Anwar, Herryal Z.

Birkmann, Jörn

Gebert, Niklas

Muhari, Abdul

Mück, Matthias

Post, Joachim

Strunz, Günter

Taubenböck, Hannes

Wegscheider, Stephanie

Zosseder, Kai

English

Institute of Transport Research:Publications

Geophysical Research Abstracts,Vol. 11, EGU2009-12665, 2009EGU General Assembly 2009© Author(s) 2009Quantifying human response capabilities towards tsunami threats atcommunity levelJ. Post (1), M. Mück (1), K. Zosseder (1), S. Wegscheider (1), H. Taubenböck (2), G. Strunz (1), A. Muhari (3),H. Z. Anwar (4), J. Birkmann (5), and N. Gebert (5)(1) German Aerospace Center (DLR), German Remote Sensing Data Center, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany,Joachim.Post@dlr.de, (2) University of Wuerzburg, Institute of Geography, Department of Remote Sensing, Wuerzburg,Germany, (3) Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries, Jakarta, Indonesia, (4) Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI),Bandung, Indonesia, (5) United Nations University (UNU-EHS), Institute for Environment and Human Security, Bonn,GermanyDecision makers at the community level need detailed information on tsunami risks in their area. Knowledge onpotential hazard impact, exposed elements such as people, critical facilities and lifelines, people’s coping capacityand recovery potential are crucial to plan precautionary measures for adaptation and to mitigate potential impactsof tsunamis on society and the environment.A crucial point within a people-centred tsunami risk assessment is to quantify the human response capabil-ities towards tsunami threats. Based on this quantification and spatial representation in maps tsunami affected andsafe areas, difficult-to-evacuate areas, evacuation target points and evacuation routes can be assigned and used asan important contribution to e.g. community level evacuation planning.Major component in the quantification of human response capabilities towards tsunami impacts is the fac-tor time. The human response capabilities depend on the estimated time of arrival (ETA) of a tsunami, the timeuntil technical or natural warning signs (ToNW) can be received, the reaction time (RT) of the population (humanunderstanding of a tsunami warning and the decision to take appropriate action), the evacuation time (ET, timepeople need to reach a safe area) and the actual available response time (RsT = ETA - ToNW – RT). If RsT islarger than ET, people in the respective areas are able to reach a safe area and rescue themselves. Critical areaspossess RsT values equal or even smaller ET and hence people whin these areas will be directly affected by atsunami.Quantifying the factor time is challenging and an attempt to this is presented here. The ETA can be de-rived by analyzing pre-computed tsunami scenarios for a respective area. For ToNW we assume that the earlywarning center is able to fulfil the Indonesian presidential decree to issue a warning within 5 minutes. RT isdifficult as here human intrinsic factors as educational level, believe, tsunami knowledge and experience besidesothers play a role. An attempt to quantify this variable under high uncertainty is also presented. QuantifyingET is based on a GIS modelling using a Cost Weighted Distance approach. Basic principle is to define the bestevacuation path from a given point to the next safe area (shelter location). Here the fastest path from that pointto the shelter location has to be found. Thereby the impact of land cover, slope, population density, populationage and gender distribution are taken into account as literature studies prove these factors as highly important.Knowing the fastest path and the distance to the next safe area together with a spatially distributed pattern ofevacuation speed delivers the time needed from each location to a safe area.By considering now the obtained time value for RsT the coverage area of an evacuation target point (safearea) can be assigned. Incorporating knowledge on people capacity of an evacuation target point the respectivecoverage area is refined. Hence areas with weak, moderate and good human response capabilities can be detected.This allows calculation of potential amount of people affected (dead or injured) and amount of people dislocated.First results for Kuta (Bali) for a worst case tsunami event deliver people affected of approx. 25 000 when RT = 0minutes (direct evacuation when receiving a tsunami warning to 120 000 when RT > ETA (no evacuation actionuntil tsunami hits the land). Additionally fastest evacuation routes to the evacuation target points can be assigned.Areas with weak response capabilities can be assigned as priority areas to install e.g. additional evacuation targetpoints or to increase tsunami knowledge and awareness to promote a faster reaction time. Especially in analyzingunderlying socio-economic properties causing deficiencies in responding to a tsunami threat can lead to valuableinformation and direct planning of adaptation measures.Keywords: Community level, Risk and vulnerability assessment, Early warning, Disaster management,Tsunami, Indonesia

Quantifying human response capabilities towards tsunami threats at community level

Quantifying human response capabilities towards tsunami threats at community level

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