A macrodata processor for ECAP (electronic circuit analysis program)

The ECAP Macrodata Processor is a set of modifications to the circuit analysis program ECAP, giving it a generalized stored model capability. Sets of ECAP data statements from source cards are defined as units and given unique names by the user. These sets, hereafter referred to as macros, are stored on a disc file by the program

Factors affecting the recovery of Mexican wolves in the Southwest United States

Recovering and maintaining large carnivore populations is a global conservation challenge that requires better knowledge of the factors affecting their populations, particularly in shared landscapes (i.e. non-protected areas where people occupy and or utilize the land). The Mexican wolf (Canis lupus baileyi) is an endangered wolf subspecies being recovered on shared landscapes in the Southwest United States and Mexico. We used data from the U.S. program to model population growth, evaluate the impact of management removal and illegal killing relative to other demographic factors, and test hypotheses about factors influencing rates of management removal and illegal killing. From 1998 to 2019, the population growth averaged 12% per year. Rates of natural reproduction, illegal killing and other mortality remained consistent over the 22 years; while releases, translocations and management removals varied markedly between two time periods, phase 1:1998–2007 and phase 2:2008–2019. The number of wolves removed for conflict management was higher during phase 1 (average ~ 13 per year, rate = 24.8%) than phase 2 (average of ~5 per year, rate = 5.2%). This decrease in management removal resulted in the wolf population resuming growth after a period of population stagnation. Two factors influenced this decrease, a change in policy regarding removal of wolves (stronger modelling support) and a decrease in the number of captive-reared adult wolves released into the wild (weaker modelling support). Illegal mortality was relatively constant across both phases, but after the decrease in management removal, illegal mortality became the most important factor (relative importance shifted from 28.2% to 50.1%). Illegal mortality was positively correlated with rates of reintroduction and translocation of wolves and negatively correlated with the rate of management removal. 6. Synthesis and applications. Using management removal to reduce human–carnivore conflict can have negative population impacts if not used judiciously. Recovering and maintaining carnivore populations in shared landscapes may require greater tolerance of conflict and more emphasis on effective conflict prevention strategies and compensation programs for affected stakeholders

A comparison of cost and quality of three methods for estimating density for wild pig (\u3ci\u3eSus scrofa\u3c/i\u3e)

A critical element in effective wildlife management is monitoring the status of wildlife populations; however, resources to monitor wildlife populations are typically limited. We compared cost effectiveness of three common population estimation methods (i.e. non-invasive DNA sampling, camera sampling, and sampling from trapping) by applying them to wild pigs (Sus scrofa) across three habitats in South Carolina, U.S.A where they are invasive. We used mark-recapture analyses for fecal DNA sampling data, spatially-explicit capture-recapture analyses for camera sampling data, and a removal analysis for removal sampling from trap data. Density estimates were similar across methods. Camera sampling was the least expensive, but had large variances. Fecal DNA sampling was the most expensive, although this technique generally performed well. We examined how reductions in effort by method related to increases in relative bias or imprecision. For removal sampling, the largest cost savings while maintaining unbiased density estimates was from reducing the number of traps. For fecal DNA sampling, a reduction in effort only minimally reduced costs due to the need for increased lab replicates while maintaining high quality estimates. For camera sampling, effort could only be marginally reduced before inducing bias. We provide a decision tree for researchers to help make monitoring decisions

Accounting for heterogeneous invasion rates reveals management impacts on the spatial expansion of an invasive species

Success of large-scale control programs for established invasive species is challenging to evaluate because of spatial variability in expansion rates, management techniques, and the strength of management intensity. For a well-established invasive species in the spreading phase of invasion, a useful metric of impact is the magnitude by which control slows the rate of spatial spread. The prevention of spatial spreading likely results in substantial benefits in terms of ecosystem or economic damage that is prevented by an expanding invasive species. To understand how local management actions could impact the spatial spread of an established invasive species, we analyzed distribution and management data for feral swine across contiguous United States using occupancy analysis. We quantified changes in the rate of spatial expansion of feral swine and its relationship to local management actions. We found that after 4 yr of enhanced control, invasion probability decreased by 8% on average relative to pre-program rates. This decrease was as high as 15% on average in states with low-density populations of feral swine. The amount of decrease in invasion rate was attributed to removal intensity in neighboring counties and depended on the extent of neighboring counties with feral swine (spatial heterogeneity in local invasion pressure). Although we did not find a significant overall increase in the probability of elimination, increased elimination probability tended to occur in regions with low invasion pressure. Accounting for spatial heterogeneity in invasion pressure was important for quantifying management impacts (i.e., the relationship between management intensity and spatial spreading processes) because management impacts changed depending on the strength of invasion pressure from neighboring counties. Predicting reduction in spatial spread of an invasive species is an important first step in valuation of overall damage reduction for invasive species control programs by providing estimates of where a species may be, and thus which natural and agricultural resources would be affected, if the control program had not been operating. For minimizing losses from spatial expansion of an invasive species, our framework can be used for adaptive resource prioritization to areas where spatial expansion and underlying damage potential are concurrently highest

Accounting for heterogeneous invasion rates reveals management impacts on the spatial expansion of an invasive species

Success of large-scale control programs for established invasive species is challenging to evaluate because of spatial variability in expansion rates, management techniques, and the strength of management intensity. For a well-established invasive species in the spreading phase of invasion, a useful metric of impact is the magnitude by which control slows the rate of spatial spread. The prevention of spatial spreading likely results in substantial benefits in terms of ecosystem or economic damage that is prevented by an expanding invasive species. To understand how local management actions could impact the spatial spread of an established invasive species, we analyzed distribution and management data for feral swine across contiguous United States using occupancy analysis. We quantified changes in the rate of spatial expansion of feral swine and its relationship to local management actions. We found that after 4 yr of enhanced control, invasion probability decreased by 8% on average relative to pre-program rates. This decrease was as high as 15% on average in states with low-density populations of feral swine. The amount of decrease in invasion rate was attributed to removal intensity in neighboring counties and depended on the extent of neighboring counties with feral swine (spatial heterogeneity in local invasion pressure). Although we did not find a significant overall increase in the probability of elimination, increased elimination probability tended to occur in regions with low invasion pressure. Accounting for spatial heterogeneity in invasion pressure was important for quantifying management impacts (i.e., the relationship between management intensity and spatial spreading processes) because management impacts changed depending on the strength of invasion pressure from neighboring counties. Predicting reduction in spatial spread of an invasive species is an important first step in valuation of overall damage reduction for invasive species control programs by providing estimates of where a species may be, and thus which natural and agricultural resources would be affected, if the control program had not been operating. For minimizing losses from spatial expansion of an invasive species, our framework can be used for adaptive resource prioritization to areas where spatial expansion and underlying damage potential are concurrently highest

Leveraging eco-evolutionary models for gene drive risk assessment

Engineered gene drives create potential for both widespread benefits and irreversible harms to ecosystems. CRISPR-based systems of allelic conversion have rapidly accelerated gene drive research across diverse taxa, putting field trials and their necessary risk assessments on the horizon. Dynamic processbased models provide flexible quantitative platforms to predict gene drive outcomes in the context of system-specific ecological and evolutionary features. Here, we synthesize gene drive dynamic modeling studies to highlight research trends, knowledge gaps, and emergent principles, organized around their genetic, demographic, spatial, environmental, and implementation features. We identify the phenomena that most significantly influence model predictions, discuss limitations of biological complexity and uncertainty, and provide insights to promote responsible development and model-assisted risk assessment of gene drives. Supplemental files attached belo

Effects of scale of movement, detection probability, and true population density on common methods of estimating population density

Knowledge of population density is necessary for effective management and conservation of wildlife, yet rarely are estimators compared in their robustness to effects of ecological and observational processes, which can greatly influence accuracy and precision of density estimates. In this study, we simulate biological and observational processes using empirical data to assess effects of animal scale of movement, true population density, and probability of detection on common density estimators. We also apply common data collection and analytical techniques in the field and evaluate their ability to estimate density of a globally widespread species. We find that animal scale of movement had the greatest impact on accuracy of estimators, although all estimators suffered reduced performance when detection probability was low, and we provide recommendations as to when each field and analytical technique is most appropriately employed. The large influence of scale of movement on estimator accuracy emphasizes the importance of effective post-hoc calculation of area sampled or use of methods that implicitly account for spatial variation. In particular, scale of movement impacted estimators substantially, such that area covered and spacing of detectors (e.g. cameras, traps, etc.) must reflect movement characteristics of the focal species to reduce bias in estimates of movement and thus density

Integrating Behavioral Health & Primary Care in New Hampshire: A Path Forward to Sustainable Practice & Payment Transformation

New Hampshire residents face challenges with behavioral and physical health conditions and the interplay between them. National studies show the costs and the burden of illness from behavioral health conditions and co-occurring chronic health conditions that are not adequately treated in either primary care or behavioral health settings. Bringing primary health and behavioral health care together in integrated care settings can improve outcomes for both behavioral and physical health conditions. Primary care integrated behavioral health works in conjunction with specialty behavioral health providers, expanding capacity, improving access, and jointly managing the care of patients with higher levels of acuity In its work to improve the health of NH residents and create effective and cost-effective systems of care, the NH Citizens Health Initiative (Initiative) created the NH Behavioral Health Integration Learning Collaborative (BHI Learning Collaborative) in November of 2015, as a project of its Accountable Care Learning Network (NHACLN). Bringing together more than 60 organizations, including providers of all types and sizes, all of the state’s community mental health centers, all of the major private and public insurers, and government and other stakeholders, the BHI Learning Collaborative built on earlier work of a NHACLN Workgroup focused on improving care for depression and co-occurring chronic illness. The BHI Learning Collaborative design is based on the core NHACLN philosophy of “shared data and shared learning” and the importance of transparency and open conversation across all stakeholder groups. The first year of the BHI Learning Collaborative programming included shared learning on evidence-based practice for integrated behavioral health in primary care, shared data from the NH Comprehensive Healthcare Information System (NHCHIS), and work to develop sustainable payment models to replace inadequate Fee-for-Service (FFS) revenues. Provider members joined either a Project Implementation Track working on quality improvement projects to improve their levels of integration or a Listen and Learn Track for those just learning about Behavioral Health Integration (BHI). Providers in the Project Implementation Track completed a self-assessment of levels of BHI in their practice settings and committed to submit EHR-based clinical process and outcomes data to track performance on specified measures. All providers received access to unblinded NHACLN Primary Care and Behavioral Health attributed claims data from the NHCHIS for provider organizations in the NH BHI Learning Collaborative. Following up on prior work focused on developing a sustainable model for integrating care for depression and co-occurring chronic illness in primary care settings, the BHI Learning Collaborative engaged consulting experts and participants in understanding challenges in Health Information Technology and Exchange (HIT/HIE), privacy and confidentiality, and workforce adequacy. The BHI Learning Collaborative identified a sustainable payment model for integrated care of depression in primary care. In the process of vetting the payment model, the BHI Learning Collaborative also identified and explored challenges in payment for Substance Use Disorder Screening, Brief Intervention and Referral to Treatment (SBIRT). New Hampshire’s residents will benefit from a health care system where primary care and behavioral health are integrated to support the care of the whole person. New Hampshire’s current opiate epidemic accentuates the need for better screening for behavioral health issues, prevention, and treatment referral integrated into primary care. New Hampshire providers and payers are poised to move towards greater integration of behavioral health and primary care and the Initiative looks forward to continuing to support progress in supporting a path to sustainable integrated behavioral and primary care

AMH/MIS as a contraceptive that protects the ovarian reserve during chemotherapy

The ovarian reserve represents the stock of quiescent primordial follicles in the ovary which is gradually depleted during a woman\u27s reproductive lifespan, resulting in menopause. Mullerian inhibiting substance (MIS) (or anti-Mullerian hormone/AMH), which is produced by granulosa cells of growing follicles, has been proposed as a negative regulator of primordial follicle activation. Here we show that long-term parenteral administration of superphysiological doses of MIS, using either an adeno-associated virus serotype 9 (AAV9) gene therapy vector or recombinant protein, resulted in a complete arrest of folliculogenesis in mice. The ovaries of MIS-treated mice were smaller than those in controls and did not contain growing follicles but retained a normal ovarian reserve. When mice treated with AAV9/MIS were paired with male breeders, they exhibited complete and permanent contraception for their entire reproductive lifespan, disrupted vaginal cycling, and hypergonadotropic hypogonadism. However, when ovaries from AAV9-MIS-treated mice were transplanted orthotopically into normal recipient mice, or when treatment with the protein was discontinued, folliculogenesis resumed, suggesting reversibility. One of the important causes of primary ovarian insufficiency is chemotherapy-induced primordial follicle depletion, which has been proposed to be mediated in part by increased activation. To test the hypothesis that MIS could prevent chemotherapy-induced overactivation, mice were given carboplatin, doxorubicin, or cyclophosphamide and were cotreated with AAV9-MIS, recombinant MIS protein, or vehicle controls. We found significantly more primordial follicles in MIS-treated animals than in controls. Thus treatment with MIS may provide a method of contraception with the unique characteristic of blocking primordial follicle activation that could be exploited to prevent the primary ovarian insufficiency often associated with chemotherapy