Simulating Rural Environmentally and Socio-Economically Constrained Multi-Activity and Multi-Decision Societies in a Low-Data Context: A Challenge Through Empirical Agent-Based Modeling

Development issues in developing countries belong to complex situations where society and environment are intricate. However, such sites lack the necessary amount of reliable, checkable data and information, while these very constraining factors determine the populations' evolutions, such as villagers living in Sahelian environments. Beyond a game-theory model that leads to a premature selection of the relevant variables, we build an individual-centered, empirical, KIDS-oriented (Keep It Descriptive & Simple), and multidisciplinary agent-based model focusing on the villagers\' differential accesses to economic and production activities according to social rules and norms, mainly driven by social criteria from which gender and rank within the family are the most important, as they were observed and registered during individual interviews. The purpose of the work is to build a valid and robust model that overcome this lack of data by building a individual specific system of behaviour rules conditioning these differential accesses showing the long-term catalytic effects of small changes of social rules. The model-building methodology is thereby crucial: the interviewing process provided the behaviour rules and criteria while the context, i.e. the economic, demographic and agro-ecological environment is described following published or unpublished literature. Thanks to a sensitivity analysis on several selected parameters, the model appears fairly robust and sensitive enough. The confidence building simulation outputs reasonably reproduces the dynamics of local situations and is consistent with three authors having investigated in our site. Thanks to its empirical approach and its balanced conception between sociology and agro-ecology at the relevant scale, i.e. the individual tied to social relations, limitations and obligations and connected with his/her biophysical and economic environment, the model can be considered as an efficient "trend provider" but not an absolute "figure provider" for simulating rural societies of the Nigrien Sahel and testing scenarios on the same context. Such ABMs can be a useful interface to analyze social stakes in development projects.Rule-Based Modelling, Rural Sahel, Confidence Building, Low-Data Context, Social Criteria

Targeting rural development interventions : empirical agent-based modeling in Nigerien villages

International audienceThe aim of this article is to analyze the impact of development interventions on the population of three Nigerien villages that differ in terms of their agro-ecological, social and economic characteristics. This is performed by simulating the behavior of individuals in an agent-based modeling framework which integrates the village characteristics as well as the family internal rules that condition access to economic and production activities. Villagers are differentiated according to the social and agro-ecological constraints they are subjected to. Two development project interventions are simulated, assuming no land scarcity: increasing the availability of inorganic fertilizers for farmers and an inventory credit technique based on millet grain. Two distinct approaches were used to model the rationale of farmers' decision making: gains or losses in economic value or gains or losses in within-village ''reputation''. Our results show that village populations do not respond en masse to development interventions. Reputation has little effect on the population behavior and should be considered more as a local proxy for wealth amongst villagers, suggesting the monetization of these societies. Populations involve themselves in the two simulated development interventions only at sites where savings are possible. Some level of household food security and investment capacity is actually required to take part in the development interventions, which are largely conditioned by family manpower and size. As long as uncultivated land remains available in the village territory, support for inorganic fertilizers has little impact in the absence of any intensification process. Inventory credit engages a maximum of 25% of the population at the site with medium agro-ecological conditions. Therefore, both interventions should be viewed as a potential support tool for a limited part of the population capable of going beyond the survival level, but not as a generic poverty-alleviation panacea

Testing Social-driven Forces on the Evolution of Sahelian Rural Systems: A Combined Agent-based Modeling and Anthropological Approach

International audienceThis article presents the results of a methodology combining an extensive fieldwork, a formalization of field-based individual rules and norms into an agent-based model and the implementation of scenarios analyzing the effects of social and agro-ecological constraints on rural farmers through the study of three different sites in Nigerien Sahel. Two family transition processes are here tested, following field observations and literature-based hypotheses: family organizations can evolve between a patriarchal mode and a non-cooperative one because of family income redistribution tensions. Family inheritance systems can shift between a "customary" mode and a "local Muslim" one through family land availability tensions. Our results show that both agro-ecological and socio-economic characteristics determine the simulated family type distribution and consequently the allocation of resources. Results from simulations with no evolution processes show that villages specialize themselves on different economic activities according to natural resources: An intensification gradient is observed from the most favored site, with more local productions and improved ecological indicators, to the less-favored one, with a growing proportion of the population wealth coming from migration remittances and "off-shore" livestock. Once introducing such processes, the differentiation also occurs within the population level, subdividing it into specializing groups according to their size, their assets and their social status. Emerging individualistic family types increase the village populations' robustness through different and site-specific evolutions

Reconstituting family transitions of Sahelian western Niger 1950-2000 : an agent-based modelling approach in a low data context

International audienceThis research analyses the impacts of the family organization on the diversity of income sources and the sustainability and the dynamics of rainfed farming systems of Sahelian Niger, through an individual-centred agent-based model which variables were defined through anthropological investigation. Results show that family organisation has strong effects on wealth levels and distribution and on demographic growth. They also suggest a historic shift from the patriarchal mode to a mono-nuclear mode in the 70's in this specific area, due to a higher resilience of the latter thanks to a broader diversification and a better adequacy between wealth and family demograph

The PBRM (perception-based regional mapping): A spatial method to support regional development initiatives

International audienceThis paper examines the relevance of a perception-based regional level mapping tool in rural Niger. Two regions in Niger are examined. Results permit to assume that such a tool helped to fill several gaps: (i) a scale gap between local and nation wide studies; (ii) a scientific gap between biophysical and socio-anthropological sciences; and (iii) a methodological gap of integration between data sources. Moreover, this method is fast, cheap and action-oriented. Data are easily understandable and usable both by rural communities and development agencies. It provides information about human dynamics at a regional level, which cannot be achieved by other method

Crowdsourcing for agricultural applications: A review of uses and opportunities for a farmsourcing approach

peer reviewedAbstract Crowdsourcing, understood as outsourcing tasks or data collection by a large group of non-professionals, is increasingly used in scientific research and operational applications. In this paper, we reviewed crowdsourcing initiatives in agricultural science and farming activities and further discussed the particular characteristics of this approach in the field of agriculture. On-going crowdsourcing initiatives in agriculture were analysed and categorised according to their crowdsourcing component. We identified eight types of agricultural data and information that can be generated from crowdsourcing initiatives. Subsequently we described existing methods of quality control of the crowdsourced data. We analysed the profiles of potential contributors in crowdsourcing initiatives in agriculture, suggested ways for increasing farmers’ participation, and discussed the on-going initiatives in the light of their target beneficiaries. While crowdsourcing is reported to be an efficient way of collecting observations relevant to environmental monitoring and contributing to science in general, we pointed out that crowdsourcing applications in agriculture may be hampered by privacy issues and other barriers to participation. Close connections with the farming sector, including extension services and farm advisory companies, could leverage the potential of crowdsourcing for both agricultural research and farming applications. This paper coins the term of farmsourcing as a professional crowdsourcing strategy in farming activities and provides a source of recommendations and inspirations for future collaborative actions in agricultural crowdsourcing

VHR imagery to quantify crop response to fertilizer and develop business services for smallholders

Food needs arising from the demographic explosion of sub-Saharan Africa can only be met through agricultural intensification. Smallholder systems feature enormous yield gaps, which may be reduced through ISFM and other sustainable intensification practices. However, today’s huge variability in farming practices and returns on investments is likely to exacerbate in the future. Monitoring changes in productivity across scales is a significant challenge in heterogeneous systems, where overall low SOM and nutrient deficiencies prevail. Fortunately, remote sensing can help monitor crop performance at levels of granularity increasingly compatible with smallholder farming. This opens support applications for precision agriculture, allowing the exploitation – rather than the mitigation – of spatial heterogeneity, and the demonstration that enhanced productivity and livelihoods are possible in complex cropping systems

Accuracy assessment of a 300 m global land cover map : the GlobCover experience

The GlobCover project supported by ESA has developed an operational service dedicated to the generation of global land cover maps through an automated classification of MERIS FRS time series. This paper reports the independent accuracy assessment of the global GlobCover product as the first global exercise implemented according to the CEOS Land Product Validation group recommendations. Based on a network of 16 international experts and on-line tools, a unique, globally distributed reference data set was collected in a standardized manner and used to derive mapping accuracy figures. The overall accuracy, weighted by the area proportions of the various land cover classes, is 73 % based on a set of 3167 samples. These results are discussed with regards to the previous experiences. (Résumé d'auteur

Clinical Impact of MALDI-TOF MS Identification and Rapid Susceptibility Testing on Adequate Antimicrobial Treatment in Sepsis with Positive Blood Cultures.

Shortening the turn-around time (TAT) of positive blood culture (BC) identification (ID) and susceptibility results is essential to optimize antimicrobial treatment in patients with sepsis. We aimed to evaluate the impact on antimicrobial prescription of a modified workflow of positive BCs providing ID and partial susceptibility results for Enterobacteriaceae (EB), Pseudomonas aeruginosa and Staphylococcus aureus on the day of BC positivity detection. This study was divided into a pre-intervention period (P0) with a standard BC workflow followed by 2 intervention periods (P1, P2) with an identical modified workflow. ID was performed with MALDI-TOF MS from blood, on early or on overnight subcultures. According to ID results, rapid phenotypic assays were realized to detect third generation cephalosporin resistant EB/P. aeruginosa or methicillin resistant S. aureus. Results were transmitted to the antimicrobial stewardship team for patient's treatment revision. Times to ID, to susceptibility results and to optimal antimicrobial treatment (OAT) were compared across the three study periods. Overall, 134, 112 and 154 positive BC episodes in P0, P1 and P2 respectively were included in the analysis. Mean time to ID (28.3 hours in P0) was reduced by 65.3% in P1 (10.2 hours) and 61.8% in P2 (10.8 hours). Mean time to complete susceptibility results was reduced by 27.5% in P1 and 27% in P2, with results obtained after 32.4 and 32.6 hours compared to 44.7 hours in P0. Rapid tests allowed partial susceptibility results to be obtained after a mean time of 11.8 hours in P1 and 11.7 hours in P2. Mean time to OAT was decreased to 21.6 hours in P1 and to 17.9 hours in P2 compared to 36.1 hours in P0. Reducing TAT of positive BC with MALDI-TOF MS ID and rapid susceptibility testing accelerated prescription of targeted antimicrobial treatment thereby potentially improving the patients' clinical outcome