The predictability of UK drought using European weather patterns

PhD thesisThis thesis explores the use of a 167-year daily weather pattern (WP) classification (MO-30) in UK meteorological drought prediction. As MO-30 was recently introduced, necessary analyses as a precursor to building a forecast model are conducted. First, an exploratory analysis of MO30’s fundamental characteristics and its relation to UK precipitation and drought climatology is carried out. Second, two novel methods to find weekly to seasonal persistence in MO-30 are used in order to assess if there is any inherent predictability within MO-30. Third, a statistical model based on historical analogues for predicting 30-day periods of WPs is constructed, from which precipitation forecasts are derived. Finally, a dynamical ensemble prediction system is applied to forecast WPs, with resultant precipitation estimated in the same way as for the statistical method. MO-30 is shown to be suitable for precipitation-based analyses in the UK. Furthermore, intraWP precipitation variability, defined by the interquartile range, is lower in MO-30 compared to another commonly used WP classification. Six WPs are associated with nationwide drought, with several other WPs linked to regional drought. Results from the persistence analysis show that there are multi-month periods when small sets of four to six WPs dominate, and some of these periods coincide with notable meteorological events, including droughts and storms. Some WPs also behave as ‘attractors’, showing increased probability of reoccurrence despite other WPs occurring in-between. The statistical method for WP and precipitation forecasts is no more skilful than climatology, suggesting that the model did not adequately exploit the persistence identified previously. However, WPs are shown to be potentially useful for drought forecasting, as an idealised, perfect prognostic model (with WP observations as inputs rather than predictions) substantially improves skill, with a skill score of almost 0.5 (out of one) for north-eastern regions. Using a dynamical model to predict WPs, while keeping the precipitation estimation procedure the same as for the purely statistical method, yields overall higher skill compared to a benchmark statistical method for predicting droughts. The model also outperforms direct (modelled) dynamical precipitation forecasts for lead-times greater than 16 days during winter and autumn, with the greatest skill advantage for western regions. This is despite the relatively modest skill scores of all forecast models (rarely above 0.4). Again, high skill scores, of almost 0.8 on occasions, are achieved by the perfect prognostic model, demonstrating the potential for incorporating WPs into precipitation and drought forecast systems

Zoning for Conservation Easements

Richardson and Bernard talk about zoning for conservation easements. Most conservation easements are perpetual and may have a huge impact on the land use in a community. With few exceptions, however, conservation easements have not been incorporated in any meaningful way into local land-use planning

Nonlinear optical thresholding in a 4-Channel OCDMA system via two-photon absorption

We demonstrate the use of a Two-Photon Absorption based detector in an OCDMA system. This detector provides a significant performance improvement over standard linear detection

Exploring taboo issues in professional sport through a fictional approach

While the need to consider life course issues in elite sport research and practice is increasingly recognised, some experiences still seem to be considered too dangerous to explore. Consequently, stories of these experiences are silenced and the ethical and moral questions they pose fail to be acknowledged, understood or debated. This paper presents an ethnographic fiction through which we explore a sensitive set of experiences that were uncovered during our research with professional sportspeople. Through a multi‐layered reconstruction, the story reveals the complex, but significant, relationships that exist between identity, cultural narratives and embodied experiences. After the telling we consider how the story has stimulated reflective practice among students, researchers and practitioners. While there are risks involved in writing and sharing taboo stories, the feedback we have received suggests that storytelling can be an effective pedagogical tool in education and professional development

The Intergroup Dynamics of a Metaphor: The School-to-Prison Pipeline

Among the several terms and phrases that populate the educational literature, both lay and professional, the phrase school-to-prison pipeline is without doubt the dominant, with few challengers in sight. Much like at-risk, or eight hour retarded child, linking specific school policies to subsequent incarceration captures the disturbing and seemingly entrenched statistics on racial inequity in schooling, doing so in a crisp imagery of a pipeline. With such a physical imagery, the phrase implies, or advances a causal connection between school practices and racial disparity of the harshest kind. It is no longer enough that minority and low-income students are at risk, mainly of dropping out; rather, the risks are now made conspicuously real and gravely consequential