Técnica de identificação de modelos lineares e não-lineares de séries temporais

FAPESP - FUNDAÇÃO DE AMPARO À PESQUISA DO ESTADO DE SÃO PAULOCNPQ - CONSELHO NACIONAL DE DESENVOLVIMENTO CIENTÍFICO E TECNOLÓGICOFINEP – FINANCIADORA DE ESTUDOS E PROJETOSIn this work, an algorithm for identifying time series models is proposed. The strategy is based on Partial Mutual Information Criterion (PMI), which considers not only linear but also non-linear relations between variables under study. For calculating the PMI criterion, it is necessary to approximate marginal and joint probability densities, as well as conditional expected values. In this work, these operators are estimated using the city-block distance function and product multivariate kernel estimators. The algorithm is applied for identifying time series linear models and for selecting inputs for a non-linear model based on neural networks. The neural model is used for modelling monthly average streamflow series of a Brazilian river. Experimental results show good performance of the proposed approach.Este trabalho apresenta uma proposta de identificação de modelos de séries temporais baseada no algoritmo de Informação Mútua Parcial (PMI). Este critério leva em conta tanto as relações lineares, como as relações não-lineares existentes entre as variáveis consideradas na análise. Para o cálculo do PMI é necessário estimar as funções de probablidades marginais e conjunta e o valor esperado. Neste trabalho, essas funções são aproximadas através da função de diferença absoluta em combinação com as funções de kernel. O algoritmo é aplicado na identificação de modelos lineares de séries temporais, assim como na seleção de entradas de um modelo não-linear utilizando redes neurais artificiais. Estes modelos neurais são utilizados na modelagem de séries de vazões médias mensais do Brasil. Os resultados mostram a eficiência do algoritmo, tanto para identificação de modelos lineares como para não-lineares173245256FAPESP - FUNDAÇÃO DE AMPARO À PESQUISA DO ESTADO DE SÃO PAULOCNPQ - CONSELHO NACIONAL DE DESENVOLVIMENTO CIENTÍFICO E TECNOLÓGICOFINEP – FINANCIADORA DE ESTUDOS E PROJETO

Differential Midgut Attachment of Leishmania (Viannia) braziliensis in the Sand Flies Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) whitmani and Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) intermedia

The interaction between Leishmania and sand flies has been demonstrated in many Old and New World species. Besides the morphological differentiation from procyclic to infective metacyclic promastigotes, the parasite undergoes biochemical transformations in its major surface lipophosphoglycan (LPG). An upregulation of β-glucose residues was previously shown in the LPG repeat units from procyclic to metacyclic phase in Leishmania (Viannia) braziliensis, which has not been reported in any Leishmania species. LPG has been implicated as an adhesion molecule that mediates the interaction with the midgut epithelium of the sand fly in the Subgenus Leishmania. These adaptations were explored for the first time in a species from the Subgenus Viannia, L. (V.) braziliensis with its natural vectors Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) intermedia and Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) whitmani. Using two in vitro binding techniques, phosphoglycans (PGs) derived from procyclic and metacyclic parasites were able to bind to the insect midgut and inhibit L. braziliensis attachment. Interestingly, L. braziliensis procyclic parasite attachment was ∼11-fold greater in the midgut of L. whitmani than in L. intermedia. The epidemiological relevance of L. whitmani as a vector of American Cutaneous Leishmaniasis (ACL) in Brazil is discussed

NEWAVE versus ODIN: comparação entre modelo estocástico e determinístico no planejamento da operação energética do sistema interligado nacional

This paper compares the NEWAVE model, a stochastic dual dynamic programming based approach used in Brazil for the long term hydropower scheduling of the interconnected Brazilian power system, to the ODIN model (Optimal Dispatch for the Interconnected Brazilian National system), a deterministic approach based on model predictive control. The former adopts a composite representation of the hydro system and piecewise linear approximations to make the application of dynamic programming solution technique possible to the Brazilian system. The latter uses a nonlinear optimization algorithm considering predicted future inflows with a detailed representation of the individual power plants. Data from official sources were used to formulate a case study on the monthly operation planning of January 2011 that considers the projected expansion plans up to December 2015. Tests were performed by simulation using 75 historical inflow scenarios. In comparison to the scheduling provided by the stochastic approach, the proposed deterministic one was found to provide a superior performance due to the more efficient use of water resources, leading to a more secure and economic operation.Este artigo compara o modelo NEWAVE, uma abordagem baseada em programação dinâmica dual estocástica usada no Brasil para o planejamento da operação de médio prazo, com o modelo ODIN (Otimização de Despacho Interligado Nacional), uma abordagem determinística baseada em modelo de controle preditivo. A primeira adota uma representação agregada do sistema e aproximações lineares para possibilitar a aplicação da técnica de programação dinâmica ao sistema brasileiro. A última usa um algoritmo de otimização não linear considerando vazões futuras previstas com uma representação detalhada das usinas individualmente. Dados de fontes oficiais foram usados para formular um caso de estudo sobre o planejamento mensal de Janeiro de 2011 que considera os planos de expansão até dezembro de 2015. Os testes foram realizados por simulação utilizando 75 séries históricos de vazões. Em comparação com o planejamento fornecido pela abordagem estocástica em vigor, a abordagem determinística proposta apresentou desempenho superior devido ao uso mais eficiente dos recursos hídricos, levando a uma operação mais segura e econômica.59860

Lipophosphoglycans from \u3cem\u3eLeishmania amazonensis\u3c/em\u3e Strains Display Immunomodulatory Properties via TLR4 and Do Not Affect Sand Fly Infection

The immunomodulatory properties of lipophosphoglycans (LPG) from New World species of Leishmania have been assessed in Leishmania infantum and Leishmania braziliensis, the causative agents of visceral and cutaneous leishmaniasis, respectively. This glycoconjugate is highly polymorphic among species with variation in sugars that branch off the conserved Gal(β1,4)Man(α1)-PO4 backbone of repeat units. Here, the immunomodulatory activity of LPGs from Leishmania amazonensis, the causative agent of diffuse cutaneous leishmaniasis, was evaluated in two strains from Brazil. One strain (PH8) was originally isolated from the sand fly and the other (Josefa) was isolated from a human case. The ability of purified LPGs from both strains was investigated during in vitro interaction with peritoneal murine macrophages and CHO cells and in vivo infection with Lutzomyia migonei. In peritoneal murine macrophages, the LPGs from both strains activated TLR4. Both LPGs equally activate MAPKs and the NF-κB inhibitor p-IκBα, but were not able to translocate NF-κB. In vivo experiments with sand flies showed that both stains were able to sustain infection in L. migonei. A preliminary biochemical analysis indicates intraspecies variation in the LPG sugar moieties. However, they did not result in different activation profiles of the innate immune system. Also those polymorphisms did not affect infectivity to the sand fly

Leishmania major Survival in Selective Phlebotomus papatasi Sand Fly Vector Requires a Specific SCG-Encoded Lipophosphoglycan Galactosylation Pattern

Phlebotomine sand flies that transmit the protozoan parasite Leishmania differ greatly in their ability to support different parasite species or strains in the laboratory: while some show considerable selectivity, others are more permissive. In “selective” sand flies, Leishmania binding and survival in the fly midgut typically depends upon the abundant promastigote surface adhesin lipophosphoglycan (LPG), which exhibits species- and strain-specific modifications of the dominant phosphoglycan (PG) repeat units. For the “selective” fly Phlebotomus papatasi PpapJ, side chain galactosyl-modifications (scGal) of PG repeats play key roles in parasite binding. We probed the specificity and properties of this scGal-LPG PAMP (Pathogen Associated Molecular Pattern) through studies of natural isolates exhibiting a wide range of galactosylation patterns, and of a panel of isogenic L. major engineered to express similar scGal-LPG diversity by transfection of SCG-encoded β1,3-galactosyltransferases with different activities. Surprisingly, both ‘poly-scGal’ and ‘null-scGal’ lines survived poorly relative to PpapJ-sympatric L. major FV1 and other ‘mono-scGal’ lines. However, survival of all lines was equivalent in P. duboscqi, which naturally transmit L. major strains bearing ‘null-scGal’-LPG PAMPs. We then asked whether scGal-LPG-mediated interactions were sufficient for PpapJ midgut survival by engineering Leishmania donovani, which normally express unsubstituted LPG, to express a ‘PpapJ-optimal’ scGal-LPG PAMP. Unexpectedly, these “L. major FV1-cloaked” L. donovani-SCG lines remained unable to survive within PpapJ flies. These studies establish that midgut survival of L. major in PpapJ flies is exquisitely sensitive to the scGal-LPG PAMP, requiring a specific ‘mono-scGal’ pattern. However, failure of ‘mono-scGal’ L. donovani-SCG lines to survive in selective PpapJ flies suggests a requirement for an additional, as yet unidentified L. major-specific parasite factor(s). The interplay of the LPG PAMP and additional factor(s) with sand fly midgut receptors may determine whether a given sand fly host is “selective” or “permissive”, with important consequences to both disease transmission and the natural co-evolution of sand flies and Leishmania

Canagliflozin and renal outcomes in type 2 diabetes and nephropathy

BACKGROUND Type 2 diabetes mellitus is the leading cause of kidney failure worldwide, but few effective long-term treatments are available. In cardiovascular trials of inhibitors of sodium–glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2), exploratory results have suggested that such drugs may improve renal outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes. METHODS In this double-blind, randomized trial, we assigned patients with type 2 diabetes and albuminuric chronic kidney disease to receive canagliflozin, an oral SGLT2 inhibitor, at a dose of 100 mg daily or placebo. All the patients had an estimated glomerular filtration rate (GFR) of 30 to <90 ml per minute per 1.73 m2 of body-surface area and albuminuria (ratio of albumin [mg] to creatinine [g], >300 to 5000) and were treated with renin–angiotensin system blockade. The primary outcome was a composite of end-stage kidney disease (dialysis, transplantation, or a sustained estimated GFR of <15 ml per minute per 1.73 m2), a doubling of the serum creatinine level, or death from renal or cardiovascular causes. Prespecified secondary outcomes were tested hierarchically. RESULTS The trial was stopped early after a planned interim analysis on the recommendation of the data and safety monitoring committee. At that time, 4401 patients had undergone randomization, with a median follow-up of 2.62 years. The relative risk of the primary outcome was 30% lower in the canagliflozin group than in the placebo group, with event rates of 43.2 and 61.2 per 1000 patient-years, respectively (hazard ratio, 0.70; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.59 to 0.82; P=0.00001). The relative risk of the renal-specific composite of end-stage kidney disease, a doubling of the creatinine level, or death from renal causes was lower by 34% (hazard ratio, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.53 to 0.81; P<0.001), and the relative risk of end-stage kidney disease was lower by 32% (hazard ratio, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.54 to 0.86; P=0.002). The canagliflozin group also had a lower risk of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or stroke (hazard ratio, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.67 to 0.95; P=0.01) and hospitalization for heart failure (hazard ratio, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.47 to 0.80; P<0.001). There were no significant differences in rates of amputation or fracture. CONCLUSIONS In patients with type 2 diabetes and kidney disease, the risk of kidney failure and cardiovascular events was lower in the canagliflozin group than in the placebo group at a median follow-up of 2.62 years