L’hypothèse du revenu permanent avec attentes rationnelles : une évaluation économétrique canadienne

Depuis les travaux de Robert Hall (1978), l’hypothèse du revenu permanent avec attentes rationnelles (RP-AR) a été l’objet de nombreuses vérifications empiriques. Le but de cet article est de reprendre et d’unifier un certain nombre de tests qui ont été proposés à l’aide de la méthodologie d’Abel et Mishkin (1983) et de l’appliquer aux données canadiennes. Contrairement aux études précédentes, une attention particulière est accordée au traitement préliminaire des données afin de satisfaire l’hypothèse de stationnarité. Nos résultats empiriques confirment et renforcent les conclusions précédentes en mettant en évidence le rôle particulier de l’agrégat de consommation choisi lors du test.The work of Robert Hall (1978) on the stochastic implications of the rational expectations-permanent income (RE-PI) theory has initiated numerous empirical analysis. The purpose of this paper is to reexamine this question using the methodology recently proposed by Abel and Mishkin (1983) on a Canadian data set; we will show that the approach retained nicely generalize previous tests that have been applied. Furthermore, special attention will be devoted to the transformations necessary to achieve stationarity. Our results support and extend the previous rejections of the RE-PI hypothesis by highlighting the role played by the consumption aggregate used in the test

La motivation à poursuivre des activités liées au choix de carrière et le niveau d’indécision de carrière des étudiants du collégial

Conférence présentée lors du colloque « Journée de la recherche sur la motivation au collégial » Acfas, Montréal, 10 mai 201

Evaluation of an education and training program to prevent and manage patients’ violence in a mental health setting : a pretest-posttest intervention study

Workplace violence can lead to serious consequences for victims, organizations, and society. Most workplace violence prevention programs aim to train staff to better recognize and safely manage at-risk situations. The Omega education and training program was developed in Canada in 1999, and has since been used to teach healthcare and mental health workers the skills needed to effectively intervene in situations of aggression. The present study was designed to assess the impact of Omega on employee psychological distress, confidence in coping, and perceived exposure to violence. This program was offered to 105 employees in a psychiatric hospital in Montreal, Canada. Eighty-nine of them accepted to participate. Questionnaires were completed before the training, after a short period of time (M = 109 days) and at follow-up (M = 441 days). Repeated-measures ANOVAs and Cohen’s d effect sizes were calculated. Results demonstrated statistically significant improvements in short-term and follow-up posttest scores of psychological distress, confidence in coping, and in levels of exposure to violence. This study is one of very few to demonstrate the positive impact of this training program. Further research is needed to understand how to improve the effectiveness of the program, especially among participants resistant to change

The New Keynesian Phillips Curve: An empirical assessment

The recent works of Gali and Gertler (1999) and Gali, Gertler and Lopez-Salido (2001) provide evidence supporting the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC). This model posits the dynamics of inflation as being forward-looking and related to real marginal costs. In this paper, we examine the empirical relevance of their results for the United States. Our approach addresses several important econometric issues with the standard approaches typically used for estimation and inference in NKPC models. Using the continously-updated GMM estimator proposed by Hansen, Heaton and Yaron (1996) and the 3-step GMM estimator developed by Bonnal and Renault (2003), the empirical evidence of the NKPC is rather mixed. Specifically, results are sensitive to the instruments sets, normalisation, estimators, the sample period and revisions of dataGMM, Phillips Curve, Inflation dynamics

Anomalies de marché, indicateurs macro-économiques et rendement des titres des marchés émergents d’Asie

Dans cet article, nous analysons la relation entre les rendements des actions, leur risque systématique et les principales anomalies de marché, dans huit marchés émergents d’Asie. Les effets de taille, de ratio cours/bénéfice, du ratio de la valeur comptable à la valeur marchande ainsi que l’effet janvier sont analysés. Les modèles employés prennent en compte le caractère conditionnel des relations. L’examen des relations entre le rendement des titres et les variables spécifiques aux entreprises est mené en tenant compte des changements structurels importants relatifs à la libéralisation des marchés émergents. L’étude teste finalement les relations précédentes en prenant en compte les conditions macro-économiques changeantes qui caractérisent les pays émergents.This paper analyses the relationship between stock returns, systematic risk and stock market anomalies in eight Asian emerging markets. The size effect, the price/earnings, the book to market anomalies, and the January effect are examined. The models allow for the conditional aspects of the relationships. The structural changes induced by the liberalization process are considered in the model, together with the main economic indicators

Acute Stress Disorder Diagnosis, Clusters, and Symptoms as Predictors of Posttraumatic Stress Disorder, and Gender Differences in Victims of Violent Crimes

Violent crimes represent a societal problem, and victims, namely women, often develop posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Previous studies have identified acute stress disorder (ASD) as a predictor of PTSD, as well as dissociation. However, there are some inconsistencies regarding which cluster or symptom has better predictive power, and the impact of gender is still unknown in victims of violent crimes. The aim of this study was to determine the predictive power of full and partial ASD diagnosis, clusters, and symptoms according to gender. To do so, 39 women and 36 men were evaluated using validated semi-structured clinical interviews within 30 days post crime for ASD and 2 months later for PTSD. Results showed that 52% of individuals had full ASD and 20% has partial ASD, 40% had full PTSD and 17% had partial PTSD. Both full and partial ASD diagnoses, as well as all clusters, and most symptoms, were good predictors of PTSD. No gender differences were observed concerning the predictive power of ASD clusters and symptoms. The decreased emphasis on dissociative reactions in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fifth Edition (DSM 5) to establish an ASD diagnosis appears relevant to better identify women and men at risk of PTSD after a violent crime, and to deliver appropriate early preventive interventions

Anomalies de marché et sélection des titres au Canada

Cet article examine de manière conjointe les effets de la taille, des ratios bénéfice/cours et valeur comptable/valeur marchande des actions sur les rendements des actions canadiennes. Il présente une estimation des primes de risque associées à chacune de ces anomalies de marché. Les résultats confirment la très grande instabilité des relations entre les anomalies et les rendements des titres canadiens. Ainsi, même si les relations existent _en moyenne_, leur exploitation aux fins de sélection des titres reste extrêmement hasardeuse. Cet article examine de manière conjointe les effets de la taille, des ratios bénéfice/cours et valeur comptable/valeur marchande des actions sur les rendements des actions canadiennes. Il présente une estimation des primes de risque associées à chacune de ces anomalies de marché. Les résultats confirment la très grande instabilité des relations entre les anomalies et les rendements des titres canadiens. Ainsi, même si les relations existent _en moyenne_, leur exploitation aux fins de sélection des titres reste extrêmement hasardeuse.Asset selection; Market anomalies, Sélection des titres ; Anomalies de marché ; Rendement des titres ; Estimation des primes de risque

Estimation du PIB mensuel canadien : 1962 à 1985

Cet article estime une série mensuelle du Produit Intérieur Brut au prix du marché pour le Canada et un indice de prix correspondant pour la période 1962 à 1985. Ces estimés sont compatibles avec l’estimé trimestriel à la base de la nouvelle mesure du revenu national de Statistique Canada. Nous combinons les estimés trimestriels de Statistique Canada avec des données mensuelles en utilisant un filtre de Kalman. En plus de fournir un estimé mensuel du PIB réel, nous calculons aussi le seul indice de prix mensuel disponible associé à toute mesure de revenu au Canada.In this paper, we estimate a monthly series for Gross Domestic Product at market prices for Canada and a price deflator for the period 1962 to 1985. These estimates are consistent with the quarterly estimates which form the basis of the new national income measures of Statistics Canada. We combine the quarterly estimates from Statistics Canada with monthly data in a Kalman filter framework. In addition to presenting estimates of real GDP which can be used in monthly models, we present the only monthly price deflator or any income measure in Canada

Magnetic Navigation using Attitude-Invariant Magnetic Field Information for Loop Closure Detection

Indoor magnetic fields are a combination of Earth's magnetic field and disruptions induced by ferromagnetic objects, such as steel structural components in buildings. As a result of these disruptions, pervasive in indoor spaces, magnetic field data is often omitted from navigation algorithms in indoor environments. This paper leverages the spatially-varying disruptions to Earth's magnetic field to extract positional information for use in indoor navigation algorithms. The algorithm uses a rate gyro and an array of four magnetometers to estimate the robot's pose. Additionally, the magnetometer array is used to compute attitude-invariant measurements associated with the magnetic field and its gradient. These measurements are used to detect loop closure points. Experimental results indicate that the proposed approach can estimate the pose of a ground robot in an indoor environment within meter accuracy