Best Practices in Supervised Machine Learning: A Tutorial for Psychologists

Supervised machine learning (ML) is becoming an influential analytical method in psychology and other social sciences. However, theoretical ML concepts and predictive-modeling techniques are not yet widely taught in psychology programs. This tutorial is intended to provide an intuitive but thorough primer and introduction to supervised ML for psychologists in four consecutive modules. After introducing the basic terminology and mindset of supervised ML, in Module 1, we cover how to use resampling methods to evaluate the performance of ML models (bias-variance trade-off, performance measures, k-fold cross-validation). In Module 2, we introduce the nonlinear random forest, a type of ML model that is particularly user-friendly and well suited to predicting psychological outcomes. Module 3 is about performing empirical benchmark experiments (comparing the performance of several ML models on multiple data sets). Finally, in Module 4, we discuss the interpretation of ML models, including permutation variable importance measures, effect plots (partial-dependence plots, individual conditional-expectation profiles), and the concept of model fairness. Throughout the tutorial, intuitive descriptions of theoretical concepts are provided, with as few mathematical formulas as possible, and followed by code examples using the mlr3 and companion packages in R. Key practical-analysis steps are demonstrated on the publicly available PhoneStudy data set (N = 624), which includes more than 1,800 variables from smartphone sensing to predict Big Five personality trait scores. The article contains a checklist to be used as a reminder of important elements when performing, reporting, or reviewing ML analyses in psychology. Additional examples and more advanced concepts are demonstrated in online materials (https://osf.io/9273g/)

Does Your Smartphone “Know” Your Social Life? A Methodological Comparison of Day Reconstruction, Experience Sampling, and Mobile Sensing

Mobile sensing is a promising method that allows researchers to directly observe human social behavior in daily life using people’s mobile phones. To date, limited knowledge exists on how well mobile sensing can assess the quantity and quality of social interactions. We therefore examined the agreement among experience sampling, day reconstruction, and mobile sensing in the assessment of multiple aspects of daily social interactions (i.e., face-to-face interactions, calls, and text messages) and the possible unique access to social interactions that each method has. Over 2 days, 320 smartphone users (51% female, age range = 18–80, M = 39.53 years) answered up to 20 experience-sampling questionnaires about their social behavior and reconstructed their days in a daily diary. Meanwhile, face-to-face and smartphone-mediated social interactions were assessed with mobile sensing. The results showed some agreement between measurements of face-to-face interactions and high agreement between measurements of smartphone-mediated interactions. Still, a large number of social interactions were captured by only one of the methods, and the quality of social interactions is still difficult to capture with mobile sensing. We discuss limitations and the unique benefits of day reconstruction, experience sampling, and mobile sensing for assessing social behavior in daily life

Psychological well-being in Europe after the outbreak of war in Ukraine

The Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, has had devastating effects on the Ukrainian population and the global economy, environment, and political order. However, little is known about the psychological states surrounding the outbreak of war, particularly the mental well-being of individuals outside Ukraine. Here, we present a longitudinal experience-sampling study of a convenience sample from 17 European countries (total participants = 1,341, total assessments = 44,894, countries with >100 participants = 5) that allows us to track well-being levels across countries during the weeks surrounding the outbreak of war. Our data show a significant decline in well-being on the day of the Russian invasion. Recovery over the following weeks was associated with an individual’s personality but was not statistically significantly associated with their age, gender, subjective social status, and political orientation. In general, well-being was lower on days when the war was more salient on social media. Our results demonstrate the need to consider the psychological implications of the Russo-Ukrainian war next to its humanitarian, economic, and ecological consequences

A global experience-sampling method study of well-being during times of crisis : The CoCo project

We present a global experience-sampling method (ESM) study aimed at describing, predicting, and understanding individual differences in well-being during times of crisis such as the COVID-19 pandemic. This international ESM study is a collaborative effort of over 60 interdisciplinary researchers from around the world in the “Coping with Corona” (CoCo) project. The study comprises trait-, state-, and daily-level data of 7490 participants from over 20 countries (total ESM measurements = 207,263; total daily measurements = 73,295) collected between October 2021 and August 2022. We provide a brief overview of the theoretical background and aims of the study, present the applied methods (including a description of the study design, data collection procedures, data cleaning, and final sample), and discuss exemplary research questions to which these data can be applied. We end by inviting collaborations on the CoCo dataset

Psychological well-being in Europe after the outbreak of war in Ukraine

The Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, has had devastating effects on the Ukrainian population and the global economy, environment, and political order. However, little is known about the psychological states surrounding the outbreak of war, particularly the mental well-being of individuals outside Ukraine. Here, we present a longitudinal experience-sampling study of a convenience sample from 17 European countries (total participants = 1,341, total assessments = 44,894, countries with >100 participants = 5) that allows us to track well-being levels across countries during the weeks surrounding the outbreak of war. Our data show a significant decline in well-being on the day of the Russian invasion. Recovery over the following weeks was associated with an individual’s personality but was not statistically significantly associated with their age, gender, subjective social status, and political orientation. In general, well-being was lower on days when the war was more salient on social media. Our results demonstrate the need to consider the psychological implications of the Russo-Ukrainian war next to its humanitarian, economic, and ecological consequences

A global experience-sampling method study of well-being during times of crisis : the CoCo project

[Corrections added on 5 July 2023 after first online publication: The authorship footnote has been modified on page 1 and the duplicate phrase “experience sampling” has been removed on page 2.]We present a global experience-sampling method (ESM) study aimed at describing, predicting, and understanding individual differences in well-being during times of crisis such as the COVID-19 pandemic. This international ESM study is a collaborative effort of over 60 interdisciplinary researchers from around the world in the “Coping with Corona” (CoCo) project. The study comprises trait-, state-, and daily-level data of 7490 participants from over 20 countries (total ESM measurements = 207,263; total daily measurements = 73,295) collected between October 2021 and August 2022. We provide a brief overview of the theoretical background and aims of the study, present the applied methods (including a description of the study design, data collection procedures, data cleaning, and final sample), and discuss exemplary research questions to which these data can be applied. We end by inviting collaborations on the CoCo dataset.Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft.https://wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/spc3am2024PsychologySDG-03:Good heatlh and well-bein