How complete should be the landslide inventory to generate a reliable landslide susceptibility model?

Historical landslide inventory maps are frequently incomplete and this is usually pointed out as a source of uncertainty affecting the predictive ability of data-driven landslide susceptibility models. Nevertheless, the concept of having a complete landslide inventory seems far from reaching a consensual definition, both from the theoretical and practical point of view. Landslide mapping over time depends on a wide range of factors, some of them as simple as the ambitious capability to regionally map all the landslide features/signatures, detectable by fieldwork or image interpretation, which are often lost in a short period due to erosion or man intervention, which erase the morphological signs of instability. Within this framework, the main goal of the present work is to assess to what extent a presumed complete shallow slides inventory map is necessary to consistently assess the susceptibility to shallow slides in a certain area. The working hypothesis is tested in the Grande da Pipa river (GPR) basin, which extends for 110 square kilometers in the north of Lisbon region, Portugal. To assess susceptibility to shallow slides occurrence, we apply a bivariate statistical method (the Information Value), using an inventory containing more than 500 shallow slides ranging in size from 10 to 8000 square meters; and a dataset of eight terrain predisposing factors (lithology, slope, aspect, plan curvature, slope area ratio, topographic position index, soil type and land use), supported by automated R routines. In a first moment, the modelling strategy encompasses the creation of three independent blocks of landslide cases to be used for training (70 % of the landslides) and validation (30 % of the landslides) based on a random partition of the shallow slides inventory. In a second phase, each training group, for the different blocks, is randomly split in 14 new landslide sample groups, through a progressive increment of 5 % in the number of landslide cases included, from sample group 1 (with only 5 % of the total landslides) to sample group 14 (with 70 % of the total landslides), to obtain the shallow slides susceptibility scores. The validation of each of the 14 susceptibility map, from the different blocks, is done independently with the validation group of shallow slides (30 %) previously set aside and not used for susceptibility modelling. To accomplish that, we graphically compute prediction rate curves and calculate the respective area under the curve.N/

In-season internal and external training load quantification of an elite European soccer team

Elite soccer teams that participate in European competitions need to have players in the best physical and psychological status possible to play matches. As a consequence of congestive schedule, controlling the training load (TL) and thus the level of effort and fatigue of players to reach higher performances during the matches is therefore critical. Therefore, the aim of the current study was to provide the first report of seasonal internal and external training load that included Hooper Index (HI) scores in elite soccer players during an in-season period. Nineteen elite soccer players were sampled, using global position system to collect total distance, high-speed distance (HSD) and average speed (AvS). It was also collected session rating of perceived exertion (s-RPE) and HI scores during the daily training sessions throughout the 2015-2016 in-season period. Data were analysed across ten mesocycles (M: 1 to 10) and collected according to the number of days prior to a one-match week. Total daily distance covered was higher at the start (M1 and M3) compared to the final mesocycle (M10) of the season. M1 (5589m) reached a greater distance than M5 (4473m) (ES = 9.33 [12.70, 5.95]) and M10 (4545m) (ES = 9.84 [13.39, 6.29]). M3 (5691m) reached a greater distance than M5 (ES = 9.07 [12.36, 5.78]), M7 (ES = 6.13 [8.48, 3.79]) and M10 (ES = 9.37 [12.76, 5.98]). High-speed running distance was greater in M1 (227m), than M5 (92m) (ES = 27.95 [37.68, 18.22]) and M10 (138m) (ES = 8.46 [11.55, 5.37]). Interestingly, the s-RPE response was higher in M1 (331au) in comparison to the last mesocycle (M10, 239au). HI showed minor variations across mesocycles and in days prior to the match. Every day prior to a match, all internal and external TL variables expressed significant lower values to other days prior to a match (p<0.01). In general, there were no differences between player positions. Conclusions: Our results reveal that despite the existence of some significant differences between mesocycles, there were minor changes across the in-season period for the internal and external TL variables used. Furthermore, it was observed that MD-1 presented a reduction of external TL (regardless of mesocycle) while internal TL variables did not have the same record during in-season match-day-minus.: The authors state that there were no salaries’ fund from a tobacco company. Also, the authors are not aware of any competing interests. This project was supported by the National Funds through FCT—Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (UID/DTP/04045/2013)—and the European Fund for Regional Development (FEDER) allocated by European Union through the COMPETE 2020 Programme (POCI-01-0145- FEDER-006969)—competitiveness and internationalization (POCI). All funding received for this work from any of the following organizations: National Institutes of Health (NIH); Welcome Trust; Howard Hughes Medical Institute (HHMI). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

In-season training load quantification of one-, two- and three-game week schedules in a top European professional soccer team

Top European soccer teams that play in UEFA competitions often participate in one, two- or three-games per week. Therefore, it is necessary to ensure optimal match-day performance and full recovery. The aim of this study was to quantify internal and external training load (TL) within five microcycles: M1 and M2 - one-game weeks; M3 and M4 - two-game weeks; M5 - three-game week). Thirteen elite soccer players participated in this study. A global positioning system (GPS) was used to measure the total distance covered and distances of different exercise training zones (1-5), the session ratings of perceived exertion (s-RPE) scores and the amount of creatine kinase (CK) created during daily training sessions for the 2015-2016 in-season period. The data were analysed with respect to the number of days prior to a given match. The main results indicate that there was a significant difference in training intensity for zone 1 between M2 and M4 (4010.2 ± 103.5 and 4507.6 ± 133.0 m, respectively); a significant difference in training intensity for zone 3 between M1 and M5 (686.1 ± 42.8 and 801.2 ± 61.2 m, respectively); a significant difference in the duration of the training sessions and matches between M2 and M5 (69.2 ± 2.1 and 79.6 ± 2.3) and M3 and M5 (69.7 ± 1.0 and 79.6 ± 2.3); and finally, there was a significant difference in CK between M3 and M2 (325.5 ± 155.0 and 194.4 ± 48.9). Moreover, there was a significant decrease in TL in the last day prior to a match, for all microcycles and all variables. There was no significant difference with respect to s-RPE. This study provides the first report of daily external and internal TLs and weekly accumulated load (training sessions and match demands) during one, two, and three-game week schedules in a group of elite soccer players. Expected significant differences are found in daily and accumulated loads for within- and between-game schedules. A similar pattern is exhibited for one- and two-game week microcycles regarding the day before the match, which exhibits a decrease in all variables. Despite the different number of games played per week, TL remain similar between microcycles for zone 2 and 5, plus s-RPE.This project was supported by the National Funds through FCT—Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (UID/DTP/04045/2013) and the European Fund for Regional Development (FEDER) allocated by European Union through the COMPETE 2020 Programme (POCI-01-0145-FEDER-006969)—competitiveness and internationalization (POCI). The authors disclose funding received for this work from any of the following organizations: National Institutes of Health (NIH); Welcome Trust; Howard Hughes Medical Institute (HHMI); and other(s).info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Validation of 3-day rainfall forecast at the regional scale

Nearly half of the natural disasters in the world are due to hydro-geomorphological hazards. Therefore, rainfall forecast is a key parameter for the implementation of landslides and flash-floods early warning systems. In this work we developed a routine in R software that enables the validation of a 3-day rainfall forecast by comparison with the daily rainfall data recorded in 101 automatic meteorological stations available in mainland Portugal. The routine integrates the pre-processing of base data, the matching between the 3-day rainfall forecast and the daily rainfall registered in the automatic meteorological stations based on sequence of days, the estimation of the difference between the forecasted and the real rainfall values and the computation of error measures, such as the bias, the mean absolute error, the mean absolute percentage error and the root mean square error. The results from the error measures, estimated for the 101 automatic meteorological stations, are then exported to an excel file. The routine is implemented for mainland Portugal and tested using data from February 2015, however, the spatial and temporal data can be easily updated for other regions

Validation of 3-day rainfall forecast at the regional scale

Nearly half of the natural disasters in the world are due to hydro-geomorphological hazards. Therefore, rainfall forecast is a key parameter for the implementation of landslides and flash-floods early warning systems. In this work we developed a routine in R software that enables the validation of a 3-day rainfall forecast by comparison with the daily rainfall data recorded in 101 automatic meteorological stations available in mainland Portugal. The routine integrates the pre-processing of base data, the matching between the 3-day rainfall forecast and the daily rainfall registered in the automatic meteorological stations based on sequence of days, the estimation of the difference between the forecasted and the real rainfall values and the computation of error measures, such as the bias, the mean absolute error, the mean absolute percentage error and the root mean square error. The results from the error measures, estimated for the 101 automatic meteorological stations, are then exported to an excel file. The routine is implemented for mainland Portugal and tested using data from February 2015, however, the spatial and temporal data can be easily updated for other regions. • A routine to validate the rainfall forecast at the regional scale using R programming language is implemented. • The automated routine can be easily updated and adapted with different spatial and temporal scales

Burnout: personal and work factors in volunteer and career firefighters

Purpose: Firefighters are daily confronted with adverse, unpredictable and demanding situations. It is a dangerous profession that puts firefighters at risk of developing burnout. Although the literature has already identified personal and work-related factors of burnout, the examination of specific factors explaining burnout among volunteer and career firefighters is still needed. The purpose of this study is to investigate the explaining role of personal and work-related factors on volunteer and career firefighters' burnout. Design/methodology/approach: A nonrandom convenience sample of 250 firefighters (67% volunteer; M-age = 31.88) completed a sociodemographic questionnaire, the Oldenburg Burnout Inventory, the Proactive Coping Scale and a standard of living subscale item. Hierarchical multiple linear regression models were tested. Fisher's criterion was considered, with p-values lower than 0.05 interpreted as statistically significant. Findings Personal and work-related factors accounted for 18% of volunteer and 31% of career firefighters' variations in burnout. Personal factors offered a greater contribution explaining volunteer and career firefighters' burnout. Still, variations in the role played by age, family responsibilities, proactive coping and satisfaction with standard of living on burnout were found among volunteer and career firefighters. Taking the work-related factors into account, working in rotative shifts constituted a risk factor for career firefighters' burnout. Research limitations/implications This study advances the understanding about the role of personal and work-related factors in volunteer and career firefighters' burnout. Originality/value: This study adds information about specific factors explaining burnout among voluntary and career firefighters. It deepens existing knowledge on variations in the role played by age, family responsibilities, work conditions, proactive coping and satisfaction with standard of living on the burnout of volunteer and career firefighters.info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersio