Deposit‐Derived Block‐and‐Ash Flows: The Hazard Posed by Perched Temporary Tephra Accumulations on Volcanoes; 2018 Fuego Disaster, Guatemala

The impact of hazardous pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) increases with runout distance, which is strongly influenced by the mass flux. This article shows that the mass flux of a PDC may derive not only from vent discharge during the eruption, but also from partly hot, temporary stores (accumulations) of aerated pyroclastic material perched high on the volcano. The unforeseen PDC at Fuego volcano (Guatemala) on 3 June 2018 happened c.1.5 hr after the eruption climax. It overran the village of San Miguel Los Lotes causing an estimated 400+ fatalities. Analysis of the facies architecture of the deposit combined with video footage shows that a pulsatory block-and-ash flow flowed down the Las Lajas valley and rapidly waxed, the runout briefly increasing to 12.2 km as it filled and then spilled out of river channels, entered a second valley where it devastated the village and became increasingly erosive, prior to waning. Paleomagnetic analysis shows that the PDC contained only 6% very hot (>590°C) clasts, 39% moderately hot (∼200°C–500°C) clasts, and 51% cool (<200°C) clasts. This reveals that the block-and-ash flow mostly derived from collapse of loose and partly hot pyroclastic deposits, stored high on the volcano, gradually accumulated during the last 2–3 years. Progressive collapse of unstable deposits supplied the block-and-ash flow, causing a bulk-up process, waxing flow, channel overspill and unexpected runout. The study demonstrates that deposit-derived pyroclastic currents from perched temporary tephra stores pose a particular hazard that is easy to overlook and requires a new, different approach to hazard assessment and monitoring

Determination of the largest clast sizes of tephra deposits for the characterization of explosive eruptions: a study of the IAVCEI commission on tephra hazard modelling

The distribution of clasts deposited around a volcano during an explosive eruption typically contoured by isopleth maps provides important insights into the associated plume height, wind speed and eruptive style. Nonetheless, a wide range of strategies exists to determine the largest clasts, which can lead to very different results with obvious implications for the characterization of eruptive behaviour of active volcanoes. The IAVCEI Commission on Tephra Hazard Modelling has carried out a dedicated exercise to assess the influence of various strategies on the determination of the largest clasts. Suggestions on the selection of sampling area, collection strategy, choice of clast typologies and clast characterization (i.e. axis measurement and averaging technique) are given, mostly based on a thorough investigation of two outcrops of a Plinian tephra deposit from Cotopaxi volcano (Ecuador) located at different distances from the vent. These include: (1) sampling on a flat paleotopography far from significant slopes to minimize remobilization effects; (2) sampling on specified-horizontal-area sections (with the statistically representative sampling area depending on the outcrop grain size and lithic content); (3) clast characterization based on the geometric mean of its three orthogonal axes with the approximation of the minimum ellipsoid (lithic fragments are better than pumice clasts when present); and (4) use of the method of the 50th percentile of a sample of 20 clasts as the best way to assess the largest clasts. It is also suggested that all data collected for the construction of isopleth maps be made available to the community through the use of a standardized data collection template, to assess the applicability of the new proposed strategy on a large number of deposits and to build a large dataset for the future development and refinement of dispersal model

The effects of vent location, event scale and time forecasts on pyroclastic density current hazard maps at Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy)

This study presents a new method for producing long-term hazard maps for pyroclastic density currents (PDC) originating at Campi Flegrei caldera. Such method is based on a doubly stochastic approach and is able to combine the uncertainty assessments on the spatial location of the volcanic vent, the size of the flow and the expected time of such an event. The results are obtained by using a Monte Carlo approach and adopting a simplified invasion model based on the box model integral approximation. Temporal assessments are modeled through a Cox-type process including self-excitement effects, based on the eruptive record of the last 15 kyr.Mean and percentilemaps of PDC invasion probability are produced, exploring their sensitivity to some sources of uncertainty and to the effects of the dependence between PDC scales and the caldera sector where they originated. Conditional maps representative of PDC originating inside limited zones of the caldera, or of PDC with a limited range of scales are also produced. Finally, the effect of assuming different time windows for the hazard estimates is explored, also including the potential occurrence of a sequence of multiple events. Assuming that the last eruption of Monte Nuovo (A.D. 1538) marked the beginning of a new epoch of activity similar to the previous ones, results of the statistical analysis indicate a mean probability of PDC invasion above 5% in the next 50 years on almost the entire caldera (with a probability peak of 25% in the central part of the caldera). In contrast, probability values reduce by a factor of about 3 if the entire eruptive record is considered over the last 15 kyr, i.e., including both eruptive epochs and quiescent periods

Merleau-Ponty and the Measuring Body

In recent years a growing number of scholars in science studies and related fields are developing new ontologies to displace entrenched dualisms. These efforts often go together with a renewed interest in the roles played by symbolisms and tools in knowledge and being. This article brings Maurice Merleau-Ponty into these conversations, positioning him as a precursor of today’s innovative recastings of technoscience. While Merleau-Ponty is often invoked in relation to his early work on the body and embodiment, this article focuses on his later work, where the investigation of perception is integrated with an ontological exploration. The resulting approach revolves around the highly original idea of the body as a standard of measurement. We further develop this idea by coining the term ‘the measuring body’, which to a greater extent than did Merleau-Ponty accentuates the relative autonomy of symbolisms and tools and their capacity to decentre the perceiving body