Real and nominal effects of monetary policy shocks

Using Canadian data we estimate the effects of monetary policy shocks on various real and nominal variables using a fully recursive VAR model. We decompose the nominal interest rate into an ex-ante real interest rate and inflationary expectations using the Blanchard-Quah structural VAR model with the identifying restriction that ex-ante real interest rate shocks have but a temporary impact on the nominal interest rate. The inflationary expectations are then employed to estimate a policy reaction function that identifies monetary policy shocks. We find that a positive shock introduced by raising the monetary aggregates raises inflationary expectations and temporarily lowers the ex-ante real interest rate. As well, it depreciates the Canadian dollar and generates other macro effects consistent with conventional monetary theory although these effects are not statistically significant. Using the overnight target rate as the monetary policy instrument we find that a contractionary monetary policy shock lowers inflationary expectations and raises the ex-ante real interest. Such a contractionary monetary policy shock also appreciates the Canadian currency, decreases industrial output and increases the unemployment rate. We obtain qualitatively better results using the overnight target rate rather than a monetary aggregate as the monetary policy instrument. Our estimated results are robust to various modifications of the basic VAR model and do not encounter empirical anomalies such as the liquidity and exchange rate puzzles found in some previous VAR studies of the effects of monetary policy shocks in an open economy

Time Series Analysis of Stock Returns for Two Pharmaceutical Companies Listed in Chittagong Stock Exchange

The primary aim of the study is to analyze and prediction of stock returns for 02 popular pharmaceutical companies namely BEXIMCO and SQUARE pharmaceuticals which are listed in Chittagong Stock Exchange. Generally the effective performance of stock market is one of the major indicators for economic development of a country.  In this study, secondary data on stock index and daily average stock price with a sample period 1st January 2010 to 27th December 2016 for selected 02 popular pharmaceutical companies listed in Chittagong Stock Exchange. Descriptive statistics, important graphs, statistical tests, fitted dynamic time series regression models with ARCH effect are used to complete the analysis. It is found that for both companies , the return occurs high with a high risk and risk is low for the companies with small amount of return. Generally SQUARE pharmaceutical has more gross return than BEXIMCO pharmaceutical. The gross returns for both companies follow the non-stationary but the log returns shows stationarity and the transformed variable log returns is used in the analysis to predict the return for these two companies.  The daily log returns of selected 2 companies confer the normality of the white noise of this variable. It is observed that the average VIF for both companies are less than 10, indicate the not severity of multicollinearity and can use these transform explanatory variables ∆Yt ,  ∆2Yt , ∆Xt and ∆2Xt in the model. Significant LM test statistic indicates the situation of having ARCH effect for the log return of both companies. Parkinson’s monthly volatility of both companies also confers the conditional heteroscadisticity in the behavior of the residuals. The dynamic regression model with volatility regression of ARCH(1) and ARCH(2) are employed for the log return of BEXIMCO and SQUARE pharmaceutical respectively. A modified ARDL (2, 2) regression model is proposed for forecasting the log return for BEXIMCO and SQUARE pharmaceuticals. Predicted daily log return for BEXIMCO pharmaceuticals for 28 th December ,2016 is 0.78122,i.e. the gross return is 2.1236 with 1-step ahead volatility is 0.04701, whereas the actual return is 2.087. One can try to analyze the data considering dynamic models such as GARCH, PARCH, ARIMAX, EGARCH model and different dynamic panel data models to predict the data.   Key Words: Stock returns, Parkinson’s Volatility, ARCH model, Modified ARDL model

Variability of Rainfall by Some Others Climatic Phenomena in the Northern Part of Bangladesh

The main objectives of this study are to find the seasonal variations of rainfalls and it’s related some others climatic variables in the northern part of Bangladesh. Also a suitable panel regression model of rainfalls on these climatic variables is fitted. In this study, climatic data for different phenomena i.e. total monthly rainfall in millimeters, humidity in percentage, cloud covers in hour per day, average temperature per day in degree Celsius, bright sunshine in hour per day from 1981 to 2017 are collected from Bangladesh Meteorological Department. The selected explanatory variables humidity, temperature, cloud cover and bright sunshine are considered in this analysis. For the availability of data for all of these variables considered in this study, the weather stations of Bogura, Rajshahi and Rangpur are considered which are situated in the northern part of Bangladesh. Among these three cities, the overall average monthly rainfall is the highest in Rangpur with high variability and the lowest is in Rajshahi with low variability. For all these three cities seasonal effect of rainfall is the highest for the month of July, seasonal effect of sunshine is the highest for the month of March, and that of cloud cover is the highest for the month of July. But for humidity variable, the seasonal effects of Bogura and Rajshahi stations are the highest for the month of July but that for Rangpur station is in September. Since all of these time series data have seasonal variations and non-stationary so to run panel data regression model it is needed to be made transformation for getting stationary time series data. For rainfall data it is needed two times transformation to get stationary form. Firstly, using fourth root power transformation and the secondly make a twelve periods lag difference transformation to obtain stationary form. But for all other climatic variables only twelve periods lag difference transformation is sufficient for getting stationary form.  Insignificant Cook-Weisberg test statistic suggests the homoskedasticity and lowest variance inflating factor conferred the absent of multicollinearity among explanatory variables. A panel regression model is employed to check the effect of humidity, temperature, cloud cover and bright sunshine on rainfall which is conferred by Lagrange multipliers test statistic. Since hausman test statistic is insignificant hence the random effect panel regression model is considered. Coefficient of non-determination is 0.66, implies that about 34% variation of rainfall can be explained by these explanatory variables. Cloud cover, humidity and sunshine have significant positive effects on rainfall whereas average temperature has significant negative effect on rainfall. One can try to fit a dynamic panel regression model such as GMM with Arellano Bond correction or two steps analysis of panel data models for further study. Key Words: Rainfall, Variability, Hausman Test Statistic, Cook-Weisberg Test Statistic, Random Effect Panel Model

Teacher Educators and Trainee Teachers' Attitude toward Online Teacher Education Courses

The purpose of the study was to explore the attitude toward Online Teacher Education Courses (OTECs). To that end, this study was carried out over the teacher educators and trainee teachers of Bangladesh Open University. Here, teacher educators represent the faculty members of the School of Education (SoE) of Bangladesh Open University (BOU), and trainee teachers represent the Master of Education (M.Ed.) and Bachelor of Education (B.Ed.) students of BOU. A mixed research approach with triangulation was used to conduct the study with a descriptive survey, two Focus Group Discussions (FGDs), and one key personnel interview. Data were collected from a total of 602 teacher trainees (182 were M.Ed. students and 420 were B.Ed. students) and 12 teacher educators, selected through multiple sampling techniques. The  data revealed that the teacher educators and trainee teachers had a positive attitude towards online courses since the mean score of faculty members, M.Ed., and B.Ed. students of BOU were 3.60, 381, and 3.81, respectively. Considering all these aspects, this study suggested that SoE/BOU needs to decide rationally to shape its future Online Teacher Education Courses (OTECs). This research contributes to the basement of new knowledge through an explorative study with all the possible stakeholders covering the whole country of interest

Improvement of Carded Yarn Quality by Changing Ring Frame Break Draft for Different Short Fibre Index

Three types of cotton fibers lot having short fiber index (SFI) 8.65, 9.45 and 11.00 were taken to perform the experiment. The break drafts (BD) in ring frame were set to 1.136, 1.174 and 1.211 to produce the sample yarn; 30S /1 carded knit yarn (30KK) and 34S /1 carded knit yarn (34KK). The objective of this study was to find out the impact of short fibers by changing ring frame break draft on yarn quality and spinning process performance. The yarn quality such as CVm%, thin places (-50%)/km (TN), thick places (+50%)/km (TK), neps (+200%)/km (NP), count-strength product (CSP) and yarn hairiness (H) found satisfactory level for both yarn count in case of ring frame break draft 1.174 for low and high short fiber index. In this study, both physical and tensile properties of ring yarn were found better for ring frame break draft 1.174 of the three samples and quality deteriorates as SFI increases from 8.65 to 11.00

Engineering a Suburban Ad-Hoc Network

Networks are growing in popularity, as wireless communication hardware, both fixed and mobile, becomes more common and affordable. The Monash Suburban Ad-Hoc Network (SAHN) project has devised a system that provides a highly secure and survivable ad-hoc network, capable of delivering broadband speeds to co-operating users within a fixed environment, such as a residential neighbourhood, or a campus. The SAHN can be used by residents within a community to exchange information, to share access to the Internet, providing last-mile access, or for local telephony and video conferencing. SAHN nodes are designed to be self-configuring and selfmanaging, relying on no experienced user intervention. Thus, they are suitable for use by the general public, in ‘plug-and-play’ fashion. This paper investigates possible architectures for an implementation of the SAHN (Tyson 2005), and presents a real-world prototype. The prototype presented takes the form of a Linux kernel module, and a user-space daemon