105 research outputs found

    Clinical, Genomic, and Immunological Characterization of RSV Surge in Sydney, Australia, 2022.

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    OBJECTIVES: The 2022 seasonal respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) epidemic in Sydney, Australia saw an unprecedented number of RSV detections. We aimed to characterize genomic and immunologic factors associated with the surge in RSV cases. METHODS: Whole genome sequences of RSV were generated from 264 RSV-infected infants and linked to case-matched clinical data from the 2022 southern hemisphere RSV season. We then performed an immunologic analysis of baseline RSV-specific humoral immunity in women of childbearing age before and throughout the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. RESULTS: Clinical analysis revealed a high burden of disease across patients of all health backgrounds. More than one-half of RSV-related health care visits by infants resulted in hospitalization, and one-quarter required high-flow respiratory support or a higher level of care. Viral phylogenetic analyses revealed that 2022 Sydney RSV sequences were closely related to viruses that had been circulating globally since 2017, including those detected in recent US outbreaks. Nonsynonymous mutations within the palivizumab and nirsevimab binding sites were detected at low frequencies. There was no difference in baseline RSV-neutralizing antibody titers between 2020 and 2022. CONCLUSIONS: Collectively, these findings suggest that neither the emergence of a novel RSV genotype nor hypothesized immune debt was associated with the surge of RSV cases and hospitalizations in 2022. Continued genomic and immunologic surveillance is required to further understand the factors driving outbreaks of RSV globally, and to inform guidelines for the rollout and ongoing use of recently developed immunotherapeutics and vaccines

    Coverage gaps in empiric antibiotic regimens used to treat serious bacterial infections in neonates and children in Southeast Asia and the Pacific

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    Background: High levels of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) are propagating deaths due to neonatal and paediatric infections globally. This is of particular concern in Southeast Asia and the Pacific, where healthcare resources are constrained and access to newer agents to treat multidrug-resistant pathogens is limited. Methods: To assess the coverage provided by commonly prescribed empiric antibiotic regimens for children in low- and middle-income countries in Southeast Asia and the Pacific, we built a weighted incidence syndromic combination antibiogram (WISCA), parameterised using data obtained from a systematic review of published literature incorporating WHO-defined SEARO and WPRO regions in Ovid MEDLINE, EMBASE, Global Health and PubMed. Susceptibility data for bacterial pathogens were extracted to provide coverage estimates for pre-specified antibiotics (aminopenicillins, gentamicin, third-generation cephalosporins and carbapenems), reported at the regional level. Findings: 6648 bacterial isolates from 11 countries across 86 papers were included in the Bayesian WISCA model, which weighted bacterial incidence and antimicrobial susceptibility of relevant isolates. Coverage provided by aminopenicillins in neonatal sepsis/meningitis was 26% (80% credible interval: 16–49) whilst gentamicin coverage was 45% (29–62). Third-generation cephalosporin coverage was only 29% (16–49) in neonatal sepsis/meningitis, 51% (38–64) in paediatric sepsis and 65% (51–77) in paediatric meningitis. Carbapenems were estimated to provide the highest coverage: 81% (65–90) in neonatal sepsis/meningitis, 83% (72–90) in paediatric sepsis and 79% (62–91) in paediatric meningitis. Interpretation: These findings reveal alarmingly high rates of resistance to commonly prescribed empirical therapies for neonatal and paediatric sepsis and meningitis in the Asia–Pacific region

    Global burden of bacterial antimicrobial resistance 1990-2021: a systematic analysis with forecasts to 2050

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    Background Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) poses an important global health challenge in the 21st century. A previous study has quantified the global and regional burden of AMR for 2019, followed with additional publications that provided more detailed estimates for several WHO regions by country. To date, there have been no studies that produce comprehensive estimates of AMR burden across locations that encompass historical trends and future forecasts. Methods We estimated all-age and age-specific deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributable to and associated with bacterial AMR for 22 pathogens, 84 pathogen–drug combinations, and 11 infectious syndromes in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021. We collected and used multiple cause of death data, hospital discharge data, microbiology data, literature studies, single drug resistance profiles, pharmaceutical sales, antibiotic use surveys, mortality surveillance, linkage data, outpatient and inpatient insurance claims data, and previously published data, covering 520 million individual records or isolates and 19 513 study-location-years. We used statistical modelling to produce estimates of AMR burden for all locations, including those with no data. Our approach leverages the estimation of five broad component quantities: the number of deaths involving sepsis; the proportion of infectious deaths attributable to a given infectious syndrome; the proportion of infectious syndrome deaths attributable to a given pathogen; the percentage of a given pathogen resistant to an antibiotic of interest; and the excess risk of death or duration of an infection associated with this resistance. Using these components, we estimated disease burden attributable to and associated with AMR, which we define based on two counterfactuals; respectively, an alternative scenario in which all drug-resistant infections are replaced by drug-susceptible infections, and an alternative scenario in which all drug-resistant infections were replaced by no infection. Additionally, we produced global and regional forecasts of AMR burden until 2050 for three scenarios: a reference scenario that is a probabilistic forecast of the most likely future; a Gram-negative drug scenario that assumes future drug development that targets Gram-negative pathogens; and a better care scenario that assumes future improvements in health-care quality and access to appropriate antimicrobials. We present final estimates aggregated to the global, super-regional, and regional level. Findings In 2021, we estimated 4·71 million (95% UI 4·23–5·19) deaths were associated with bacterial AMR, including 1·14 million (1·00–1·28) deaths attributable to bacterial AMR. Trends in AMR mortality over the past 31 years varied substantially by age and location. From 1990 to 2021, deaths from AMR decreased by more than 50% among children younger than 5 years yet increased by over 80% for adults 70 years and older. AMR mortality decreased for children younger than 5 years in all super-regions, whereas AMR mortality in people 5 years and older increased in all super-regions. For both deaths associated with and deaths attributable to AMR, meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus increased the most globally (from 261 000 associated deaths [95% UI 150 000–372 000] and 57 200 attributable deaths [34 100–80 300] in 1990, to 550 000 associated deaths [500 000–600 000] and 130 000 attributable deaths [113 000–146 000] in 2021). Among Gram-negative bacteria, resistance to carbapenems increased more than any other antibiotic class, rising from 619 000 associated deaths (405 000–834 000) in 1990, to 1·03 million associated deaths (909 000–1·16 million) in 2021, and from 127 000 attributable deaths (82 100–171 000) in 1990, to 216 000 (168 000–264 000) attributable deaths in 2021. There was a notable decrease in non-COVID-related infectious disease in 2020 and 2021. Our forecasts show that an estimated 1·91 million (1·56–2·26) deaths attributable to AMR and 8·22 million (6·85–9·65) deaths associated with AMR could occur globally in 2050. Super-regions with the highest all-age AMR mortality rate in 2050 are forecasted to be south Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean. Increases in deaths attributable to AMR will be largest among those 70 years and older (65·9% [61·2–69·8] of all-age deaths attributable to AMR in 2050). In stark contrast to the strong increase in number of deaths due to AMR of 69·6% (51·5–89·2) from 2022 to 2050, the number of DALYs showed a much smaller increase of 9·4% (–6·9 to 29·0) to 46·5 million (37·7 to 57·3) in 2050. Under the better care scenario, across all age groups, 92·0 million deaths (82·8–102·0) could be cumulatively averted between 2025 and 2050, through better care of severe infections and improved access to antibiotics, and under the Gram-negative drug scenario, 11·1 million AMR deaths (9·08–13·2) could be averted through the development of a Gram-negative drug pipeline to prevent AMR deaths. Interpretation This study presents the first comprehensive assessment of the global burden of AMR from 1990 to 2021, with results forecasted until 2050. Evaluating changing trends in AMR mortality across time and location is necessary to understand how this important global health threat is developing and prepares us to make informed decisions regarding interventions. Our findings show the importance of infection prevention, as shown by the reduction of AMR deaths in those younger than 5 years. Simultaneously, our results underscore the concerning trend of AMR burden among those older than 70 years, alongside a rapidly ageing global community. The opposing trends in the burden of AMR deaths between younger and older individuals explains the moderate future increase in global number of DALYs versus number of deaths. Given the high variability of AMR burden by location and age, it is important that interventions combine infection prevention, vaccination, minimisation of inappropriate antibiotic use in farming and humans, and research into new antibiotics to mitigate the number of AMR deaths that are forecasted for 2050. Funding UK Department of Health and Social Care's Fleming Fund using UK aid, and the Wellcome Trust

    Accuracy versus precision in boosted top tagging with the ATLAS detector

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    Abstract The identification of top quark decays where the top quark has a large momentum transverse to the beam axis, known as top tagging, is a crucial component in many measurements of Standard Model processes and searches for beyond the Standard Model physics at the Large Hadron Collider. Machine learning techniques have improved the performance of top tagging algorithms, but the size of the systematic uncertainties for all proposed algorithms has not been systematically studied. This paper presents the performance of several machine learning based top tagging algorithms on a dataset constructed from simulated proton-proton collision events measured with the ATLAS detector at √ s = 13 TeV. The systematic uncertainties associated with these algorithms are estimated through an approximate procedure that is not meant to be used in a physics analysis, but is appropriate for the level of precision required for this study. The most performant algorithms are found to have the largest uncertainties, motivating the development of methods to reduce these uncertainties without compromising performance. To enable such efforts in the wider scientific community, the datasets used in this paper are made publicly available.</jats:p

    Guidelines for the treatment of dysentery (shigellosis): a systematic review of the evidence

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    Background: Shigella remains the primary cause of diarrhoea in paediatric patients worldwide and accounts for up to 40,000 deaths per year. Current guidelines for the treatment of shigellosis are based on data which are over a decade old. In an era of increasing antimicrobial resistance, an updated review of the appropriate empirical therapy for shigellosis in children is necessary, taking into account susceptibility patterns, cost and the risk of adverse events. Methods: A systematic review of the current published literature on the treatment of shigella dysentery was undertaken in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA). Results: The initial search produced 131 results, of which nine studies met the inclusion criteria. The quality of the studies was assessed as per the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) guidelines. International guidelines were also reviewed. There is a lack of current research regarding the clinical treatment of shigellosis in paediatric and adult patients, despite rising antimicrobial resistance worldwide. In particular, there is a lack of studies assessing the non-susceptibility of community-acquired strains, with almost all published research pertaining to microbiological data from hospital-based settings. Discussion: Current WHO guidelines support the use of fluoroquinolones (first-line), β-lactams (second-line) and cephalosporins (second-line) which accords with currently available evidence and other international guidelines, and there is no strong evidence for changing this guidance. Azithromycin is appropriate as a second-line therapy in regions where the rate of non-susceptibility of ciprofloxacin is known to be high, and research suggests that, from a cardiac point of view, azithromycin is safer than other macrolide antibiotics. Cefixime is also a reasonable alternative, although its use must be weighed against the risk of dissemination of extended-spectrum β-lactamase-producing organisms
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