Hawking Radiation and Analogue Experiments: A Bayesian Analysis

We present a Bayesian analysis of the epistemology of analogue experiments with particular reference to Hawking radiation. First, we prove that such experiments can be confirmatory in Bayesian terms based upon appeal to 'universality arguments'. Second, we provide a formal model for the scaling behaviour of the confirmation measure for multiple distinct realisations of the analogue system and isolate a generic saturation feature. Finally, we demonstrate that different potential analogue realisations could provide different levels of confirmation. Our results provide a basis both to formalise the epistemic value of analogue experiments that have been conducted and to advise scientists as to the respective epistemic value of future analogue experiments.Comment: 25 pages, 5 figure

A cluster expansion approach to exponential random graph models

The exponential family of random graphs is among the most widely-studied network models. We show that any exponential random graph model may alternatively be viewed as a lattice gas model with a finite Banach space norm. The system may then be treated by cluster expansion methods from statistical mechanics. In particular, we derive a convergent power series expansion for the limiting free energy in the case of small parameters. Since the free energy is the generating function for the expectations of other random variables, this characterizes the structure and behavior of the limiting network in this parameter region.Comment: 15 pages, 1 figur

NYANDHANG TARESNA

Karya tari Nyandhang Taresna  merupakan sebuah karya tari yang ber-genre langen carita. Karya ini terinspirasi dari sebuah cerita rakyat Madura tepatnya di Pulau Mandangin Sampang. Melalui rangsang visual ketika melihat perlombaan mendongeng berbahasa Madura, membuat koreografer terinspirasi untuk dikembangkan menjadi sebuah karya tari yang  bertema ketabahan. Ciri-ciri karya tari yang be-genre langen carita,  yaitu suatu karya tari diungkapkan  melalui   tiga aspek, yaitu gerak tari, sedikit dialog, dan tetembangan. Tetembangan berisikan tentang penggambaran dalam sebuah cerita. Cerita yang digunakan dalam karya tari ini berasal dari cerita rakyat yang berjudul Bangsacara dan Ragapatmi. Karya tari Nyandhang Taresna ini menceritakan ketabahan seorang ratu dalam menghadapi cobaan berupang kali, mulai dari munculnya penyakit kulit yang dideritanya hingga akhirnya terbuang dari istana kerajaan yang divisualisasikan dalam bentuk karya tari koreografi pendidikan ber-genre langen carita. Pada proses penciptaan ini teori yang menjadi pijakan koreografer untuk mempermudah dalam proses kreatif, yaitu teori pembentukan proses kreatif menurut Alma M. Hawkins dalam bukunya Creating Through Dance, yang terdiri dari, eksplorasi (exploration), improvisasi (improvisation), dan pembentukan (forming).Kata Kunci: genre, langen carita, ketabahan, dan Nyandhang Taresn

Two-point correlation properties of stochastic "cloud processes''

We study how the two-point density correlation properties of a point particle distribution are modified when each particle is divided, by a stochastic process, into an equal number of identical "daughter" particles. We consider generically that there may be non-trivial correlations in the displacement fields describing the positions of the different daughters of the same "mother" particle, and then treat separately the cases in which there are, or are not, correlations also between the displacements of daughters belonging to different mothers. For both cases exact formulae are derived relating the structure factor (power spectrum) of the daughter distribution to that of the mother. These results can be considered as a generalization of the analogous equations obtained in ref. [1] (cond-mat/0409594) for the case of stochastic displacement fields applied to particle distributions. An application of the present results is that they give explicit algorithms for generating, starting from regular lattice arrays, stochastic particle distributions with an arbitrarily high degree of large-scale uniformity.Comment: 14 pages, 3 figure

Institutional isomorphism, negativity bias and performance information use by politicians : a survey experiment

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Reactions and Surface Transformations of a Bone-Bioactive Material in a Simulated Microgravity Environment

A comprehensive program to investigate the expeditious in vitro formation of three-dimensional bone-like tissue is currently underway at the University of Pennsylvania. The study reported here forms a part of that program. Three-dimensional bone-like tissue structures may be grown under the simulated microgravity conditions of NASA designed Rotating Wall Bioreactor Vessels (RWV's). Such tissue growth will have wide clinical applications. In addition, an understanding of the fundamental changes that occur to bone cells under simulated microgravity would yield important information that will help in preventing or minimizing astronaut bone loss, a major health issue with travel or stay in space over long periods of time. The growth of three-dimensional bone-like tissue structures in RWV's is facilitated by the use of microcarriers which provide structural support. If the microcarrier material additionally promotes bone cell growth, then it is particularly advantageous to employ such microcarriers. We have found that reactive, bone-bioactive glass (BBG) is an attractive candidate for use as microcarrier material. Specifically, it has been found that BBG containing Ca- and P- oxides upregulates osteoprogenitor cells to osteoblasts. This effect on cells is preceded by BBG reactions in solution which result in the formation of a Ca-P surface layer. This surface further transforms to a bone-like mineral (i.e., carbonated crystalline hydroxyapatite (c-HA)). At normal gravity, time-dependent, immersion-induced BBG reactions and transformations are greatly affected both by variations in the composition of the milieu in which the glass is immersed and on the immersion conditions. However, the nature of BBG reactions and phase transformations under the simulated microgravity conditions of RWV's are unknown, and must be understood in order to successfully use BBG as microcarrier material in RWV'S. In this paper, we report some of our recent findings in this regard using experimental and numerical methods. BBG composition 45S5, the most reactive among known bone-bioactive glasses, was chosen for the study. BBG 45S5 behavior in physiological solutions was tested in simulated microgravity and compared with that at normal gravity. On the basis of our numerical study, we have chosen the BBG granule size to be in the range 40-70 microns, and a RWV rotational speed of 10 rpm. Our numerical study has shown that these parameters enable the microcarrier to remain suspended in the medium without experiencing collisions with the wall of the vessel. Immersion-induced changes in the solution composition and the material surface were analyzed after immersion

Crystalline ground states for classical particles

Pair interactions whose Fourier transform is nonnegative and vanishes above a wave number K_0 are shown to give rise to periodic and aperiodic infinite volume ground state configurations (GSCs) in any dimension d. A typical three dimensional example is an interaction of asymptotic form cos(K_0 r)/r^4. The result is obtained for densities rho >= rho_d where rho_1=K_0/2pi, rho_2=(sqrt{3}/8)(K_0/pi)^2 and rho_3=(1/8sqrt{2})(K_0/pi)^3. At rho_d there is a unique periodic GSC which is the uniform chain, the triangular lattice and the bcc lattice for d=1,2,3, respectively. For rho>rho_d the GSC is nonunique and the degeneracy is continuous: Any periodic configuration of density rho with all reciprocal lattice vectors not smaller than K_0, and any union of such configurations, is a GSC. The fcc lattice is a GSC only for rho>=(1/6 sqrt{3})(K_0/pi)^3.Comment: final versio

Confirmation via Analogue Simulation:What Dumb Holes Could Tell Us about Gravity

In this article we argue for the existence of ‘analogue simulation ’ as a novel form of scientific inference with the potential to be confirmatory. This notion is distinct from the modes of analogical reasoning detailed in the literature, and draws inspiration from fluid dynamical ‘dumb hole ’ analogues to gravitational black holes. For that case, which is considered in detail, we defend the claim that the phenomena of gravitational Hawking radiation could be confirmed in the case that its counterpart is detected within experi-ments conducted on diverse realizations of the analogue model. A prospectus is given for further potential cases of analogue simulation in contemporary science

International chicken trade and increased risk for introducing or reintroducing highly pathogenic avian influenza A (H5N1) to uninfected countries.

Every year billions of chickens are shipped thousands of miles around the globe in order to meet the ever increasing demands for this cheap and nutritious protein source. Unfortunately, transporting chickens internationally can also increase the chance for introducing zoonotic viruses, such as highly pathogenic avian influenza A (H5N1) to new countries. Our study used a retrospective analysis of poultry trading data from 2003 through 2011 to assess the risk of H5N1 poultry infection in an importing country. We found that the risk of infection in an importing country increased by a factor of 1.3 (95% CI: 1.1-1.5) for every 10-fold increase in live chickens imported from countries experiencing at least one H5N1 poultry case during that year. These results suggest that the risk in a particular country can be significantly reduced if imports from countries experiencing an outbreak are decreased during the year of infection or if biosecurity measures such as screening, vaccination, and infection control practices are increased. These findings show that limiting trade of live chickens or increasing infection control practices during contagious periods may be an important step in reducing the spread of H5N1 and other emerging avian influenza viruses