Does Global Warming Increase Establishment Rates of Invasive Alien Species? A Centurial Time Series Analysis

BACKGROUND: The establishment rate of invasive alien insect species has been increasing worldwide during the past century. This trend has been widely attributed to increased rates of international trade and associated species introductions, but rarely linked to environmental change. To better understand and manage the bioinvasion process, it is crucial to understand the relationship between global warming and establishment rate of invasive alien species, especially for poikilothermic invaders such as insects. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We present data that demonstrate a significant positive relationship between the change in average annual surface air temperature and the establishment rate of invasive alien insects in mainland China during 1900-2005. This relationship was modeled by regression analysis, and indicated that a 1 °C increase in average annual surface temperature in mainland China was associated with an increase in the establishment rate of invasive alien insects of about 0.5 species year⁻¹. The relationship between rising surface air temperature and increasing establishment rate remained significant even after accounting for increases in international trade during the period 1950-2005. Moreover, similar relationships were detected using additional data from the United Kingdom and the contiguous United States. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: These findings suggest that the perceived increase in establishments of invasive alien insects can be explained only in part by an increase in introduction rate or propagule pressure. Besides increasing propagule pressure, global warming is another driver that could favor worldwide bioinvasions. Our study highlights the need to consider global warming when designing strategies and policies to deal with bioinvasions

Thermal Variability Increases the Impact of Autumnal Warming and Drives Metabolic Depression in an Overwintering Butterfly

Increases in thermal variability elevate metabolic rate due to Jensen's inequality, and increased metabolic rate decreases the fitness of dormant ectotherms by increasing consumption of stored energy reserves. Theory predicts that ectotherms should respond to increased thermal variability by lowering the thermal sensitivity of metabolism, which will reduce the impact of the warm portion of thermal variability. We examined the thermal sensitivity of metabolic rate of overwintering Erynnis propertius (Lepidoptera: Hesperiidae) larvae from a stable or variable environment reared in the laboratory in a reciprocal common garden design, and used these data to model energy use during the winters of 1973–2010 using meteorological data to predict the energetic outcomes of metabolic compensation and phenological shifts. Larvae that experienced variable temperatures had decreased thermal sensitivity of metabolic rate, and were larger than those reared at stable temperatures, which could partially compensate for the increased energetic demands. Even with depressed thermal sensitivity, the variable environment was more energy-demanding than the stable, with the majority of this demand occurring in autumn. Autumn phenology changes thus had disproportionate influence on energy consumption in variable environments, and variable-reared larvae were most susceptible to overwinter energy drain. Therefore the energetic impacts of the timing of entry into winter dormancy will strongly influence ectotherm fitness in northern temperate environments. We conclude that thermal variability drives the expression of metabolic suppression in this species; that phenological shifts will have a greater impact on ectotherms in variable thermal environments; and that E. propertius will be more sensitive to shifts in phenology in autumn than in spring. This suggests that increases in overwinter thermal variability and/or extended, warm autumns, will negatively impact all non-feeding dormant ectotherms which lack the ability to suppress their overwinter metabolic thermal sensitivity

The relationship between canopy cover and colony size of the wood ant Formica lugubris : implications for the thermal effects on a keystone ant species

Climate change may affect ecosystems and biodiversity through the impacts of rising temperature on species' body size. In terms of physiology and genetics, the colony is the unit of selection for ants so colony size can be considered the body size of a colony. For polydomous ant species, a colony is spread across several nests. This study aims to clarify how climate change may influence an ecologically significant ant species group by investigating thermal effects on wood ant colony size. The strong link between canopy cover and the local temperatures of wood ant's nesting location provides a feasible approach for our study. Our results showed that nests were larger in shadier areas where the thermal environment was colder and more stable compared to open areas. Colonies (sum of nests in a polydomous colony) also tended to be larger in shadier areas than in open areas. In addition to temperature, our results supported that food resource availability may be an additional factor mediating the relationship between canopy cover and nest size. The effects of canopy cover on total colony size may act at the nest level because of the positive relationship between total colony size and mean nest size, rather than at the colony level due to lack of link between canopy cover and number of nests per colony. Causal relationships between the environment and the life-history characteristics may suggest possible future impacts of climate change on these species

Potential impacts of climate change on insect communities: a transplant experiment.

Climate change will have profound impacts on the distribution, abundance and ecology of all species. We used a multi-species transplant experiment to investigate the potential effects of a warmer climate on insect community composition and structure. Eight native Australian plant species were transplanted into sites approximately 2.5°C (mean annual temperature) warmer than their native range. Subsequent insect colonisation was monitored for 12 months. We compared the insect communities on transplanted host plants at the warmer sites with control plants transplanted within the species' native range. Comparisons of the insect communities were also made among transplanted plants at warmer sites and congeneric plant species native to the warmer transplant area. We found that the morphospecies composition of the colonising Coleoptera and Hemiptera communities differed markedly between transplants at the control compared to the warmer sites. Community structure, as described by the distribution of feeding guilds, was also found to be different between the controls and transplants when the entire Coleoptera and Hemiptera community, including non-herbivore feeding guilds, was considered. However, the structure of the herbivorous insect community showed a higher level of consistency between plants at control and warm sites. There were marked differences in community composition and feeding guild structure, for both herbivores and non-herbivores, between transplants and congenerics at the warm sites. These results suggest that as the climate warms, considerable turnover in the composition of insect communities may occur, but insect herbivore communities may retain elements of their present-day structure

Elevation and habitats: the potential of sites at different altitudes to provide refuges for phytophagous insects during climatic fluctuations

Uplands are expected to provide refuges for species subject to lowland habitat loss and projected climate changes. Here, we argue that upland populations also provide refuges when lowland sites are subject to climatic fluctuations and extreme events and that species with populations dispersed over adjoining uplands and lowlands spread their risk of extinction. A proviso is that development is sufficiently lagged with altitude but that development rates are compatible. Emergence patterns and development of the butterfly Anthocharis cardamines and its larval host plant Cardamine pratensis show these characteristics, and coupled with the butterfly’s capacity to migrate between isolated populations present a case where upland and lowland populations can act as sources when one or the other area is adversely affected by extreme events