Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. METHODS: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. FINDINGS: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. INTERPRETATION: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Estimation of meridional temperature gradient profile using Indian MST radar

165-169Meridional temperature gradient profile over Gadanki (13.47°N, 79.18°E) for the height range of 4-18 km with vertical resolution of 150 m is derived, assuming geostrophic wind balance in monthly mean zonal wind and hence thermal wind relationship at this latitude. This study is carried out for the year 1996, with monthly averaged wind data obtained from the Indian MST radar common mode observations. It is observed that average meridional temperature gradient is of the order of 0.5°C/555 km in the winter season with maximum value of 1°C/555 km at around 8 km, and in the summer season it is of the order of 1°C/555 km with a maximum value of 1.75°C/555 km in the height range of 8-15 km having another peak at around 17 km. This enhancement, which is consistent with larger vertical shear in zonal wind field, is probably due to latent heat released in this region after the onset of south-west monsoon. These derived values of meridional temperature gradient are compared with the observed values obtained by using radiosonde temperature data for two stations, <span style="font-size:14.0pt;line-height:115%; font-family:" times="" new="" roman";mso-fareast-font-family:"times="" roman";="" color:black;mso-ansi-language:en-in;mso-fareast-language:en-in;mso-bidi-language:="" hi"="" lang="EN-IN">Visakhapatnam<span style="font-size:14.0pt; line-height:115%;font-family:" times="" new="" roman";mso-fareast-font-family:"times="" roman";="" color:black;mso-ansi-language:en-in;mso-fareast-language:en-in;mso-bidi-language:="" hi"="" lang="EN-IN"> and Madras. These values are in good agreement,which prove the validity of the above cited approximation at this latitude.</span

Patchy layered structure of tropical troposphere as seen by Indian MST radar

182-191The MST radar observations at Gadanki (13.47° N, 79.18° E) show, almost every day throughout the year, stratified layers of intense reflectivity near the tropopause level (~17 km) and also at a couple of levels between 4 km and 10 km. Highest individual reflectivity values occur near 17 km, but they occur for a short while. The region between 11 km and 15 km shows the lowest values of reflectivity alongwith vertical downward motion almost on all days of the year. High values of reflectivity are attributed to the existence of visible or sub-visible clouds; the layered structure of clouds is attributed to inertio-gravity waves with vertical wavelength of 2-3 km. It is suggested that each high reflectivity layer consists mainly of thin sheets and patches of visible and sub-visible cloud material. Hydrometeors inside the cloud material go up and down due to gravity, precipitation-loading, Brunt-Vaisala oscillations, and Kelvin-Helmholtz waves. In these small-scale motions, thin air sheets and patches get formed with sharp temperature and humidity discontinuities through contact cooling, melting, evaporation, condensation and free zing. Also, melting and freezing at low temperatures generate electrical charges in these thin sheets and patches. These thin sheets and patches have vertical dimensions ranging from a few centimetres to several metres and horizontal dimensions of the order of 1 km. These thin sheets and patches have corresponding vertical and horizontal discontinuities and sharp gradients in refractive index for the MST radar beam. These show up as regions of high values of reflectivity

Patchy layered structure of tropical troposphere as seen by Indian MST radar

The MST radar observations at Gadanki (13.47 deg N, 79.18 deg E) show, almost every day throughout the year, stratified layers of intense reflectivity near the tropopause level (approximately 17 km) and also at a couple of levels between 4 km and 10 km. Highest individual reflectivity values occur near 17 km, but they occur for a short while. The region between 11 km and 15 km shows the lowest values of reflectivity along with vertical downward motion almost on all days of the year. High values of reflectivity are attributed to the existence of visible or sub-visible clouds; the layered structure of clouds is attributed to inertio-gravity waves with vertical wavelength of 2-3 km. It is suggested that each high reflectivity layer consists mainly of thin sheets and patches of visible and sub-visible cloud material. Hydrometeors inside the cloud material go up and down due to gravity, precipitation loading, Brunt-Vaisala oscillations, and Kelvin-Helmholtz waves. In these small-scale motions, thin air sheets and patches get formed with sharp temperature and humidity discontinuities through contact cooling, melting, evaporation, condensation, and freezing. Also, melting and freezing at low temperatures generate electrical charges in these thin sheets and patches. These thin sheets and patches have vertical dimensions ranging from a few centimeters to several meters and horizontal dimensions of the order of 1 km. These thin sheets and patches have corresponding vertical and horizontal discontinuities and sharp gradients in refractive index for the MST radar beam. These show up as regions of high values of reflectivity

Heavy flavour decay muon production at forward rapidity in proton–proton collisions at √s=7 TeV

The production of muons from heavy flavour decays is measured at forward rapidity in proton–proton collisions at √s=7 TeV collected with the ALICE experiment at the LHC. The analysis is carried out on a data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity Lint=16.5 nb−1. The transverse momentum and rapidity differential production cross sections of muons from heavy flavour decays are measured in the rapidity range 2.5<y<4, over the transverse momentum range 2<pt<12 GeV/c. The results are compared to predictions based on perturbative QCD calculations