Empirical risk analysis of pension insurance: the case of Germany

With this paper we seek to contribute to the literature on pension insurance systems. The financial literature tends to focus exclusively on the US pension insurance system. This is the first major empirical study to address the German occupational pension insurance (PSVaG) plan in Germany. The study is based on a Merton-type one-factor model, in which we determine the credit portfolio risk profile of the occupational pension insurance plan and compare two alternative pricing plans. We find that there is a low, yet non-negligible risk of very high losses that may threaten the existence of the occupational pension insurance plan (PSVaG). While relating risk premiums to firms' default probabilities would cause them to diverge widely, a marginal risk contribution method would produce less pronounced differences compared to the current, uniform pricing plan. --Pension insurance,Risk-adjusted premiums,Credit portfolio risk

Former of Turn Trajectory of Sliding Valve Shaft of Gas Line

Former of turn trajectory of sliding valve shaft of gas line, that allows to provide desired motion trajectory of sliding valve and its full closing, is considered in that paper. Imitation model of that former, research results, which allow to detect influence of gain factor and time constant of position controller on value of speed error, that has impact on delay of output coordinate from setting, and that results to delay of sliding valve motion process to setting position point, are shown

Аудит промышленной безопасности организации в системе РСЧС

Аудиторская проверка в пожарно-спасательной части №3 и отдельный пост пожарно-спасательной части №3 ФГКУ "5 отряд федеральной противопожарной службы по Томской области".Audit in firefighting and rescue unit No. 3 and a separate post firefighting and rescue parts №3 FGKU "5 detachment of the Federal fire service in the Tomsk region"

Migration und räumliche Transformation: Theoretische Ansätze, empirische Erkenntnisse, interdisziplinäre Perspektiven

Migration hat es schon immer gegeben und wird voraussichtlich in Zukunft noch weiter zunehmen. Die Land-Stadt-Mobilität in Lateinamerika, Afrika und Asien führt gegenwärtig zu Megastäd-ten mit großen sozialen und infrastrukturellen Problemen. Küs-tenregionen, die durch hohe Besiedlungsdichte und starkes Be-völkerungswachstum geprägt sind, werden künftig von Klimawan-del noch stärker als bereits heute bedroht sein. Generell sind die Ursachen für Migration sehr vielschichtig. Grundsätzlich können positive wie negative Wirkungen von Migration auf Her-kunfts- wie Zielregionen gefunden werden. Zum einen können Herkunftsregionen von erheblichen Geldtransfers ihrer Auswan-derer*innen profitieren (Beispiel Mexiko), während in anderen Fällen die Geldtransfers die fehlenden Arbeitskräfte im länd-lichen Raum nicht aufwiegen können (Beispiel Tansania). Eben-falls sind die Auswirkungen der Migration auf ihre Zielregio-nen divers. Aus historischer Sicht hatten Einwanderungsgruppen häufig an einer geringeren Wertschätzung zu leiden. Dabei hat-ten viele Zielregionen von den Neuankömmlingen profitiert (billige Arbeitskräfte, kulturelle Bereicherung etc.). Gene-rell ist wichtig zu betonen, dass der Mensch als in soziale Beziehungen eingebundener, kulturell und durch historische Prozesse geprägter Akteur in den Mittelpunkt der Migrations-forschung gestellt werden muss.Migration always existed and is expected to intensify in the future. Rural-urban mobility in Latin America, Africa and Asia is currently leading to megacities with major social and in-frastructural problems. Coastal regions, often characterized by large agglomerations with high population density and growth, are in particular highly exposed to climatic change, i.e. sea level rise. Thus, causes of migration are very di-verse and complex. In principle, positive and negative effects of migration exist in regions of origin and destination. Yet, regions of origin can benefit from significant transfers of funds from their emigrants (e.g. Mexico), while in other coun-tries, remittances cannot outweigh the lack of rural workers (e.g. Tanzania). Likewise, the impact of migration on their target regions is diverse. From a historical point of view, immigrant groups suffered from lower appreciation although many target regions benefited from the newcomers (cheap labor, cultural enrichment etc.). In general, it is important to em-phasize that human beings, as immersed in social relationships and shaped by culture and history, have to be placed at the center of research on migration

Drug survival superiority of tumor necrosis factor inhibitors and interleukin-17 inhibitors over Janus kinase inhibitors and interleukin-12/23 inhibitors in German psoriatic arthritis outpatients: retrospective analysis of the RHADAR database

ObjectiveTreatment options with disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs) for psoriatic arthritis (PsA) have evolved over recent years. In addition to Janus kinase inhibitors (JAKi), four classes of biologic DMARDs (bDMARDs; interleukin [IL]-23 inhibitors [IL-23i], IL-12/23 inhibitors [IL-12/23i], tumor necrosis factor inhibitors [TNFi], and IL-17 inhibitors [IL-17i]) are currently approved for moderate to severe PsA treatment. There is minimal evidence of the persistence of these drugs among PsA outpatients in a real-world scenario during the period following the approval of JAKi. Therefore, we aimed to analyze the drug survival rates of biologic and JAKi therapies among German PsA outpatients during routine clinical care.MethodsWe retrospectively analyzed PsA patients with a new prescription for a biologic or JAKi in the RHADAR database between January 2015 and October 2023. Kaplan-Meier Curves and Cox regression modelling were used to compare drug survival rates.Results1352 new prescriptions with bDMARDs (IL-12/23i [n=50], IL-23i [n=31], TNFi [n=774], IL-17i [n=360]) or JAKi (n=137) were identified. The 5-year drug survival rate was 67.8% for IL-17i, 62.3% for TNFi, 53.3% for JAKi, and 46.0% for IL-12/23i. Discontinuation probabilities for JAKi and IL-12/23i were significantly higher compared with TNFi (JAKi hazard ratio [HR] 1.66, [95% CI 1.23–2.24], p=0.001; IL-12/23i HR 1.54, [95% CI 1.02–2.33], p=0.042) and IL-17i (JAKi HR 1.77, [95% CI 1.27–2.47], p=0.001; IL-12/23i HR 1.64, [95% CI 1.06–2.55], p=0.027). JAKi-treated patients had more severe disease and more osteoarthritis (OA) compared to TNFi and more OA compared to IL-17i. ConclusionGerman PsA outpatients might persist longer with TNFi and IL-17i compared with IL-12/23i or JAKi. For TNFi, differences in subgroup characteristics and comorbidities (OA) may have affected drug survival rates. For IL-17i, the longer drug survival might not only be related to less OA compared to JAKi and, therefore, might be affected by other factors