The Horsemen of the Apocalypse: Predictors of Recessions

For decades, many financial economists have suspected that an inverted yield curve predicts recession. This paper explores the accuracy of this belief by testing multiple variables and seeing if they result in a recession. The dependent variable tested is probability of a recession; independent variables tested are: three-month Treasury-bill minus ten-year Treasury note; controls include: three-month Treasury-bill yield to maturity, ten-year Treasury-note yield to maturity, number of months since last recession, equal-weighted return on the S&P 500, value-weighted return minus equal-weighted return, return on the S&P 500, rate of inflation, and the interaction between the difference between the three-month Treasury-bill and the ten-year Treasury-note. The null hypothesis is that there is no relationship between the variables and the likelihood of a recession. Failing to reject the null illustrates that there is a relationship between the inverted yield curve and the likelihood of a recession. Using logistic regression models, I find that when the previous month is not part of a recession, we fail to reject the null hypothesis because there is a relationship between the inverted yield curve and the likelihood of a recession. Consequently, the inverted yield curve is like ‘famine, the third horsemen of the apocalypse.’ My model shows that all the other variables are significant in revealing that the inverted yield curve is not the only predictor of a recession

A study of the relationship between age at entrance to Grade I and later reading achievement

This study was designed to investigate the relationship between age at time of entrance to Grade I and later reading achievement. In most schools of the Province of Newfoundland, children who are six years old by December 31 of the school year are eligible for admission to Grade I. The early entrants, ranging in age from five years eight months to five years eleven months, are expected to participate with the late entrants, ranging in age from six years to six years eight months. Some educators are of the opinion that the lack of maturity of many early entrants is a major cause of the failure of many of these children to make satisfactory progress during the elementary school period. -- Since other variables, if not controlled, might influence the findings, the extent to which such factors as kindergarten experience, sex, and the socio-economic status of the family influence reading achievement was also investigated. -- Data for the study were gathered from selected elementary schools in the city of St. John’s. The subjects were 320 eight-year-olds who had entered school in 1965, and who were at time of testing in Grade III, and 273 eleven-year-olds who had entered school in 1962, and who were at time of testing in Grade VI. Both age groups included a number of children who had begun school at the same time as their respective groups, but who had repeated a grade. -- Children who were six years old during the period September to December following entrance to Grade I were classified as early entrants. Children who were six years old during the period January to April preceding entrance to Grade I were classified as late entrants. Each group was further divided according to sex, kindergarten experience, and socio-economic status. The Lorge-Thorndike Intelligence Test and the Revised Nelson Reading Test were administered to all the children in the sample. -- Although data are given for the sample as a whole, statistical analysis was performed on a random sample of 160. -- The research hypotheses were tested by analysis of covariance. None of the interactions between the various factors - age, sex, kindergarten experience, and socio-economic status - were found to be significant. Significant differences were found between the reading achievement of early and late entrants, favouring the late entrants. Significant differences were also found between the reading achievement of children in the high and low socio-economic brackets, favouring those from high socio-economic backgrounds. Differences in reading achievement due to kindergarten experience and to sex were not significant

Early childhood lung function is a stronger predictor of adolescent lung function in cystic fibrosis than early Pseudomonas aeruginosa infection

Pseudomonas aeruginosa has been suggested as a major determinant of poor pulmonary outcomes in cystic fibrosis (CF), although other factors play a role. Our objective was to investigate the association of early childhood Pseudomonas infection on differences in lung function in adolescence with CF

An evaluation of Health Workers for Change in seven settings: a useful management and health system development tool

This paper presents the findings of a multi-centre study assessing the impact of Health Workers for Change (HWFC) workshops in seven different primary care sites, based on the common core protocol described in this paper. The paper discusses a common methodology used by the studies, consisting of a triangulation of qualitative and quantitative methods. Such methodologies are inherently complex as they require comparisons across systems, sites and procedures. The studies were conducted in six sites in Africa and one site in Argentina. Generally, the intervention resulted either in positive change or in no change, except in the area of staff relationships where conflicts were more frequent after the intervention than before. This may reflect a willingness to confront problems or contentious issues. Implementing the HWFC workshops improved provider-client relations, facility level functioning and aspects of staff interrelationships, and had some impact at the system level. All studies indicated that overall health system development is essential for improved service provision including quality of care. The findings also indicated that this intervention complemented and could assist health sector reform efforts and can play a role in sensitizing health workers to gender issues. The paper concludes with a discussion of the robustness of the methodology used in the studie

Adipose Concentrations of Organochlorine Compounds and Breast Cancer Recurrence in Long Island, New York

Several studies have measured the association between blood or adipose concentrations of organochlorinated compounds (OCs), such as pesticides and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), and breast cancer. The estrogenic effects of OCs might adversely affect breast cancer recurrence. The participants were 224 women with nonmetastatic breast cancer enrolled in a New York-based case-control study. Supercritical fluid extraction followed by gas chromatography was conducted on adipose surgical specimens to determine OC concentrations. The mean follow-up time from surgery was 3.6 years. Thirty women (13.4%) were diagnosed with a recurrence. The concentration of pesticides and PCBs was correlated with baseline age and body mass index, but not with cancer stage. The highest tertile of total PCB concentration was associated with an increased risk of recurrence [relative risk (RR), 2.9; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.02-8.2 versus the lowest tertile]. The risk for the highest tertile of the PCB congener Ballschmiter and Zell 118 was 4.0 (95% CI, 1.3-4.9). There was an increased risk for the middle level of the most abundant pesticide, 1,1-dichloro-2,2-di(4-chlorophenyl)ethylene (RR, 2.3; 95% CI, 0.9-5.7), and for beta-hexachlorocyclohexane, but not for their highest levels. Self-reported home termiticide exposure, alcohol consumption (> or = 1 drink/day), and race were not associated with prognosis. The RR for current cigarette smoking at diagnosis was 2.1 (95% CI, 0.9-5.1). In contrast to previous data showing no relationship between OC exposure and risk of breast cancer in these women, adipose PCB concentrations were associated with tumor recurrence. Pesticide levels were not related to recurrence

Clinical Features and Associated Likelihood of Primary Ciliary Dyskinesia in Children and Adolescents

Rationale: Primary ciliary dyskinesia (PCD), a genetically heterogeneous, recessive disorder of motile cilia, is associated with distinct clinical features. Diagnostic tests, including ultrastructural analysis of cilia, nasal nitric oxide measurements, and molecular testing for mutations in PCD genes, have inherent limitations

TEF, Vol. 2 No. 1

The second annual literary anthology of students writing from Stephen F Austin State College.https://scholarworks.sfasu.edu/tef/1001/thumbnail.jp

How Physicians Draw Satisfaction and Overcome Barriers in their Practices: “It Sustains Me”

Objective Major reorganizations of medical practice today challenge physicians’ ability to deliver compassionate care. We sought to understand how physicians who completed an intensive faculty development program in medical humanism sustain their humanistic practices. Methods Program completers from 8 U.S. medical schools wrote reflections in answer to two open-ended questions addressing their personal motivations and the barriers that impeded their humanistic practice and teaching. Reflections were qualitatively analyzed using the constant comparative method. Results Sixty-eight physicians (74% response rate) submitted reflections. Motivating factors included: 1) identification with humanistic values; 2) providing care that they or their family would want; 3) connecting to patients; 4) passing on values through role modelling; 5) being in the moment. Inhibiting factors included: 1) time, 2) stress, 3) culture, and 4) episodic burnout. Conclusions Determination to live by one’s values, embedded within a strong professional identity, allowed study participants to alleviate, but not resolve, the barriers. Collaborative action to address organizational impediments was endorsed but found to be lacking. Practice implications Fostering fully mature professional development among physicians will require new skills and opportunities that reinforce time-honored values while simultaneously partnering with others to nurture, sustain and improve patient care by addressing system issues