Population assessment of future trajectories in coronary heart disease mortality.

Background: Coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates have been decreasing in Iceland since the 1980s, largely reflecting improvements in cardiovascular risk factors. The purpose of this study was to predict future CHD mortality in Iceland based on potential risk factor trends. Methods and findings: The previously validated IMPACT model was used to predict changes in CHD mortality between 2010 and 2040 among the projected population of Iceland aged 25–74. Calculations were based on combining: i) data on population numbers and projections (Statistics Iceland), ii) population risk factor levels and projections (Refine Reykjavik study), and iii) effectiveness of specific risk factor reductions (published meta-analyses). Projections for three contrasting scenarios were compared: 1) If the historical risk factor trends of past 30 years were to continue, the declining death rates of past decades would level off, reflecting population ageing. 2) If recent trends in risk factors (past 5 years) continue, this would result in a death rate increasing from 49 to 70 per 100,000. This would reflect a recent plateau in previously falling cholesterol levels and recent rapid increases in obesity and diabetes prevalence. 3) Assuming that in 2040 the entire population enjoys optimal risk factor levels observed in low risk cohorts, this would prevent almost all premature CHD deaths before 2040. Conclusions: The potential increase in CHD deaths with recent trends in risk factor levels is alarming both for Iceland and probably for comparable Western populations. However, our results show considerable room for reducing CHD mortality. Achieving the best case scenario could eradicate premature CHD deaths by 2040. Public health policy interventions based on these predictions may provide a cost effective means of reducing CHD mortality in the future

Impact of metabolic comorbidity on the association between body mass index and heatlh-related quality of life: a Scotland-wide cross-sectional study of 5,608 participants

<p/>Background: The prevalence of obesity is rising in Scotland and globally. Overall, obesity is associated with increased morbidity, mortality and reduced health-related quality of life. Studies suggest that "healthy obesity" (obesity without metabolic comorbidity) may not be associated with morbidity or mortality. Its impact on health-related quality of life is unknown. <p/>Methods: We extracted data from the Scottish Health Survey on self-reported health-related quality of life, body mass index (BMI), demographic information and comorbidity. SF-12 responses were converted into an overall health utility score. Linear regression analyses were used to explore the association between BMI and health utility, stratified by the presence or absence of metabolic comorbidity (diabetes, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia or cardiovascular disease), and adjusted for potential confounders (age, sex and deprivation quintile). <p/>Results: Of the 5,608 individuals, 3,744 (66.8%) were either overweight or obese and 921 (16.4%) had metabolic comorbidity. There was an inverted U-shaped relationship whereby health utility was highest among overweight individuals and fell with increasing BMI. There was a significant interaction with metabolic comorbidity (p = 0.007). Individuals with metabolic comorbidty had lower utility scores and a steeper decline in utility with increasing BMI (morbidly obese, adjusted coefficient: -0.064, 95% CI -0.115, -0.012, p = 0.015 for metabolic comorbidity versus -0.042, 95% CI -0.067, -0.018, p = 0.001 for no metabolic comorbidity). <p/>Conclusions: The adverse impact of obesity on health-related quality of life is greater among individuals with metabolic comorbidity. However, increased BMI is associated with reduced health-related quality of life even in the absence of metabolic comorbidity, casting doubt on the notion of "healthy obesity"

Age-specific trends in cardiovascular mortality rates in the Netherlands between 1980 and 2009

Recent analyses suggest the decline in coronary heart disease mortality rates is slowing in younger age groups in countries such as the US and the UK. This work aimed to analyse recent trends in cardiovascular mortality rates in the Netherlands. Analysis was of annual all circulatory, ischaemic heart disease (IHD), and cerebrovascular disease mortality rates between 1980 and 2009 for the Netherlands. Data were stratified by sex and 10-year age group (age 35–85+). The annual rate of change and significant changes in the trend were identified using joinpoint Poisson regression. For almost all age and sex groups examined the rate of IHD and cerebrovascular disease mortality in the Netherlands has more than halved between 1980 and 2009. The decline in mortality from both IHD and cerebrovascular disease is continuing for all ages and sex groups, with anacceleration in the decline apparent from the late 1990s/early 2000s. The decline in age-specific all circulatory, coronary heart disease and cerebrovascular disease mortality rates continues for all age and sex groups in the Netherlands

Calculation of health expectancies with administrative data for North Rhine-Westphalia, a Federal State of Germany, 1999–2005

Pinheiro JP, Krämer A. Calculation of health expectancies with administrative data for North Rhine-Westphalia, a Federal State of Germany, 1999-2005. Population Health Metrics. 2009;7(1):4.OBJECTIVES: The main objectives of this study were to prove the feasibility of health expectancy analyses with regional administrative health statistics and to explore the utility of the calculated health expectancies in describing the health state of the population living in North Rhine-Westphalia, a Federal State of Germany. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Administrative population and mortality data as well as health data on disability and long-term care provided by public services were used to calculate: a) the life expectancy and b) the health expectancies Severe-Disability-Free Life Expectancy (SDFLE) and Long-Term-Care-Free Life Expectancy (LTCFLE) from 1999 to 2005. Calculations were done using the Sullivan method. RESULTS: SDFLE at birth was 69.9 years (males 66.2 and females 73.2 years) in 1999 and it increased to 71.7 years (males 68.6 and females 74.7 years) in 2005. The proportion of the SDFLE on the total life expectancy at birth was 89.8% (males 88.6 and females 90.8%) in 1999 and 90.7% (males 89.8 and females 91.4%) in 2005.LTCFLE at birth was 75.3 years (males 73.1 and females 77.5 years) in 1999 and it increased to 76.6 years (males 74.7 and females 78.6 years) in 2005. The proportion of the LTCFLE on the total life expectancy at birth was 96.8% (males 97.8 and females 96.1%) in 1999 and 96.8% (males 97.8 and females 96.2%) in 2005. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: Both health expectancies indicate an improvement in the quantity as well as in the quality of healthy life for the population living in North Rhine Westphalia and therefore suggest a compression of morbidity from 1999 to 2005. The findings however have several limitations in their sensitivity, since we applied dichotomous valuations to the health states. In addition, the results are restricted to comparisons over time because the morbidity concepts do not allow for comparisons with populations other than the German one. Refined calculations with other summary measures of population health and with health data on other morbidity concepts are therefore reasonable

Does long-term care use within primary health care reduce hospital use among older people in Norway? A national five-year population-based observational study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Population ageing may threaten the sustainability of future health care systems. Strengthening primary health care, including long-term care, is one of several measures being taken to handle future health care needs and budgets. There is limited and inconsistent evidence on the effect of long-term care on hospital use. We explored the relationship between the total use of long-term care within public primary health care in Norway and the use of hospital beds when adjusting for various effect modifiers and confounders.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This national population-based observational study consists of all Norwegians (59% women) older than 66 years (N = 605676) (13.2% of total population) in 2002-2006. The unit of analysis was defined by municipality, age and sex. The association between total number of recipients of long-term care per 1000 inhabitants (LTC-rate) and hospital days per 1000 inhabitants (HD-rate) was analysed in a linear regression model. Modifying and confounding effects of socioeconomic, demographic and geographic variables were included in the final model. We defined a difference in hospitalization rates of more than 1000 days per 1000 inhabitants as clinically important.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Thirty-one percent of women and eighteen percent of men were long-term care users. Men had higher HD-rates than women. The crude association between LTC-rate and HD-rate was weakly negative. We identified two effect modifiers (age and sex) and two strong confounders (travel time to hospital and mortality). Age and sex stratification and adjustments for confounders revealed a positive statistically significant but not clinically important relationship between LTC-rates and hospitalization for women aged 67-79 years and all men. For women 80 years and over there was a weak but negative relationship which was neither statistically significant nor clinically important.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>We found a weak positive adjusted association between LTC-rates and HD-rates. Opposite to common belief, we found that increased volume of LTC by itself did not reduce pressure on hospitals. There still is a need to study integrated care models for the elderly in the Norwegian setting and to explore further why municipalities far away from hospital achieve lower use of hospital beds.</p

The effect of body mass index on global brain volume in middle-aged adults: a cross sectional study

BACKGROUND: Obesity causes or exacerbates a host of medical conditions, including cardiovascular, pulmonary, and endocrine diseases. Recently obesity in elderly women was associated with greater risk of dementia, white matter ischemic changes, and greater brain atrophy. The purpose of this study was to determine whether body type affects global brain volume, a marker of atrophy, in middle-aged men and women. METHODS: T1-weighted 3D volumetric magnetic resonance imaging was used to assess global brain volume for 114 individuals 40 to 66 years of age (average = 54.2 years; standard deviation = 6.6 years; 43 men and 71 women). Total cerebrospinal fluid and brain volumes were obtained with an automated tissue segmentation algorithm. A regression model was used to determine the effect of age, body mass index (BMI), and other cardiovascular risk factors on brain volume and cognition. RESULTS: Age and BMI were each associated with decreased brain volume. BMI did not predict cognition in this sample; however elevated diastolic blood pressure was associated with poorer episodic learning performance. CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that middle-aged obese adults may already be experiencing differentially greater brain atrophy, and may potentially be at greater risk for future cognitive decline

Prevalence, predictors and prognostic implications of PR interval prolongation in patients with heart failure

Aims: To determine the prevalence, incidence, predictors and prognostic implications of PR interval prolongation in patients referred with suspected heart failure. Methods and Results: Consecutive patients referred with suspected heart failure were prospectively enrolled. After excluding patients with implantable cardiac devices and atrial fibrillation, 1420 patients with heart failure and reduced ejection fraction (HeFREF) [age: median 71 (interquartile range IQR: 63-78) years; men: 71%; NT-ProBNP: 1319 (583-3378) ng/L], 1094 with heart failure and normal ejection fraction (HeFNEF) [age: 76 (70-82) years; men: 47%; NT-ProBNP: 547 (321-1171) ng/L], and 1150 without heart failure [age: 68 (60-75) years; men: 51%; NT-ProBNP: 86 (46-140) ng/L] were included. The prevalence of first degree heart block [heart-rate corrected PR interval (PRc) >200 ms] was higher in patients with heart failure (21% HeFREF, 20% HeFNEF, 9% without heart failure). In patients with HeFREF or HeFNEF, longer baseline PRc was associated with greater age, male sex, and longer QRS duration and, in those with HeFREF, treatment with amiodarone or digoxin. Patients with heart failure in the longest PRc quartile had worse survival compared to shorter PRc quartiles but PRc was not independently associated with survival in multivariable analysis. For patients without heart failure, shorter baseline PRc was independently associated with worse survival. Conclusion: PRc prolongation is common in patients with HeFREF or HeFNEF and associated with worse survival, although not an independent predictor of outcome. The results of clinical trials investigating the therapeutic potential of shortening the PR interval by pacing are awaited

Differences in physical activity domains, guideline adherence, and weight history between metabolically healthy and metabolically abnormal obese adults: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND: Despite the accepted health consequences of obesity, emerging research suggests that a significant segment of adults with obesity are metabolically healthy (MHO). To date, MHO individuals have been shown to have higher levels of physical activity (PA), but little is known about the importance of PA domains or the influence of weight history compared to their metabolically abnormal (MAO) counterpart. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the relationship between PA domains, PA guideline adherence, and weight history on MHO. METHODS: Pooled cycles of the National Health and Nutritional Examination Survey (NHANES) 1999–2006 (≥20 y; BMI ≥ 30 kg/m(2); N = 2,753) and harmonized criteria for metabolic syndrome (MetS) were used. Participants were categorized as “inactive” (no reported PA), “somewhat active” (>0 to < 500 metabolic equivalent (MET) min/week), and “active” (PA guideline adherence, ≥ 500 MET min/week) according to each domain of PA (total, recreational, transportation and household). Logistic and multinomial regressions were modelled for MHO and analyses were adjusted for age, sex, education, ethnicity, income, smoking and alcohol intake. RESULTS: Compared to MAO, MHO participants were younger, had lower BMI, and were more likely to be classified as active according to their total and recreational PA level. Based on total PA levels, individuals who were active had a 70 % greater likelihood of having the MHO phenotype (OR = 1.70, 95 % CI: 1.19–2.43); however, once stratified by age (20–44 y; 45–59 y; and; ≥60 y), the association remained significant only amongst those aged 45–59 y. Although moderate and vigorous PA were inconsistently related to MHO following adjustment for covariates, losing ≥30 kg in the last 10 y and not gaining ≥10 kg since age 25 y were significant predictors of MHO phenotype for all PA domains, even if adherence to the PA guidelines were not met. CONCLUSION: Although PA is associated with MHO, the beneficial effects of PA may be moderated by longer-term changes in weight. Longitudinal analysis of physical activity and weight change trajectories are necessary to isolate the contribution of duration of obesity, PA behaviours, and longer-term outcomes amongst MHO individuals