A Statistical Model to Explain the Mendel--Fisher Controversy

In 1866 Gregor Mendel published a seminal paper containing the foundations of modern genetics. In 1936 Ronald Fisher published a statistical analysis of Mendel's data concluding that "the data of most, if not all, of the experiments have been falsified so as to agree closely with Mendel's expectations." The accusation gave rise to a controversy which has reached the present time. There are reasonable grounds to assume that a certain unconscious bias was systematically introduced in Mendel's experimentation. Based on this assumption, a probability model that fits Mendel's data and does not offend Fisher's analysis is given. This reconciliation model may well be the end of the Mendel--Fisher controversy.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/10-STS342 the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Optimal diffusion in ecological dynamics with Allee effect in a metapopulation

How diffusion impacts on ecological dynamics under the Allee effect and spatial constraints? That is the question we address. Employing a microscopic minimal model in a metapopulation (without imposing nonlinear birth and death rates) we evince --- both numerically and analitically --- the emergence of an optimal diffusion that maximises the survival probability. Even though, at first such result seems counter-intuitive, it has empirical support from recent experiments with engineered bacteria. Moreover, we show that this optimal diffusion disappears for loose spatial constraints.Comment: 16 pages; 6 figure

Lorentz invariance for mixed neutrinos

We show that a proper field theoretical treatment of mixed (Dirac) neutrinos leads to non-trivial dispersion relations for the flavor states. We analyze such a situation in the framework of the non-linear relativity schemes recently proposed by Magueijo and Smolin. We finally examine the experimental implications of our theoretical proposals by considering the spectrum and the end-point of beta decay in tritium.Comment: 8 pages, 4 figures. Presented at 2nd International Workshop DICE2004: From Decoherence and Emergent Classicality to Emergent Quantum Mechanics, Castello di Piombino, Tuscany, Italy, 1-4 Sep 200

Spinwave damping in the two-dimensional ferromagnetic XY model

The effect of damping of spinwaves in a two-dimensional classical ferromagnetic XY model is considered. The damping rate $\Gamma_{q}$ is calculated using the leading diagrams due to the quartic-order deviations from the harmonic spin Hamiltonian. The resulting four-dimensional integrals are evaluated by extending the techniques developed by Gilat and others for spectral density types of integrals. $\Gamma_{q}$ is included into the memory function formalism due to Reiter and Solander, and Menezes, to determine the dynamic structure function $S(q,\omega)$. For the infinite sized system, the memory function approach is found to give non-divergent spinwave peaks, and a smooth nonzero background intensity (``plateau'' or distributed intensity) for the whole range of frequencies below the spinwave peak. The background amplitude relative to the spinwave peak rises with temperature, and eventually becomes higher than the spinwave peak, where it appears as a central peak. For finite-sized systems, there are multiple sequences of weak peaks on both sides of the spinwave peaks whose number and positions depend on the system size and wavevector in integer units of $2\pi/L$. These dynamical finite size effects are explained in the memory function analysis as due to either spinwave difference processes below the spinwave peak or sum processes above the spinwave peak. These features are also found in classical Monte Carlo -- Spin-Dynamics simulations.Comment: 20 two-column page

New housing supply: what do we know and how can we learn more?

This paper reviews the literature on new housing supply. The paper starts by summarizing the results of the empirical studies on housing supply, showing that overall these studies reject the hypothesis of a perfectly elastic housing supply and reveal that housing supply is negatively related with financial costs, inflation and sales delay while showing inconclusive results with respect to the construction costs. In addition, we review a recent branch of the literature on housing supply that uses strategic interaction models. There is evidence that the housing market is not well described by the perfect competition model. Thus, a deeper understanding of housing supply can be achieved by considering theoretical models that take into account the strategic interaction between land developers and by using data where the unit of analysis is the land developer.Housing supply; price elasticity of supply, strategic interaction.

Global and regional source attribution of Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli infections using analysis of outbreak surveillance data

Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) infections pose a substantial health and economic burden worldwide. To target interventions to prevent foodborne infections, it is important to determine the types of foods leading to illness. Our objective was to determine the food sources of STEC globally and for the six World Health Organization regions. We used data from STEC outbreaks that have occurred globally to estimate source attribution fractions. We categorised foods according to their ingredients and applied a probabilistic model that used information on implicated foods for source attribution. Data were received from 27 countries covering the period between 1998 and 2017 and three regions: the Americas (AMR), Europe (EUR) and Western-Pacific (WPR). Results showed that the top foods varied across regions. The most important sources in AMR were beef (40%; 95% Uncertainty Interval 39-41%) and produce (35%; 95% UI 34-36%). In EUR, the ranking was similar though with less marked differences between sources (beef 31%; 95% UI 28-34% and produce 30%; 95% UI 27-33%). In contrast, the most common source of STEC in WPR was produce (43%; 95% UI 36-46%), followed by dairy (27%; 95% UI 27-27%). Possible explanations for regional variability include differences in food consumption and preparation, frequency of STEC contamination, the potential of regionally predominant STEC strains to cause severe illness and differences in outbreak investigation and reporting. Despite data gaps, these results provide important information to inform the development of strategies for lowering the global burden of STEC infections