GAN for time series prediction, data assimilation and uncertainty quantification

We propose a new method in which a generative adversarial network (GAN) is used to quantify the uncertainty of forward simulations in the presence of observed data. Previously, a method has been developed which enables GANs to make time series predictions and data assimilation by training a GAN with unconditional simulations of a high-fidelity numerical model. After training, the GAN can be used to predict the evolution of the spatial distribution of the simulation states and observed data is assimilated. In this paper, we describe the process required in order to quantify uncertainty, during which no additional simulations of the high-fidelity numerical model are required. These methods take advantage of the adjoint-like capabilities of generative models and the ability to simulate forwards and backwards in time. Set within a reduced-order model framework for efficiency, we apply these methods to a compartmental model in epidemiology to predict the spread of COVID-19 in an idealised town. The results show that the proposed method can efficiently quantify uncertainty in the presence of measurements using only unconditional simulations of the high-fidelity numerical model.Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:2105.0772

Effect of heat treatment and aging on the mechanical loss and strength of hydroxide catalysis bonds between fused silica samples

Hydroxide catalysis bonds are used in the aLIGO gravitational wave detectors and are an essential technology within the mirror suspensions which allowed for detector sensitivities to be reached that enabled the first direct detections of gravitational waves. Methods aimed at further improving hydroxide catalysis bonds for future upgrades to these detectors, in order to increase detection rates and the number of detectable sources, are explored. Also, the effect on the bonds of an aLIGO suspension construction procedure involving heat, the fibre welding process, is investigated. Here we show that thermal treatments can be beneficial to improving some of the bond properties important to the mirror suspensions in interferometric gravitational wave detectors. It was found that heat treating bonds at 150\,^\circC increases bond strength by a factor of approximately 1.5 and a combination of bond ageing and heat treatment of the optics at 150\,\circC reduces the mechanical loss of a bond from 0.10 to 0.05. It is also shown that current construction procedures do not reduce bond strength

Data Assimilation Predictive GAN (DA-PredGAN): applied to determine the spread of COVID-19

We propose the novel use of a generative adversarial network (GAN) (i) to make predictions in time (PredGAN) and (ii) to assimilate measurements (DA-PredGAN). In the latter case, we take advantage of the natural adjoint-like properties of generative models and the ability to simulate forwards and backwards in time. GANs have received much attention recently, after achieving excellent results for their generation of realistic-looking images. We wish to explore how this property translates to new applications in computational modelling and to exploit the adjoint-like properties for efficient data assimilation. To predict the spread of COVID-19 in an idealised town, we apply these methods to a compartmental model in epidemiology that is able to model space and time variations. To do this, the GAN is set within a reduced-order model (ROM), which uses a low-dimensional space for the spatial distribution of the simulation states. Then the GAN learns the evolution of the low-dimensional states over time. The results show that the proposed methods can accurately predict the evolution of the high-fidelity numerical simulation, and can efficiently assimilate observed data and determine the corresponding model parameters

Lagrangian Framework for Systems Composed of High-Loss and Lossless Components

Using a Lagrangian mechanics approach, we construct a framework to study the dissipative properties of systems composed of two components one of which is highly lossy and the other is lossless. We have shown in our previous work that for such a composite system the modes split into two distinct classes, high-loss and low-loss, according to their dissipative behavior. A principal result of this paper is that for any such dissipative Lagrangian system, with losses accounted by a Rayleigh dissipative function, a rather universal phenomenon occurs, namely, selective overdamping: The high-loss modes are all overdamped, i.e., non-oscillatory, as are an equal number of low-loss modes, but the rest of the low-loss modes remain oscillatory each with an extremely high quality factor that actually increases as the loss of the lossy component increases. We prove this result using a new time dynamical characterization of overdamping in terms of a virial theorem for dissipative systems and the breaking of an equipartition of energy.Comment: 53 pages, 1 figure; Revision of our original manuscript to incorporate suggestions from refere

24^{24}Mg(pp, α\alpha)21^{21}Na reaction study for spectroscopy of 21^{21}Na

The $^{24}$Mg($p$, $\alpha$)$^{21}$Na reaction was measured at the Holifield Radioactive Ion Beam Facility at Oak Ridge National Laboratory in order to better constrain spins and parities of energy levels in $^{21}$Na for the astrophysically important $^{17}$F($\alpha, p$)$^{20}$Ne reaction rate calculation. 31 MeV proton beams from the 25-MV tandem accelerator and enriched $^{24}$Mg solid targets were used. Recoiling $^{4}$He particles from the $^{24}$Mg($p$, $\alpha$)$^{21}$Na reaction were detected by a highly segmented silicon detector array which measured the yields of $^{4}$He particles over a range of angles simultaneously. A new level at 6661 $\pm$ 5 keV was observed in the present work. The extracted angular distributions for the first four levels of $^{21}$Na and Distorted Wave Born Approximation (DWBA) calculations were compared to verify and extract angular momentum transfer.Comment: 11 pages, 6 figures, proceedings of the 18th International Conference on Accelerators and Beam Utilization (ICABU2014

The DICE calibration project: design, characterization, and first results

We describe the design, operation, and first results of a photometric calibration project, called DICE (Direct Illumination Calibration Experiment), aiming at achieving precise instrumental calibration of optical telescopes. The heart of DICE is an illumination device composed of 24 narrow-spectrum, high-intensity, light-emitting diodes (LED) chosen to cover the ultraviolet-to-near-infrared spectral range. It implements a point-like source placed at a finite distance from the telescope entrance pupil, yielding a flat field illumination that covers the entire field of view of the imager. The purpose of this system is to perform a lightweight routine monitoring of the imager passbands with a precision better than 5 per-mil on the relative passband normalisations and about 3{\AA} on the filter cutoff positions. The light source is calibrated on a spectrophotometric bench. As our fundamental metrology standard, we use a photodiode calibrated at NIST. The radiant intensity of each beam is mapped, and spectra are measured for each LED. All measurements are conducted at temperatures ranging from 0{\deg}C to 25{\deg}C in order to study the temperature dependence of the system. The photometric and spectroscopic measurements are combined into a model that predicts the spectral intensity of the source as a function of temperature. We find that the calibration beams are stable at the $10^{-4}$ level -- after taking the slight temperature dependence of the LED emission properties into account. We show that the spectral intensity of the source can be characterised with a precision of 3{\AA} in wavelength. In flux, we reach an accuracy of about 0.2-0.5% depending on how we understand the off-diagonal terms of the error budget affecting the calibration of the NIST photodiode. With a routine 60-mn calibration program, the apparatus is able to constrain the passbands at the targeted precision levels.Comment: 25 pages, 27 figures, accepted for publication in A&

Rape and respectability: ideas about sexual violence and social class

Women on low incomes are disproportionately represented among sexual violence survivors, yet feminist research on this topic has paid very little attention to social class. This article blends recent research on class, gender and sexuality with what we know about sexual violence. It is argued that there is a need to engage with classed distinctions between women in terms of contexts for and experiences of sexual violence, and to look at interactions between pejorative constructions of working-class sexualities and how complainants and defendants are perceived and treated. The classed division between the sexual and the feminine, drawn via the notion of respectability, is applied to these issues. This piece is intended to catalyse further research and debate, and raises a number of questions for future work on sexual violence and social class

The importance of children and young person involvement in scoping the need for a paediatric glucocorticoid-associated patient reported outcome measure.

BackgroundFor many children and young people (CYP) with paediatric rheumatic conditions, glucocorticoid medications and their associated side-effects have a substantial impact on disease experience. Whilst there are physician-rated measures of glucocorticoid toxicity, no parallel patient reported measure has been developed to date for CYP with rheumatic disease. This manuscript describes a series of public patient involvement (PPI) events to inform the development of a future paediatric glucocorticoid-associated patient reported outcome measure (PROM).MethodsOne large group PPI event was advertised to CYP with experience of glucocorticoid medication use and their parents through clinicians, charities and existing PPI groups. This featured education on the team's research into glucocorticoid medication and interactive polls/structured discussion to help participants share their experiences. Further engagement was sought for PPI group work to co-develop future glucocorticoid studies, including development of a glucocorticoid associated PROM. Quantitative and qualitative feedback was collected from online questionnaires. The initiative was held virtually due to the Covid-19 pandemic.ResultsNine families (n = 15) including 6 CYP joined the large group PPI event. Online pre-attendance and post-attendance questionnaires showed improvement in mean self-reported confidence [1 = not at all confident, 5 = very confident] in the following: what steroid medications are (pre = 3.9, post = 4.8), steroid side effects (pre = 3.8, post = 4.6), patient-reported outcome measures (pre = 2.0, post = 4.5), available research on steroids (pre = 2.2, post = 3.5). Five families (n = 7) were involved in a monthly PPI group who worked alongside the research team to identify priorities in glucocorticoid research, produce age-appropriate study materials, identify barriers to study participation (e.g. accessibility & convenience) and recommend appropriate modalities for dissemination. The participants found discussing shared experiences and learning about research to be the most enjoyable aspects of the initiative.ConclusionsThis PPI initiative provided a valuable forum for families, including young children, to share their perspectives. Here, the authors explore the effective use of PPI in a virtual setting and provide a unique case study for the involvement of CYP in PROM development. The monthly PPI group also identified a need for the development of a new PROM related to glucocorticoid medication use and provided unique insights into how such a study could be structured

Direct reaction measurements with a 132Sn radioactive ion beam

The (d,p) neutron transfer and (d,d) elastic scattering reactions were measured in inverse kinematics using a radioactive ion beam of 132Sn at 630 MeV. The elastic scattering data were taken in a region where Rutherford scattering dominated the reaction, and nuclear effects account for less than 8% of the cross section. The magnitude of the nuclear effects was found to be independent of the optical potential used, allowing the transfer data to be normalized in a reliable manner. The neutron-transfer reaction populated a previously unmeasured state at 1363 keV, which is most likely the single-particle 3p1/2 state expected above the N=82 shell closure. The data were analyzed using finite range adiabatic wave calculations and the results compared with the previous analysis using the distorted wave Born approximation. Angular distributions for the ground and first excited states are consistent with the previous tentative spin and parity assignments. Spectroscopic factors extracted from the differential cross sections are similar to those found for the one neutron states beyond the benchmark doubly-magic nucleus 208Pb.Comment: 22 pages, 7 figure