω,-ω)| ~ 10-8 esu has been observed in bulk gold at 1260 nm by use of a new pump-probe polarization-sensitive technique. <br/

Multi-model projections of future evaporation in a sub-tropical lake

Lake evaporation plays an important role in the water budget of lakes. Predicting lake evaporation responses to climate change is thus of paramount importance for the planning of mitigation and adaption strategies. However, most studies that have simulated climate change impacts on lake evaporation have typically utilised a single mechanistic model. Whilst such studies have merit, projected changes in lake evaporation from any single lake model can be considered uncertain. To better understand evaporation responses to climate change, a multi-model approach (i.e., where a range of projections are considered), is desirable. In this study, we present such multi-model analysis, where five lake models forced by four different climate model projections are used to simulate historic and future change (1901–2099) in lake evaporation. Our investigation, which focuses on sub-tropical Lake Kinneret (Israel), suggested considerable differences in simulated evaporation rates among the models, with the annual average evaporation rates varying between 1232 mm year−1 and 2608 mm year−1 during the historic period (1901–2005). We explored these differences by comparing the models with reference evaporation rates estimated using in-situ data (2000–2005) and a bulk aerodynamic algorithm. We found that the model ensemble generally captured the intra-annual variability in reference evaporation rates, and compared well at seasonal timescales (RMSEc = 0.19, R = 0.92). Using the model ensemble, we then projected future change in evaporation rates under three different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios: RCP 2.6, 6.0 and 8.5. Our projections indicated that, by the end of the 21st century (2070–2099), annual average evaporation rates would increase in Lake Kinneret by 9–22 % under RCPs 2.6–8.5. When compared with projected regional declines in precipitation, our projections suggested that the water balance of Lake Kinneret could experience a deficit of 14–40 % this century. We anticipate this substantial projected deficit combined with a considerable growth in population expected for this region could have considerable negative impacts on water availability and would consequently increase regional water stress

Lake heatwaves under climate change

Lake ecosystems, and the organisms that live within them, are vulnerable to temperature change1,2,3,4,5, including the increased occurrence of thermal extremes6. However, very little is known about lake heatwaves—periods of extreme warm lake surface water temperature—and how they may change under global warming. Here we use satellite observations and a numerical model to investigate changes in lake heatwaves for hundreds of lakes worldwide from 1901 to 2099. We show that lake heatwaves will become hotter and longer by the end of the twenty-first century. For the high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5), the average intensity of lake heatwaves, defined relative to the historical period (1970 to 1999), will increase from 3.7 ± 0.1 to 5.4 ± 0.8 degrees Celsius and their average duration will increase dramatically from 7.7 ± 0.4 to 95.5 ± 35.3 days. In the low-greenhouse-gas-emission RCP 2.6 scenario, heatwave intensity and duration will increase to 4.0 ± 0.2 degrees Celsius and 27.0 ± 7.6 days, respectively. Surface heatwaves are longer-lasting but less intense in deeper lakes (up to 60 metres deep) than in shallower lakes during both historic and future periods. As lakes warm during the twenty-first century7,8, their heatwaves will begin to extend across multiple seasons, with some lakes reaching a permanent heatwave state. Lake heatwaves are likely to exacerbate the adverse effects of long-term warming in lakes and exert widespread influence on their physical structure and chemical properties. Lake heatwaves could alter species composition by pushing aquatic species and ecosystems to the limits of their resilience. This in turn could threaten lake biodiversity9 and the key ecological and economic benefits that lakes provide to society

Planktonic events may cause polymictic-dimictic regime shifts in temperate lakes

Water transparency affects the thermal structure of lakes, and within certain lake depth ranges, it can determine whether a lake mixes regularly (polymictic regime) or stratifies continuously (dimictic regime) from spring through summer. Phytoplankton biomass can influence transparency but the effect of its seasonal pattern on stratification is unknown. Therefore we analysed long term field data from two lakes of similar depth, transparency and climate but one polymictic and one dimictic, and simulated a conceptual lake with a hydrodynamic model. Transparency in the study lakes was typically low during spring and summer blooms and high in between during the clear water phase (CWP), caused when zooplankton graze the spring bloom. The effect of variability of transparency on thermal structure was stronger at intermediate transparency and stronger during a critical window in spring when the rate of lake warming is highest. Whereas the spring bloom strengthened stratification in spring, the CWP weakened it in summer. The presence or absence of the CWP influenced stratification duration and under some conditions determined the mixing regime. Therefore seasonal plankton dynamics, including biotic interactions that suppress the CWP, can influence lake temperatures, stratification duration, and potentially also the mixing regime

Screening for malnutrition in patients with gastro-entero-pancreatic neuroendocrine tumours : a cross-sectional study

Objectives To investigate whether screening for malnutrition using the validated malnutrition universal screening tool (MUST) identifies specific characteristics of patients at risk, in patients with gastro-entero-pancreatic neuroendocrine tumours (GEP-NET). Design Cross-sectional study. Setting University Hospitals Coventry & Warwickshire NHS Trust; European Neuroendocrine Tumour Society Centre of Excellence. Participants Patients with confirmed GEP-NET (n=161) of varying primary tumour sites, functioning status, grading, staging and treatment modalities. Main outcome measure To identify disease and treatment-related characteristics of patients with GEP-NET who score using MUST, and should be directed to detailed nutritional assessment. Results MUST score was positive (≥1) in 14% of outpatients with GEP-NET. MUST-positive patients had lower faecal elastase concentrations compared to MUST-negative patients (244±37 vs 383±20 µg/g stool; p=0.018), and were more likely to be on treatment with long-acting somatostatin analogues (65 vs 38%, p=0.021). MUST-positive patients were also more likely to have rectal or unknown primary NET, whereas, frequencies of other GEP-NET including pancreatic NET were comparable between MUST-positive and MUST-negative patients. Conclusions Given the frequency of patients identified at malnutrition risk using MUST in our relatively large and diverse GEP-NET cohort and the clinical implications of detecting malnutrition early, we recommend routine use of malnutrition screening in all patients with GEP-NET, and particularly in patients who are treated with long-acting somatostatin analogues

LakeEnsemblR: an R package that facilitates ensemble modelling of lakes

Model ensembles have several benefits compared to single-model applications but are not frequently used within the lake modelling community. Setting up and running multiple lake models can be challenging and time consuming, despite the many similarities between the existing models (forcing data, hypsograph, etc.). Here we present an R package, LakeEnsemblR, that facilitates running ensembles of five different vertical one-dimensional hydrodynamic lake models (FLake, GLM, GOTM, Simstrat, MyLake). The package requires input in a standardised format and a single configuration file. LakeEnsemblR formats these files to the input required by each model, and provides functions to run and calibrate the models. The outputs of the different models are compiled into a single file, and several post-processing operations are supported. LakeEnsemblR's workflow standardisation can simplify model benchmarking and uncertainty quantification, and improve collaborations between scientists. We showcase the successful application of LakeEnsemblR for two different lakes