87 research outputs found

    A quantitative evaluation of the issue of drought definition: a source of disagreement in future drought assessments

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    Droughts are anticipated to intensify in many parts of the world due to climate change. However, the issue of drought definition, namely the diversity of drought indices, makes it difficult to compare drought assessments. This issue is widely known, but its relative importance has never been quantitatively evaluated in comparison to other sources of uncertainty. Here, encompassing three drought categories (meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts) with four temporal scales of interest, we evaluated changes in the drought frequency using multi-model and multi-scenario simulations to identify areas where the definition issue could result in pronounced uncertainties and to what extent. We investigated the disagreement in the signs of changes between drought definitions and decomposed the variance into four main factors: drought definitions, greenhouse gas concentration scenarios, global climate models, and global water models, as well as their interactions. The results show that models were the primary sources of variance over 82% of the global land area. On the other hand, the drought definition was the dominant source of variance in the remaining 17%, especially in parts of northern high-latitudes. Our results highlight specific regions where differences in drought definitions result in a large spread among projections, including areas showing opposite signs of significant changes. At a global scale, 7% of the variance resulted independently from the definition issue, and that value increased to 44% when 1st and 2nd order interactions were considered. The quantitative results suggest that by clarifying hydrological processes or sectors of interest, one could avoid these uncertainties in drought assessments to obtain a clearer picture of future drought change

    The timing of unprecedented hydrological drought under climate change

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    Droughts that exceed the magnitudes of historical variation ranges could occur increasingly frequently under future climate conditions. However, the time of the emergence of unprecedented drought conditions under climate change has rarely been examined. Here, using multimodel hydrological simulations, we investigate the changes in the frequency of hydrological drought (defined as abnormally low river discharge) under high and low greenhouse gas concentration scenarios and existing water resource management measures and estimate the time of the first emergence of unprecedented regional drought conditions centered on the low-flow season. The times are detected for several subcontinental-scale regions, and three regions, namely, Southwestern South America, Mediterranean Europe, and Northern Africa, exhibit particularly robust results under the high-emission scenario. These three regions are expected to confront unprecedented conditions within the next 30 years with a high likelihood regardless of the emission scenarios. In addition, the results obtained herein demonstrate the benefits of the lower-emission pathway in reducing the likelihood of emergence. The Paris Agreement goals are shown to be effective in reducing the likelihood to the unlikely level in most regions. However, appropriate and prior adaptation measures are considered indispensable when facing unprecedented drought conditions. The results of this study underscore the importance of improving drought preparedness within the considered time horizons

    Macropore space morphology by image analysis: its relationships with mass transfers during weathering

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    Identifying unknown metabolites using NMR-based metabolic profiling techniques

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    Metabolic profiling of biological samples provides important insights into multiple physiological and pathological processes, but is hindered by a lack of automated annotation and standardised methods for structure elucidation of candidate disease biomarkers. Here, we describe a system for identifying molecular species derived from NMR spectroscopy based metabolic phenotyping studies, with detailed info on sample preparation, data acquisition, and data modelling. We provide eight different modular workflows to be followed in a recommended sequential order according to their level of difficulty. This multi-platform system involves the use of statistical spectroscopic tools such as STOCSY, STORM and RED-STORM to identify other signals in the NMR spectra relating to the same molecule. It also utilizes 2D-NMR spectroscopic analysis, separation and pre-concentration techniques, multiple hyphenated analytical platforms and data extraction from existing databases. The complete system, using all eight workflows, would take up to a month, as it includes multidimensional NMR experiments that require prolonged experiment times. However, easier identification cases using fewer steps would take two or three days. This approach to biomarker discovery is efficient, cost-effective and offers increased chemical space coverage of the metabolome, resulting in faster and more accurate assignment of NMR-generated biomarkers arising from metabolic phenotyping studies. Finally, it requires basic understanding of Matlab in order to perform statistical spectroscopic tools and analytical skills to perform Solid Phase Extraction, LC-fraction collection, LC-NMR-MS and 1D and 2D NMR experiments

    Exploring the potential for planning support systems to bridge the research-translation gap between public health and urban planning

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    Background: There is consensus that planning professionals need clearer guidance on the features that are likely to produce optimal community-wide health benefits. However, much of this evidence resides in academic literature and not in tools accessible to the diverse group of professionals shaping our cities. Incorporating health-related metrics into the planning support systems (PSS) provides an opportunity to apply empirical evidence on built environment relationships with health-related outcomes to inform real-world land use and transportation planning decisions. This paper explores the role of planning support systems (PSS) to facilitate the translation and application of health evidence into urban planning and design practices to create healthy, liveable communities. Methods: A review of PSS software and a literature review of studies featuring a PSS modelling built environmental features and health impact assessment for designing and creating healthy urban areas was undertaken. Customising existing software, a health impact PSS (the Urban Health Check) was then piloted with a real-world planning application to evaluate the usefulness and benefits of a health impact PSS for demonstrating and communicating potential health impacts of design scenarios in planning practice. Results: Eleven PSS software applications were identified, of which three were identified as having the capability to undertake health impact analyses. Three studies met the inclusion criteria of presenting a planning support system customised to support health impact assessment with health impacts modelled or estimated due to changes to the built environment. Evaluation results indicated the Urban Health Check PSS helped in four key areas: visualisation of how the neighbourhood would change in response to a proposed plan; understanding how a plan could benefit the community; Communicate and improve understanding health of planning and design decisions that positively impact health outcomes. Conclusions: The use of health-impact PSS have the potential to be transformative for the translation and application of health evidence into planning policy and practice, providing those responsible for the policy and practice of designing and creating our communities with access to quantifiable, evidence-based information about how their decisions might impact community health. © The Author(s) 2021

    Designing healthy communities: Creating evidence on metrics for built environment features associated with walkable neighbourhood activity centres

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    Background: Evidence-based metrics are needed to inform urban policy to create healthy walkable communities. Most active living research has developed metrics of the environment around residential addresses, ignoring other important walking locations. Therefore, this study examined: metrics for built environment features surrounding local shopping centres, (known in Melbourne, Australia as neighbourhood activity centres (NACs) which are typically anchored by a supermarket); the association between NACs and transport walking; and, policy compliance for supermarket provision. Methods: In this observational study, cluster analysis was used to categorize 534 NACs in Melbourne, Australia by their built environment features. The NACS were linked to eligible Victorian Integrated Survey of Travel Activity 2009-2010 (VISTA) survey participants (n=19,984). Adjusted multilevel logistic regressions estimated associations between each cluster typology and two outcomes of daily walking: any transport walking; and, any 'neighbourhood' transport walking. Distance between residential dwellings and closest NAC was assessed to evaluate compliance with local planning policy on supermarket locations. Results: Metrics for 19 built environment features were estimated and three NAC clusters associated with walkability were identified. NACs with significantly higher street connectivity (mean:161, SD:20), destination diversity (mean:16, SD:0.4); and net residential density (mean:77, SD:65) were interpreted as being 'highly walkable' when compared with 'low walkable' NACs, which had lower street connectivity (mean:57, SD:15); destination diversity (mean:11, SD:3); and net residential density (mean:10, SD:3). The odds of any daily transport walking was 5.85 times higher (95% CI: 4.22, 8.11), and for any 'neighborhood' transport walking 8.66 (95% CI: 5.89, 12.72) times higher, for residents whose closest NAC was highly walkable compared with those living near low walkabl
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