175 research outputs found
Non-linear statistical downscaling of present and LGM precipitation and temperatures over Europe
International audienceLocal-scale climate information is increasingly needed for the study of past, present and future climate changes. In this study we develop a non-linear statistical downscaling method to generate local temperatures and precipitation values from large-scale variables of a Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity (here CLIMBER). Our statistical downscaling scheme is based on the concept of Generalized Additive Models (GAMs), capturing non-linearities via non-parametric techniques. Our GAMs are calibrated on the present Western Europe climate. For this region, annual GAMs (i.e. models based on 12 monthly values per location) are fitted by combining two types of large-scale explanatory variables: geographical (e.g. topographical information) and physical (i.e. entirely simulated by the CLIMBER model). To evaluate the adequacy of the non-linear transfer functions fitted on the present Western European climate, they are applied to different spatial and temporal large-scale conditions. Local projections for present North America and Northern Europe climates are obtained and compared to local observations. This partially addresses the issue of spatial robustness of our transfer functions by answering the question "does our statistical model remain valid when applied to large-scale climate conditions from a region different from the one used for calibration?". To asses their temporal performances, local projections for the Last Glacial Maximum period are derived and compared to local reconstructions and General Circulation Model outputs. Our downscaling methodology performs adequately for the Western Europe climate. Concerning the spatial and temporal evaluations, it does not behave as well for Northern America and Northern Europe climates because the calibration domain may be too different from the targeted regions. The physical explanatory variables alone are not capable of downscaling realistic values. However, the inclusion of geographical-type variables – such as altitude, advective continentality and moutains effect on wind (W–slope) – as GAM explanatory variables clearly improves our local projections
Dysregulated Proinflammatory and Fibrogenic Phenotype of Fibroblasts in Cystic Fibrosis
Morbi-mortality in cystic fibrosis (CF) is mainly related to chronic lung infection and inflammation, uncontrolled tissue rearrangements and fibrosis, and yet the underlying mechanisms remain largely unknown. We evaluated inflammatory and fibrosis responses to bleomycin in F508del homozygous and wild-type mice, and phenotype of fibroblasts explanted from mouse lungs and skin. The effect of vardenafil, a cGMP-specific phosphodiesterase type 5 inhibitor, was tested in vivo and in culture. Responses of proinflammatory and fibrotic markers to bleomycin were enhanced in lungs and skin of CF mice and were prevented by treatment with vardenafil. Purified lung and skin fibroblasts from CF mice proliferated and differentiated into myofibroblasts more prominently and displayed higher sensitivity to growth factors than those recovered from wild-type littermates. Under inflammatory stimulation, mRNA and protein expression of proinflammatory mediators were higher in CF than in wild-type fibroblasts, in which CFTR expression reached similar levels to those observed in other non-epithelial cells, such as macrophages. Increased proinflammatory responses in CF fibroblasts were reduced by half with submicromolar concentrations of vardenafil. Proinflammatory and fibrogenic functions of fibroblasts are upregulated in CF and are reduced by vardenafil. This study provides compelling new support for targeting cGMP signaling pathway in CF pharmacotherapy
Deliverable D4/5: Global climatic characteristics, including vegetation and seasonal cycles over Europe, for snapshots over the next 200,000 years. Work Package 2, Simulation of the future evolution of the biosphere system using the hierarchical strategy. Modelling Sequential Biosphere Systems under Climate Change for Radioactive Waste Disposal (BIOCLIM)
The aim of the BIOCLIM project is to develop and
present techniques that can be used to develop
self-consistent patterns of possible future
climate changes over the next million years (climate
scenarios), and to demonstrate how these climate
scenarios can be used in assessments of the long-term
safety of nuclear waste repository sites.
Within the project, two strategies are implemented to
predict climate change. The first is the hierarchical
strategy, in which a hierarchy of climate models is used
to investigate the evolution of climate over the period of
interest. These models vary from very simple 2-D and
threshold models, which simulate interactions between
only a few aspects of the earth system, through general
circulation models (GCMs) and vegetation models,
which simulate in great detail the dynamics and physics
of the atmosphere, ocean, and biosphere, to regional
models, which focus in particular on the European
region and the specific areas of interest. The second
strategy is the integrated strategy, in which
intermediate complexity climate models are developed,
and used to consecutively simulate the development of
the earth system over many millennia. Although these
models are relatively simple compared to a GCM, they
are more advanced than 2D models, and do include
physical descriptions of the biosphere, cryosphere,
atmosphere and ocean.
This deliverable, D4/5, focuses on the hierarchical
strategy, and in particular the GCM and vegetation
model simulation of possible future climates.
Deliverable D3 documented the first step in this
strategy. The Louvain-la-Neuve 2-D climate model
(LLN-2D) was used to estimate (among other variables)
annual mean temperatures and ice volume in the
Northern Hemisphere over the next 1 million years.
It was driven by the calculated evolution of orbital
parameters, and plausible scenarios of CO2
concentration. From the results, 3 future time periods
within the next 200,000 years were identified as being
extreme, that is either significantly warmer or cooler
than the present. The next stage in the hierarchical
strategy was to use a GCM and biosphere model, to
simulate in more detail these extreme time periods
Deliverable D8a: Development of the rule-based downscaling methodology for BIOCLIM Workpackage 3. Work Package 3, Simulation of the future evolution of the biosphere system using the hierarchical strategy. Modelling Sequential Biosphere Systems under Climate Change for Radioactive Waste Disposal (BIOCLIM)
One of the tasks of BIOCLIM WP3 was to develop
a rule-based approach for downscaling from the
MoBidiC model of intermediate complexity (see
Ref.1) in order to provide consistent estimates of
monthly temperature and precipitation for the specific
regions of interest to BIOCLIM (Central Spain, Central
England and Northeast France, together with Germany
and the Czech Republic). Such an approach has been
developed and used in a previous study funded by Nirex
to downscale output from an earlier version of this
climate model covering the Northern Hemisphere only,
LLN 2-D NH, to Central England, and evaluated using
palaeoclimate proxy data and General Circulation
Model (GCM) output for this region. This previous study
[Ref.2] provides the starting point for the BIOCLIM
work.
A statistical downscaling methodology has been
developed by Philippe Marbaix of CEA/LSCE for use
with the second climate model of intermediate
complexity used in BIOCLIM – CLIMBER-GREMLINS
(see Ref.1). This statistical methodology is described
in Deliverable D8b [Ref.3]. Inter-comparisons of all the
downscaling methodologies used in BIOCLIM (including
the dynamical methods applied in WP2 – see Ref.4 and
Ref.5) are discussed in Deliverable D10-12 [Ref.6].
The rule-based methodology assigns climate states or
classes to a point on the time continuum of a region
according to a combination of simple threshold
values which can be determined from the coarse
scale climate model. Once climate states or classes
have been defined, monthly temperature and
precipitation climatologies are constructed using
analogue stations identified from a data base of
present-day climate observations. The most appropriate
climate classification for BIOCLIM purposes is the
Køppen/Trewartha scheme (Ref.7 ; see Appendix 1).
This scheme has the advantage of being empirical, but
only requires monthly averages of temperature and
precipitation as input variables
Deliverable D6a: Regional climatic characteristics for the European sites at specific times: the dynamical downscaling. Work Package 2, Simulation of the future evolution of the biosphere system using the hierarchical strategy. Modelling Sequential Biosphere Systems under Climate Change for Radioactive Waste Disposal (BIOCLIM)
The overall aim of BIOCLIM is to assess the
possible long-term impacts due to climate
change on the safety of radioactive waste
repositories in deep formations. This aim is addressed
through the following specific objectives:
• Development of practical and innovative strategies for
representing sequential climatic changes to the
geosphere-biosphere system for existing sites over
central Europe, addressing the timescale of one
million years, which is relevant to the geological
disposal of radioactive waste.
• Exploration and evaluation of the potential effects of
climate change on the nature of the biosphere
systems used to assess the environmental impact.
• Dissemination of information on the new
methodologies and the results obtained from the
project among the international waste management
community for use in performance assessments of
potential or planned radioactive waste repositories.
The BIOCLIM project is designed to advance the
state-of-the-art of biosphere modelling for use in
Performance Assessments. Therefore, two strategies
are developed for representing sequential climatic
changes to geosphere-biosphere systems. The
hierarchical strategy successively uses a hierarchy of
climate models. These models vary from simple 2-D
models, which simulate interactions between a few
aspects of the Earth system at a rough surface
resolution, through General Circulation Model (GCM)
and vegetation model, which simulate in great detail the
dynamics and physics of the atmosphere, ocean and
biosphere, to regional models, which focus on the
European regions and sites of interest. Moreover,
rule-based and statistical downscaling procedures are
also considered. Comparisons are provided in terms of
climate and vegetation cover at the selected times and
for the study regions. The integrated strategy consists
of using integrated climate models, representing all
the physical mechanisms important for long-term
continuous climate variations, to simulate the climate
evolution over many millennia. These results are then
interpreted in terms of regional climatic changes using
rule-based and statistical downscaling approaches.
This deliverable, D6a, focuses on the hierarchical
strategy, and in particular the MAR simulations.
According to the hierarchical strategy developed in
the BIOCLIM project to predict future climate, six
BIOCLIM experiments were run with the MAR model. In
addition to these experiments a baseline experiment,
presenting the present-day climate simulated by MAR,
was also undertaken. In the first step of the hierarchical
strategy the LLN 2-D NH climate model simulated
the gross features of the climate of the next 1 Myr
[Ref.1]. Six snapshot experiments were selected from
these results. In a second step a GCM and a biosphere
model were used to simulate in more detail the climate
of the selected time periods. These simulations were
performed on a global scale [Ref.1]. The third step of
the procedure is to derive the regional features of the
climate at the same time periods. Therefore the results
of the GCM are used as boundary conditions to force
the regional climate model (MAR) for the six selected
periods and the baseline simulation. The control
simulation (baseline) corresponds to the regional
climate simulated under present-day conditions, both
insolation forcing and atmospheric CO2 concentration.
All the BIOCLIM simulations are compared to that
baseline simulation. In addition, other comparisons will
also be presented. Tableau 1 summarises the
characteristics of these BIOCLIM experiments already
presented in [Ref.1] and [Ref.2]
Deliverable D7: Continuous climate evolution scenarios over western Europe (1000 km) scale. Work Package 2, Simulation of the future evolution of the biosphere system using the hierarchical strategy. Modelling Sequential Biosphere Systems under Climate Change for Radioactive Waste Disposal (BIOCLIM)
The overall aim of BIOCLIM is to assess the
possible long term impacts due to climate
change on the safety of radioactive waste
repositories in deep formations. This aim is addressed
through the following specific objectives:
• Development of practical and innovative strategies
for representing sequential climatic changes to the
geosphere-biosphere system for existing sites over
central Europe, addressing the timescale of one
million years, which is relevant to the geological
disposal of radioactive waste.
• Exploration and evaluation of the potential effects of
climate change on the nature of the biosphere
systems used to assess the environmental impact.
• Dissemination of information on the new
methodologies and the results obtained from the
project among the international waste management
community for use in performance assessments of
potential or planned radioactive waste repositories.
A key point of the project is therefore to develop
strategies for representing sequential long-term
climatic changes by addressing time scales of
relevance to geological disposal of solid radioactive
wastes. The integrated strategy, which first step is
described in this deliverable (D7), consists of building
an integrated, dynamic climate model, to represent all
the known important mechanisms for long term
climatic variations. The time-dependent results will then
be interpreted in terms of regional climate using rulebased
and statistical downscaling approaches.
Therefore, the continuous simulation of the climate
evolution of the next 200 000 years selected for study
is a major objective of the BIOCLIM project. This
requires models that account for the simultaneous
evolution of the atmosphere, biosphere, land-ice and
the ocean. To be able to perform several 200 000-yearlong
transient climate simulations, the models have to
include all these components, but also need to be
simple enough to run fast. Therefore, climate models of
intermediate complexity have been chosen to complete
this part of the BIOCLIM project.
In the present deliverable, we report on the results
of two such models, MoBidiC (Louvain-la-Neuve) and
CLIMBER-GREMLINS (LSCE). The overall objective of
the work presented here is the simulation of the climate
of the next 200 000 years for three different CO2
scenarios [Ref.1]. However, both models used for
this work have been either modified for the project
(MoBidiC) or developed within the project (CLIMBERGREMLINS).
Therefore their performance, and the
modifications and developments needed to be
documented, especially as far as their ability to
reproduce past and different climates is concerned.
Therefore, a large section of the present deliverable is
devoted to the evaluation of the models through past
climate simulations.
The deliverable is structured as follows: first, a brief
description of the models is given. In the second
section, results from the models for past climate
situations are presented. The third section deals with
the future climate simulations devised for the BIOCLIM
project: for each CO2 scenario, the results of the two
models are compared.
It is emphasized that the model results, especially
those for CLIMBER-GREMLINS, should be regarded as
illustrations of possibilities rather than absolute
predictions of climate evolution. The novel approach to
long-term climate change adopted in BIOCLIM is based
on research tools under continuing development,
notably, the CLIMBER-GREMLINS model
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