Asteroid astrometric and photometric studies using Markov-chain Monte Carlo methods

Planetary Science belongs to the so-called fundamental sciences, which do not have to have immediate practical applications or implications. The recent decades have however shown that the study of asteroids may have direct implications on our life. Studies of asteroid dynamics have shown that some of those objects can collide with the Earth. Studies of asteroid mineralogy suggest that some of them contain minerals and elements important for industry. For both of those topics, determining physical and dynamical properties is crucial. Markov-chain Monte Carlo methods and algorithms such as the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm are growing in popularity and becoming important tools in deriving model parameters in many branches of science today. In this thesis, Bayesian statistics along with the above-mentioned numerical methods have been used to infer dynamical and physical properties of asteroids. First, a new Markov-chain Monte Carlo ranging method is developed for computing asteroid orbits. The method is applicable for asteroids with short observational time intervals and/or small number of observations. The method is particularly useful in deriving orbits for new asteroid discoveries and computing collision probabilities for such objects. The Markov-chain Monte Carlo ranging method is applied to a number of asteroids including a recent Earth impactor - asteroid 2008 TC3. Markov-chain Monte Carlo ranging is available through the open-source orbit-computation package called OpenOrb and is implemented into the Gaia satellite data processing pipeline, where it will be heavily used in the daily data processing. Second, Markov-chain Monte Carlo and Monte Carlo methods are used to assess phase curve photometric parameters and their uncertainties. Absolute magnitudes and photometric parameters are derived for half a million asteroids by fitting phase curves to the Lowell Observatory photometric database. Asteroid phase curves depend on physical properties of regolith and absolute magnitudes are useful in computing sizes and albedos. Fitting the phase functions to a large number of asteroid families suggests homogeneity of photometric parameters in asteroid families. The derived photometric parameters are also found to correspond to asteroid taxonomic complexes and colors

Differentiation signatures in the Flora region

Most asteroid families are very homogeneous in physical properties. Some show greater diversity, however. The Flora family is the most intriguing of them. The Flora family is spread widely in the inner main belt, has a rich collisional history, and is one of the most taxonomically diverse regions in the main belt. As a result of its proximity to the asteroid (4) Vesta (the only currently known intact differentiated asteroid) and its family, migration between the two regions is possible. This dynamical path is one of the counter arguments to the hypothesis that there may be traces of a differentiated parent body other than Vesta in the inner main belt region. We here investigate the possibility that some of the V- and A- types (commonly interpreted as basaltoids and dunites - parts of the mantle and crust of differentiated parent bodies) in the Flora dynamical region are not dynamically connected to Vesta.Comment: accepted to AA (28 09 2015

Dynamical evolution of basaltic asteroids outside the Vesta family in the inner main belt

Basaltic V-type asteroids are leftovers from the formation and evolution of differentiated planetesimals. They are thought to originate from mantles and crusts of multiple different parent bodies. Identifying the links between individual V-type asteroids and multiple planetesimals is challenging, especially in the inner part of the main asteroid belt, where the majority of V-type asteroids are expected to have originated from a single planetesimal, namely, (4) Vesta. In this work, we aim to trace the origin of a number of individual V-type asteroids from the inner part of the main asteroid belt. The main goal is to identify asteroids that may not be traced back to (4) Vesta and may therefore originate from other differentiated planetesimals. We performed a 2 Gy backward numerical integration of the orbits of the selected V-type asteroids. For each asteroid, we used 1001 clones to map the effect of orbital uncertainties. In the integration, we use information on physical properties of the considered V-type asteroids such as pole orientation, rotational period, and thermal parameters. The majority of V-types in the inner main belt outside the Vesta family are clearly Vesta fugitives. Two objects, namely, (3307) Athabasca and (17028) 1999 FJ$_{5}$, show no clear dynamical link to (4) Vesta. Together with (809) Lundia (from our previous work), these objects could represent the parent bodies of anomalous HED meteorites such as the Banbura Rockhole. Furthermore, some objects of the low-inclination population cannot be traced back to (4) Vesta within the 2 Gy integration

Distribution of spin-axes longitudes and shape elongations of main-belt asteroids

Context: Large all-sky surveys provide us with a lot of photometric data that are sparse in time (typically few measurements per night) and can be potentially used for the determination of shapes and rotational states of asteroids. The method which is generally used to derive these parameters is the lightcurve inversion. However, for most asteroids their sparse data are not accurate enough to derive a unique model and the lightcurve inversion method is thus not very efficient. Aims: To fully utilize photometry sparse in time, we developed a new simplified model and applied it on the data from the Lowell photometric database. Our aim was to derive spin axis orientations and shape elongations of asteroids and to reconstruct distributions of these parameters for selected subpopulations to find if there are some differences. Methods: We model asteroids as geometrically scattering triaxial ellipsoids. Observed values of mean brightness and the dispersion of brightness are compared with computed values obtained from the parameters of the model -- ecliptical longitude $\lambda$ and latitude $\beta$ of the pole and the ratios $a/b$, $b/c$ of axes of the ellipsoid. These parameters are optimized to get the best agreement with the observation. Results: We found that the distribution of $\lambda$ for main-belt asteroids is not uniform (in agreement with findings of Bowell et al., 2014, M&PS, 49, 95) and is dependent on the inclination of orbit. Surprisingly, the non-uniformity of $\lambda$ distribution is larger for asteroids residing on low-inclination orbits. We also studied distributions of $a/b$ for several groups of asteroids and found that small asteroids ($D<25\,$km) are on average more elongated than large ones.Comment: 10 pages; Accepted for publication in A&

Editorial: Asteroid modeling: Processing and combining diverse datasets

Non peer reviewe

Observations of "Fresh" and Weathered Surfaces on Asteroid Pairs and Their Implications on the Rotational-Fission Mechanism

The rotational-fission of a rubble-pile asteroid can result in an "asteroid pair", two un-bound asteroids sharing similar orbits. This mechanism might exposes material that previously had never have been exposed to the weathering conditions of space. Therefore, the surfaces of asteroid pairs offer the opportunity to observe non-weathered fresh spectra. We report near-IR spectroscopic observations of 31 asteroids in pairs. We analyze their spectral slopes, 1 {\mu}m absorption band, taxonomy, and estimate the time elapsed since their separation. Analyzing the 19 S-complex objects in our sample, we find two fresh Q-type asteroids that are the first of their kind to be observed in the main-belt over the full visible and near-IR range. This solidly demonstrates that Q-type objects are not limited to the NEA population. The pairs in our sample present a range of fresh and weathered surfaces with no clear evidence for a correlation with the ages of the pairs. However, our sample includes old pairs (1 to 2 My) that present low spectral slopes. This illustrates a timescale of at least ~2 My before an object develops high spectral slope that is typical for S-type asteroids. We discuss mechanisms that explain the existence of weathered pairs with young dynamical ages and find that the "secondary fission" model (Jacobson & Scheeres 2011) is the most robust with our observations since: 1) the secondary members in our sample present fresh parameters that tend to be fresher than their weathered primaries; 2) most of the fresh pairs in our sample have low size ratios between the secondary and the primary; 3) 33% of the primaries in our sample are fresh, similar to the prediction set by this model; 4) known satellites orbit two of the pairs in our sample with low size ratio and fresh surface; 5) there is no correlation between the weathering state and the primary shape as predicted by other models.Comment: 19 pages, 17 figures, 4 tables. Accepted to Icaru

Comparison of machine learning algorithms used to classify the asteroids observed by all-sky surveys

Context. Multifilter photometry from large sky surveys is commonly used to assign asteroid taxonomic types and study various problems in planetary science. To maximize the science output of those surveys, it is important to use methods that best link the spectro-photometric measurements to asteroid taxonomy. Aims. We aim to determine which machine learning methods are the most suitable for the taxonomic classification for various sky surveys. Methods. We utilized five machine learning supervised classifiers: logistic regression, naive Bayes, support vector machines (SVMs), gradient boosting, and MultiLayer Perceptrons (MLPs). Those methods were found to reproduce the Bus-DeMeo taxonomy at various rates depending on the set of filters used by each survey. We report several evaluation metrics for a comprehensive comparison (prediction accuracy, balanced accuracy, F1 score, and the Matthews correlation coefficient) for 11 surveys and space missions. Results. Among the methods analyzed, multilayer perception and gradient boosting achieved the highest accuracy and naive Bayes achieved the lowest accuracy in taxonomic prediction across all surveys. We found that selecting the right machine learning algorithm can improve the success rate by a factor of >2. The best balanced accuracy (similar to 85% for a taxonomic type prediction) was found for the Visible and Infrared Survey telescope for Astronomy (VISTA) and the ESA Euclid mission surveys where broadband filters best map the 1 mu m and 2 mu m olivine and pyroxene absorption bands. Conclusions. To achieve the highest accuracy in the taxonomic type prediction based on multifilter photometric measurements, we recommend the use of gradient boosting and MLP optimized for each survey. This can improve the overall success rate even when compared with naive Bayes. A merger of different datasets can further boost the prediction accuracy. For the combination of the Legacy Survey of Space and Time and VISTA survey, we achieved 90% for the taxonomic type prediction.Peer reviewe

Asteroids seen by JWST-MIRI: Radiometric size, distance, and orbit constraints

Infrared measurements of asteroids are crucial for the determination of physical and thermal properties of individual objects, and for understanding the small-body populations in the solar system as a whole. However, standard radiometric methods can only be applied if the orbit of an object is known, hence its position at the time of the observation. With JWST-MIRI observations the situation will change and many unknown, often very small, solar system objects will be detected. Later orbit determinations are difficult due to the faintness of the objects and the lack of dedicated follow-up concepts. We present MIRI observations of the outer-belt asteroid (10920) 1998 BC1 and an unknown object, detected in all nine MIRI bands in close apparent proximity to (10920). We developed a new method called STM-ORBIT to interpret the multi-band measurements without knowing the object’s true location. The power of the new technique is that it determines the most-likely heliocentric and observer-centric distance and phase angle ranges, allowing us to make a radiometric size estimate. The application to the MIRI fluxes of (10920) was used to validate the method. It leads to a confirmation of the known radiometric size-albedo solution, and puts constraints on the asteroid’s location and orbit in agreement with its true orbit. To back up the validation of the method, we obtained additional ground-based light curve observations of (10920), combined with Gaia data, which indicate a very elongated object (a/b ≥ 1.5), with a spin-pole at (λ, β)ecl = (178°, +81°), with an estimated error of about 20°, and a rotation period of 4.861191 ± 0.000015 h. A thermophysical study of all available JWST-MIRI and WISE measurements leads to a size of 14.5–16.5 km (diameter of an equal-volume sphere), a geometric albedo pV between 0.05 and 0.10, and a thermal inertia in the range 9–35 (best value 15) J m−2 s−0.5 K−1. For the newly discovered MIRI object, the STM-ORBIT method revealed a size of 100–230 m. The new asteroid must be on a low-inclination orbit (0.7° < i < 2.0°) and it was located in the inner main-belt region during JWST observations. A beaming parameter η larger than 1.0 would push the size even below 100 meters, a main-belt regime that has escaped IR detections so far. This kind of MIRI observations can therefore contribute to formation and evolution studies via classical size-frequency studies, which are currently limited to objects larger than about one kilometer in size. We estimate that MIRI frames with pointings close to the ecliptic and short integration times of only a few seconds will always include a few asteroids; most of them will be unknown objects.TSR acknowledges funding from the NEO-MAPP project (H2020-EU-2-1-6/870377). This work was (partially) funded by the Spanish MICIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 and by “ERDF A way of making Europe” by the European Union through grant RTI2018-095076-B-C21, and the Institute of Cosmos Sciences University of Barcelona (ICCUB, Unidad de Excelencia ‘María de Maeztu’) through grant CEX2019-000918-M. PPB acknowledges funding through the Spanish Government retraining plan ‘María Zambrano 2021-2023’ at the University of Alicante (ZAMBRANO22-04)

Asteroid taxonomic signatures from photometric phase curves

We explore the correlation between an asteroid's taxonomy and photometric phase curve using the H, G12 photometric phase function, with the shape of the phase function described by the single parameter G12. We explore the usability of G12 in taxonomic classification for individual objects, asteroid families, and dynamical groups. We conclude that the mean values of G12 for the considered taxonomic complexes are statistically different, and also discuss the overall shape of the G12 distribution for each taxonomic complex. Based on the values of G12 for about half a million asteroids, we compute the probabilities of C, S, and X complex membership for each asteroid. For an individual asteroid, these probabilities are rather evenly distributed over all of the complexes, thus preventing meaningful classification. We then present and discuss the G12 distributions for asteroid families, and predict the taxonomic complex preponderance for asteroid families given the distribution of G12 in each family. For certain asteroid families, the probabilistic prediction of taxonomic complex preponderance can clearly be made. The Nysa-Polana family shows two distinct regions in the proper element space with different G12 values dominating in each region. We conclude that the G12-based probabilistic distribution of taxonomic complexes through the main belt agrees with the general view of C complex asteroid proportion increasing towards the outer belt. We conclude that the G12 photometric parameter cannot be used in determining taxonomic complex for individual asteroids, but it can be utilized in the statistical treatment of asteroid families and different regions of the main asteroid belt.Comment: submitted to Icaru

Kharkiv database of asteroid absolute magnitudes : Comparative analysis with other datasets

We present a database of the absolute magnitudes of asteroids named the Kharkiv Asteroid Absolute Magnitude Database (KhAAMD). The database includes a homogeneous set of the absolute magnitudes for about 400 asteroids in the new HG(1)G(2) magnitude system. We performed a comparative analysis of the asteroid absolute magnitudes between the Kharkiv database and other main magnitude databases (MPC, Pan-STARRS, ATLAS, PTF, and Gaia). We show that the Pan-STARRS absolute magnitude dataset has no systematic deviations and is the most suitable for the determination of diameters and albedos of asteroids. For the MPC dataset, there is a linear trend of overestimating the absolute magnitudes of bright objects and underestimating the magnitudes of faint asteroids. The ATLAS dataset has both a systematic overestimation of asteroid magnitudes and a linear trend. We propose equations that can be used to correct for systematic errors in the MPC and the ATLAS magnitude datasets. There are possible systematic deviations of about 0.1 mag for the Gaia and PTF databases but there are insufficient data overlapping with our data for a definitive analysis.Peer reviewe