Design of ensemble forecasting models for home energy management systems

The increasing levels of energy consumption worldwide is raising issues with respect to surpassing supply limits, causing severe effects on the environment, and the exhaustion of energy resources. Buildings are one of the most relevant sectors in terms of energy consumption; as such, efficient Home or Building Management Systems are an important topic of research. This study discusses the use of ensemble techniques in order to improve the performance of artificial neural networks models used for energy forecasting in residential houses. The case study is a residential house, located in Portugal, that is equipped with PV generation and battery storage and controlled by a Home Energy Management System (HEMS). It has been shown that the ensemble forecasting results are superior to single selected models, which were already excellent. A simple procedure was proposed for selecting the models to be used in the ensemble, together with a heuristic to determine the number of models.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Non-intrusive load monitoring of household devices using a hybrid deep learning model through convex hull-based data selection

The availability of smart meters and IoT technology has opened new opportunities, ranging from monitoring electrical energy to extracting various types of information related to household occupancy, and with the frequency of usage of different appliances. Non-intrusive load monitoring (NILM) allows users to disaggregate the usage of each device in the house using the total aggregated power signals collected from a smart meter that is typically installed in the household. It enables the monitoring of domestic appliance use without the need to install individual sensors for each device, thus minimizing electrical system complexities and associated costs. This paper proposes an NILM framework based on low frequency power data using a convex hull data selection approach and hybrid deep learning architecture. It employs a sliding window of aggregated active and reactive powers sampled at 1 Hz. A randomized approximation convex hull data selection approach performs the selection of the most informative vertices of the real convex hull. The hybrid deep learning architecture is composed of two models: a classification model based on a convolutional neural network trained with a regression model based on a bidirectional long-term memory neural network. The results obtained on the test dataset demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach, achieving F1 values ranging from 0.95 to 0.99 for the four devices considered and estimation accuracy values between 0.88 and 0.98. These results compare favorably with the performance of existing approaches.This research was funded by Programa Operacional Portugal 2020 and Operational Program CRESC Algarve 2020, grant numbers 39578/2018 and 72581/2020. Antonio Ruano also acknowledges the support of Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia, grant UID/EMS/50022/2020, through IDMEC under LAETAinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Worldwide trends in underweight and obesity from 1990 to 2022: a pooled analysis of 3663 population-representative studies with 222 million children, adolescents, and adults

Background Underweight and obesity are associated with adverse health outcomes throughout the life course. We estimated the individual and combined prevalence of underweight or thinness and obesity, and their changes, from 1990 to 2022 for adults and school-aged children and adolescents in 200 countries and territories. Methods We used data from 3663 population-based studies with 222 million participants that measured height and weight in representative samples of the general population. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in the prevalence of different BMI categories, separately for adults (age ≥20 years) and school-aged children and adolescents (age 5–19 years), from 1990 to 2022 for 200 countries and territories. For adults, we report the individual and combined prevalence of underweight (BMI 2 SD above the median). Findings From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity in adults decreased in 11 countries (6%) for women and 17 (9%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 that the observed changes were true decreases. The combined prevalence increased in 162 countries (81%) for women and 140 countries (70%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. In 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity was highest in island nations in the Caribbean and Polynesia and Micronesia, and countries in the Middle East and north Africa. Obesity prevalence was higher than underweight with posterior probability of at least 0·80 in 177 countries (89%) for women and 145 (73%) for men in 2022, whereas the converse was true in 16 countries (8%) for women, and 39 (20%) for men. From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of thinness and obesity decreased among girls in five countries (3%) and among boys in 15 countries (8%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80, and increased among girls in 140 countries (70%) and boys in 137 countries (69%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. The countries with highest combined prevalence of thinness and obesity in school-aged children and adolescents in 2022 were in Polynesia and Micronesia and the Caribbean for both sexes, and Chile and Qatar for boys. Combined prevalence was also high in some countries in south Asia, such as India and Pakistan, where thinness remained prevalent despite having declined. In 2022, obesity in school-aged children and adolescents was more prevalent than thinness with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 among girls in 133 countries (67%) and boys in 125 countries (63%), whereas the converse was true in 35 countries (18%) and 42 countries (21%), respectively. In almost all countries for both adults and school-aged children and adolescents, the increases in double burden were driven by increases in obesity, and decreases in double burden by declining https://researchonline.ljmu.ac.uk/images/research_banner_face_lab_290.jpgunderweight or thinness. Interpretation The combined burden of underweight and obesity has increased in most countries, driven by an increase in obesity, while underweight and thinness remain prevalent in south Asia and parts of Africa. A healthy nutrition transition that enhances access to nutritious foods is needed to address the remaining burden of underweight while curbing and reversing the increase in obesity

Energy Disaggregation Using Multi-Objective Genetic Algorithm Designed Neural Networks

Energy-saving schemes are nowadays a major worldwide concern. As the building sector is a major energy consumer, and hence greenhouse gas emitter, research in home energy management systems (HEMS) has increased substantially during the last years. One of the primary purposes of HEMS is monitoring electric consumption and disaggregating this consumption across different electric appliances. Non-intrusive load monitoring (NILM) enables this disaggregation without having to resort in the profusion of specific meters associated with each device. This paper proposes a low-complexity and low-cost NILM framework based on radial basis function neural networks designed by a multi-objective genetic algorithm (MOGA), with design data selected by an approximate convex hull algorithm. Results of the proposed framework on residential house data demonstrate the designed models’ ability to disaggregate the house devices with excellent performance, which was consistently better than using other machine learning algorithms, obtaining F1 values between 68% and 100% and estimation accuracy values ranging from 75% to 99%. The proposed NILM approach enabled us to identify the operation of electric appliances accounting for 66% of the total consumption and to recognize that 60% of the total consumption could be schedulable, allowing additional flexibility for the HEMS operation. Despite reducing the data sampling from one second to one minute, to allow for low-cost meters and the employment of low complexity models and to enable its real-time implementation without having to resort to specific hardware, the proposed technique presented an excellent ability to disaggregate the usage of devices

Low frequency-based energy disaggregation using sliding windows and deep learning

The issue of controlling energy use is becoming extremely important. People’s behavior is one of the most important elements influencing electric energy usage in the residential sector, one of the most significant energy consumers globally. The building’s energy usage could be reduced by using feedback programs. Non-Intrusive Load Monitoring (NILM) approaches have emerged as one of the most viable options for energy disaggregation. This paper presents a deep learning algorithm using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models for energy disaggregation. It employs low-frequency sampling power data collected in a private house. The aggregated active and reactive powers are used as inputs in a sliding window. The obtained results show that the proposed approach gives high performances in term of recognizing the devices' operating states and predicting the energy consumed by each device

Adaptive system for blood flow estimation

Adaptive estimation of blood flow signals is performed resorting to a framework developed to support research on Doppler blood flow signals' analysis. Real time spectral estimation methods, real time performance evaluation and run-time adjustment of the estimation methods parameters are bound together allowing the system to adapt itself to varying signal characteristic that are caused by physiological reasons.IEEE Instrumentat & Measurement Soc, IEEE Hungary Sect, IEEE Hungary I&M Soc Joint Chapter, IEEE Hungary Chapter Neural Networks Soc, IEEE I&M Soc TC7, Hungarian Fuzzy Assoc, Budapest Univ Technol & Eco

Adaptive system for blood flow estimation

Adaptive estimation of blood flow signals is performed resorting to a framework developed to support research on Doppler blood flow signals' analysis. Real time spectral estimation methods, real time performance evaluation and run-time adjustment of the estimation methods parameters are bound together allowing the system to adapt itself to varying signal characteristics that are caused by physiological reasons.Adaptive estimation of blood flow signals is performed resorting to a framework developed to support research on Doppler blood flow signals’ analysis. Real time spectral estimation methods, real time performance evaluation and run-time adjustment of the estimation methods parameters are bound together allowing the system to adapt itself to varying signal characteristics that are caused by physiological reasons.IEEE Instrumentat & Measurement Soc, IEEE Hungary Sect, IEEE Hungary I&M Soc Joint Chapter, IEEE Hungary Chapter Neural Networks Soc, IEEE I&M Soc TC7, Hungarian Fuzzy Assoc, Budapest Univ Technol & Eco

Time, time-frequency and displacement-frequency analysis of embolic signals

The characteristics of a new method, the displacement-frequency representation, prompted the study of its use for the analysis of embolic blood flow signals. This paper reports the comparison of displacement-frequency and time-frequency methods with time domain methods, in the characterization of emboli. The study was performed on clinical signals derived from gaseous and particulate embolic events. The results obtained with the different approaches were compared. The conclusions of this study provide encouragement for the use of displacement-frequency domain processing for this kind of analysis.IEEE Instrumentat & Measurement Soc

Time-variable blood flow averaged waveforms

The computation of the average of random signals is addressed in this article. These averaging techniques are particularly relevant for Doppler blood flow clinical evaluation and research that usually accesses clinical indicators related to maximum and mean frequency, bandwidth and power variation over time. A novel technique is presented and compared to one previously described in the literature (Kitney and Giddens, "Analysis of blood velocity waveforms by phase shift averaging and autoregressive spectral estimation'', J. Biomech. Eng., 105, 398 - 404, 1983.). While the latter method is an iterative one, which sometimes does not converge, the former is a sequential technique, guaranteeing convergence. Clinical Doppler blood flow signals were averaged using both methods and the resulting waveforms were evaluated against the original signals, emphasising the impact on the relevant spectral parameters. The results obtained showed that, except for the maximum error in the computation of power variation over time, the errors produced are reduced by the proposed new algorithm.Portuguese Assoc Automat Contro