Assessment of human immediate response capability related to tsunami threats in Indonesia at a sub-national scale

Human immediate response is contextualized into different time compartments reflecting the tsunami early warning chain. Based on the different time compartments the available response time and evacuation time is quantified. The latter incorporates accessibility of safe areas determined by a hazard assessment, as well as environmental and demographic impacts on evacuation speed properties assessed using a Cost Distance Weighting GIS approach. Approximately 4.35 million Indonesians live in tsunami endangered areas on the southern coasts of Sumatra, Java and Bali and have between 20 and 150 min to reach a tsunami-safe area. Most endangered areas feature longer estimated-evacuation times and hence the population possesses a weak immediate response capability leaving them more vulnerable to being directly impacted by a tsunami. At a sub-national scale these hotspots were identified and include: the Mentawai islands off the Sumatra coast, various sub-districts on Sumatra and west and east Java. Based on the presented approach a temporal dynamic estimation of casualties and displacements as a function of available response time is obtained for the entire coastal area. As an example, a worst case tsunami scenario for Kuta (Bali) results in casualties of 25 000 with an optimal response time (direct evacuation when receiving a tsunami warning) and 120 000 for minimal response time (no evacuation). The estimated casualties correspond well to observed/reported values and overall model uncertainty is low with a standard error of 5%. The results obtained allow for prioritization of intervention measures such as early warning chain, evacuation and contingency planning, awareness and preparedness strategies down to a sub-district level and can be used in tsunami early warning decision support

The spectrum of the Hilbert space valued second derivative with general self-adjoint boundary conditions

We consider a large class of self-adjoint elliptic problem associated with the second derivative acting on a space of vector-valued functions. We present two different approaches to the study of the associated eigenvalues problems. The first, more general one allows to replace a secular equation (which is well-known in some special cases) by an abstract rank condition. The latter seems to apply particularly well to a specific boundary condition, sometimes dubbed "anti-Kirchhoff" in the literature, that arise in the theory of differential operators on graphs; it also permits to discuss interesting and more direct connections between the spectrum of the differential operator and some graph theoretical quantities. In either case our results yield, among other, some results on the symmetry of the spectrum

Simulating industrial scenarios with the open-source software MercuryDPM

Creating predictive computer simulations, i.e. virtual prototypes, of complex granular industrial processes has many challenges. In this paper we review recent advances in creating such virtual prototypes. We introduce the open-source code MercuryDPM [1], which is often applied to complex industrial applications via the spin-off company MercuryLab. We briefly discuss how to import complex industrial geometries and how to deal with large numbers of particles and wide size-distributions. Then we focus on how to create a computer representation of an actual granular material, the so-called model calibration. For calibration, we start by reviewing what parameters need to be measured and what experimental characterisation machines are available. We present an industrially practical calibration method, where certain parameters are directly measured and others are indirectly calibrated, using a variety of machine-learning techniques, implemented in the open-source codes GrainLearning [2], TensorFlow [3] and scikit-learn [4]. With GrainLearning, one can find local optima in only two to three iterations, even for complex contact models with many microscopic parameters. On the other hand, TensorFlow and scikit-learn use two popular supervised learning algorithms, Neural Network (NN) and Random Forest (RF) regression, respectivly. After a training period consisting of hundreds of particle simulations, NN and RF are capable of providing a mapping between the micro-parameters and the bulk behaviour, which can be used to find the optimal micro-parameters that correspond to the experimentally observed behaviour

Two-point function of strangeness-carrying vector-currents in two-loop Chiral Perturbation Theory

We calculate the correlator between two external vector-currents having the quantum-numbers of a charged kaon. We give the renormalized expression to two loops in standard chiral perturbation theory in the isospin limit, which, as a physical result, is finite and scale-independent. Applications include a low energy theorem, valid at two loop order, of a flavor breaking combination of vector current correlators as well as a determination of the phenomenologically relevant finite $O(p^6)$-counterterm combination $Q_V$ by means of inverse moment finite energy sum rules. This determination is less sensitive to isospin-breaking effects than previous attempts.Comment: 24 pages, revtex, 4 figures, 2 tables, revised version, one ref. adde

Standardizing Scavenger Receptor Nomenclature

Scavenger receptors constitute a large family of proteins that are structurally diverse and participate in a wide range of biological functions. These receptors are expressed predominantly by myeloid cells and recognize a variety of ligands, including endogenous and modified host-derived molecules and microbial pathogens. There are currently eight classes of scavenger receptors, many of which have multiple names, leading to inconsistencies and confusion in the literature. To address this problem, a workshop was organized by the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health to help develop a clear definition of scavenger receptors and a standardized nomenclature based on that definition. Fifteen experts in the scavenger receptor field attended the workshop and, after extensive discussion, reached a consensus regarding the definition of scavenger receptors and a proposed scavenger receptor nomenclature. Scavenger receptors were defined as cell surface receptors that typically bind multiple ligands and promote the removal of non-self or altered-self targets. They often function by mechanisms that include endocytosis, phagocytosis, adhesion, and signaling that ultimately lead to the elimination of degraded or harmful substances. Based on this definition, nomenclature and classification of these receptors into 10 classes were proposed. The discussion and nomenclature recommendations described in this report only refer to mammalian scavenger receptors. The purpose of this article is to describe the proposed mammalian nomenclature and classification developed at the workshop and to solicit additional feedback from the broader research community

Open Surgical versus Minimal Invasive Necrosectomy of the Pancreas-A Retrospective Multicenter Analysis of the German Pancreatitis Study Group

Background Necrotising pancreatitis, and particularly infected necrosis, are still associated with high morbidity and mortality. Since 2011, a step-up approach with lower morbidity rates compared to initial open necrosectomy has been established. However, mortality and complication rates of this complex treatment are hardly studied thereafter. Methods The German Pancreatitis Study Group performed a multicenter, retrospective study including 220 patients with necrotising pancreatitis requiring intervention, treated at 10 hospitals in Germany between January 2008 and June 2014. Data were analysed for the primary endpoints "severe complications" and "mortality" as well as secondary endpoints including "length of hospital stay", "follow up", and predisposing or prognostic factors. Results Of all patients 13.6% were treated primarily with surgery and 86.4% underwent a step-up approach. More men (71.8%) required intervention for necrotising pancreatitis. The most frequent etiology was biliary (41.4%) followed by alcohol (29.1%). Compared to open necrosectomy, the step-up approach was associated with a lower number of severe complications (primary composite endpoint including sepsis, persistent multiorgan dysfunction syndrome (MODS) and erosion bleeding: 44.7% vs. 73.3%), lower mortality (10.5% vs. 33.3%) and lower rates of diabetes mellitus type 3c (4.7% vs. 33.3%). Low hematocrit and low blood urea nitrogen at admission as well as a history of acute pancreatitis were prognostic for less complications in necrotising pancreatitis. A combination of drainage with endoscopic necrosectomy resulted in the lowest rate of severe complications. Conclusion A step-up approach starting with minimal invasive drainage techniques and endoscopic necrosectomy results in a significant reduction of morbidity and mortality in necrotising pancreatitis compared to a primarily surgical intervention

The role of cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging and computed tomography angiography in suspected non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction patients:Design and rationale of the CARdiovascular Magnetic rEsoNance imaging and computed Tomography Angiography (CARMENTA) trial

BackgroundAlthough high-sensitivity cardiac troponin (hs-cTn) substantially improves the early detection of myocardial injury, it lacks specificity for acute myocardial infarction (MI). In suspected non–ST-elevation MI, invasive coronary angiography (ICA) remains necessary to distinguish between acute MI and noncoronary myocardial disease (eg, myocarditis), unnecessarily subjecting the latter to ICA and associated complications. This trial investigates whether implementing cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) or computed tomography angiography (CTA) early in the diagnostic process may help to differentiate between coronary and noncoronary myocardial disease, thereby preventing unnecessary ICA.Study DesignIn this prospective, single-center, randomized controlled clinical trial, 321 consecutive patients with acute chest pain, elevated hs-cTnT, and nondiagnostic electrocardiogram are randomized to 1 of 3 strategies: (1) CMR, or (2) CTA early in the diagnostic process, or (3) routine clinical management. In the 2 investigational arms of the study, results of CMR or CTA will guide further clinical management. It is expected that noncoronary myocardial disease is detected more frequently after early noninvasive imaging as compared with routine clinical management, and unnecessary ICA will be prevented. The primary end point is the total number of patients undergoing ICA during initial admission. Secondary end points are 30-day and 1-year clinical outcome (major adverse cardiac events and major procedure-related complications), time to final diagnosis, quality of life, and cost-effectiveness.ConclusionThe CARMENTA trial investigates whether implementing CTA or CMR early in the diagnostic process in suspected non–ST-elevation MI based on elevated hs-cTnT can prevent unnecessary ICA as compared with routine clinical management, with no detrimental effect on clinical outcome

Meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies from the CHARGE consortium identifies common variants associated with carotid intima media thickness and plaque

Carotid intima media thickness (cIMT) and plaque determined by ultrasonography are established measures of subclinical atherosclerosis that each predicts future cardiovascular disease events. We conducted a meta-analysis of genome-wide association data in 31,211 participants of European ancestry from nine large studies in the setting of the Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology (CHARGE) Consortium. We then sought additional evidence to support our findings among 11,273 individuals using data from seven additional studies. In the combined meta-analysis, we identified three genomic regions associated with common carotid intima media thickness and two different regions associated with the presence of carotid plaque (P < 5 × 10 -8). The associated SNPs mapped in or near genes related to cellular signaling, lipid metabolism and blood pressure homeostasis, and two of the regions were associated with coronary artery disease (P < 0.006) in the Coronary Artery Disease Genome-Wide Replication and Meta-Analysis (CARDIoGRAM) consortium. Our findings may provide new insight into pathways leading to subclinical atherosclerosis and subsequent cardiovascular events