Understanding Stakeholder Synergies Through System Dynamics: Integrating Multi-Sectoral Stakeholder Narratives Into Quantitative Environmental Models

To reach the global aspiration of 17 ambitious SDGs, local realities must be integrated. Often, models are developed based on quantitative statistical data sources from databases on environmental indicators or economics to assess how a given SDG can be achieved. This process however removes the local realities from the equation. How can you best include stakeholders in this mathematical modelling processes distanced from their local realities, though, and ensure higher probability of future compliance with top-down global decisions that may have local consequences once implemented? When researching stakeholder involvement and their ability to form public policy, their opinions often get reported as a single assessment, like counting the fish in the ocean once and stating that as a permanent result. Too seldom do stakeholders get invited back and given the opportunity to validate results and allow researchers to adjust their models based on on-the-ground validation or change requests. We tested the full integration of stakeholders in the modelling process of environmental topics in six different case areas across Europe, with each area holding six sectoral and one inter-sectoral workshops. In these workshops, the scope of the issues relevant to the stakeholders was driven by first the sectoral priorities of the given sector, followed by a merging of issues. In this process, we were able to identify what the commonalities between different sectors were and where synergies lay in terms of governance paths. These results were then returned to the stakeholders in a mixed session where they were able to come with feedback and advice on the results researchers presented, so that the models reflected more closely the perceptions of the regional actors. We present these methods and reflect on the challenges and opportunities of using this deep-integration method to integrate qualitative data from stakeholder inclusion in a quantitative modelThe authors would like to acknowledge funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation programme under Grant Agreement N° 773782Peer reviewe

Understanding Stakeholder Synergies Through System Dynamics: Integrating Multi-Sectoral Stakeholder Narratives Into Quantitative Environmental Models

To reach the global aspiration of 17 ambitious SDGs, local realities must be integrated. Often, models are developed based on quantitative statistical data sources from databases on environmental indicators or economics to assess how a given SDG can be achieved. This process however removes the local realities from the equation. How can you best include stakeholders in this mathematical modelling processes distanced from their local realities, though, and ensure higher probability of future compliance with top-down global decisions that may have local consequences once implemented? When researching stakeholder involvement and their ability to form public policy, their opinions often get reported as a single assessment, like counting the fish in the ocean once and stating that as a permanent result. Too seldom do stakeholders get invited back and given the opportunity to validate results and allow researchers to adjust their models based on on-the-ground validation or change requests. We tested the full integration of stakeholders in the modelling process of environmental topics in six different case areas across Europe, with each area holding six sectoral and one inter-sectoral workshops. In these workshops, the scope of the issues relevant to the stakeholders was driven by first the sectoral priorities of the given sector, followed by a merging of issues. In this process, we were able to identify what the commonalities between different sectors were and where synergies lay in terms of governance paths. These results were then returned to the stakeholders in a mixed session where they were able to come with feedback and advice on the results researchers presented, so that the models reflected more closely the perceptions of the regional actors. We present these methods and reflect on the challenges and opportunities of using this deep-integration method to integrate qualitative data from stakeholder inclusion in a quantitative modelThe authors would like to acknowledge funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation programme under Grant Agreement N° 773782Peer reviewe

Sensitivity of river systems to human actions and climatic events across different environments: a Holocene perspective.

Bodemerosie, en het transport en de afzetting van sediment zijn in veel gematigde streken belangrijke geomorfologische processen tijdens het Hol oceen, en riviersystemen zorgen hierbij voor een essentiële link tussen continenten en oceanen voor het transport van sediment. Diverse studies van West- en Centraal-Europese rivierbekkens tonen de dominante invloed van landbedekking op de sedimentdynamiek, terwijl de rol van klimatologi sche variaties onduidelijk is. De meeste van deze studies leggen relatie s tussen deze variaties en de sedimentdynamiek op basis van synchronicit eit, en slechts enkele studies kwantificeren de veranderingen in sedimen tdynamiek of sedimentfluxen. In deze studie wordt de gevoeligheid van de sedimentdynamiek van contrasterende Belgische rivierbekkens (Dijle, Amb lève, Geul) voor Holocene milieuveranderingen, voornamelijk landgebruik en klimatologische variaties, geanalyseerd en gekwantificeerd. Hierbij g aat bijzondere aandacht uit naar de afzettingen in riviervalleien. Voor de drie studiegebieden zijn de afzettingen in de overstromingsvlakt es gekwantificeerd aan de hand van een uitgebreide dataset van boorgegev ens, en verschillende methodes om de overstromingsvlakte af te bakenen. Onzekerheden op deze berekeningen zijn vooral gerelateerd aan de methode van afbakening van de overstromingsvlakte, terwijl ca 7.5 boringen per km2 overstromingsvlakte een vergelijkbare nauwkeurigheid oplevert als gr otere boordatasets. De massa van de sedimenten in de overstromingsvlakte per bekkenoppervlakte varieert sterk per bekken met de hoogste waardes voor het Dijlebekken ( 0.4 Mt km-2), intermediaire waardes voor het Gulp bekken (een deelbekken van de Geul, 0.4 Mt km-2) en laagste waardes voor het Amblèvebekken (0.03 Mt km-2). Het patroon van de dikte van de afzet tingen binnen elk bekken kan verklaard worden door het gecombineerde eff ect van sedimenttoevoer naar het riviersysteem en de sediment transportc apaciteit van de overstromingsvlakte. De Holocene afzetting van de overstromingsvlaktes binnen het Amblève- en Geulbekken werden gedateerd aan de hand van tracer elementen. In het Di jlebekken werden 91 radiokoolstof (14C) dateringen en 11 OSL dateringen gebruikt om alluviale en colluviale afzetting te dateren. OSL dateringen bleken onbetrouwbaar door een onvolledige bleking. Verschillende method es werden gebruikt om de database van 14C-dateringen te analyseren: site -specifieke sedimentatiecurves, relatieve massa accumulatie curves en cu mulatieve waarschijnlijkheidscurves van gekalibreerde ouderdommen. De re sultaten voor het Dijlebekken tonen een sterke invloed van het menselijk e landgebruik op colluviale en alluviale sedimentafzetting sinds het Neo lithicum. Voor de twee andere bekkens tonen de resultaten aan dat de sed imentatiesnelheden voor de laatste 150 tot 700 jaar veel hoger liggen da n voor het volledige Holoceen, en ook dit kan verklaard worden door mens elijk landgebruik. Voor geen enkel bekken kon een invloed van klimaatsve randeringen worden vastgesteld, al kan dit gedeeltelijk te wijten zijn a an de dateringsresolutie. Een Holoceen tijd gedifferentieerd sedimentbudget werd opgesteld voor he t Dijlebekken. Helingsprocessen werden begroot met behulp van een method e die gebaseerd is op de erosie van een standaard bodemprofiel (soil pro file truncation method). Data van zes studiegebieden werden vervolgens g eëxtrapoleerd naar het hele bekken met behulp van de gemiddeldes per een heid (average per unit method) en morfometrische klassen. Het resulteren de sedimentbudget toont de temporele variaties in sedimentdynamiek en de wijzigende gevoeligheid van de verschillende componenten van het sedime ntbudget voor variaties in omgevingsfactoren. De introductie van landbou w zorgt voor een belangrijke stijging in bodemerosie, en 56% van het geë rodeerde sediment wordt afgezet als colluvium. De bodemerosiesnelheid pi ekt na 1000 CE, en tijdens deze periode word nog ongeveer 39% van het ge ërodeerde sediment afgezet als colluvium. Het Watem/Sedem model, een bodemerosie- en sedimenttransportmodel, werd gebruikt om de veranderingen in de sedimentdynamiek te modeleren. De mod eltoepassingen zijn gebaseerd op landschapsreconstructies en klimaatmode l gegevens voor verschillende tijdsperiodes, gecombineerd met een gevoel igheidsanalyse. De resultaten stemmen overeen met het tijd gedifferentie erde sedimentbudget. Ze tonen aan dat de sedimentdynamiek vooral gevoeli g is voor landgebruikveranderingen. Deze hebben een zestigvoudige stijgi ng in hedendaagse gemiddelde bodemerosiesnelheid veroorzaakt ten opzicht e van het vroeg Holoceen. Klimatologische variaties hebben een stijging van 6% in de erosiesnelheden veroorzaakt. De afname in akkerland en de s tijging in bebouwde oppervlakte in de laatste twee eeuwen heeft een afna me in gemiddelde bodemerosiesnelheid van 50% veroorzaakt. De resultaten tonen ook aan dat het relatieve belang van colluviale sedimentopslag het grootste is wanneer er weinig akkerland is in het bekken, terwijl deze colluviale opslag bijna ontbreekt onder een volledige bosbedekking. De mogelijkheden van LIDAR data voor geomorfologisch karteren en kwantit atieve berekeningen werd bestudeerd voor het Dijle- en Amblèvebekken. De resultaten tonen dat LIDAR data kunnen gebruikt worden voor de reconstr uctie van verlaten rivierkanalen, maar de mogelijkheden voor kwantitatie ve berekeningen zijn beperkt. Recente (1969-2008) veranderingen in de mo rfologie van het rivierkanaal van de Dijle en zijn zijloop de Laan werde n bestudeerd aan de hand topografische opmetingen. De resultaten tonen v oor beide rivieren een insnijding en verbreding van het kanaal aan, met als gevolg een toename van de natte dwarssectie van 25 tot 76% tussen de verschillende bestudeerde riviersecties. De veranderingen in kanaaldime nsies over de bestudeerde tijdsperiodes zorgen voor vergelijkbare volume s aan geërodeerd en afgezet materiaal als riviermeandering. Het hydrologisch STREAM model werd toegepast om de oppervlakkige wateraf voer te modeleren voor verschillende tijdsperiodes binnen het Holoceen. De resultaten tonen dat klimaatsveranderingen verantwoordelijk zijn voor kleine veranderingen n afvoer. De toename van akkerland en bebouwde opp ervlakte is dan weer verantwoordelijk voor een toename van 6% van de gem iddelde oppervlakkige waterafvoer. Deze afvoer is echter veel piekeriger geworden, zowel door landgebruikveranderingen (+147%) als door klimatol ogische variaties (+13%). Anders dan bij bodemerosie, heeft de toename i n bebouwde oppervlakte een verdere toename in deze piekafvoeren veroorza akt, hetgeen de waargenomen veranderingen in riviermorfologie kan verkla ren. De resultaten van dit onderzoek tonen aan dat de sedimentdynamiek van de bestudeerde bekkens tijdens het Holoceen vooral gevoelig is voor variat ies in landgebruik. Veldgegevens geven geen indicaties voor een invloed van klimatologische variaties, maar modelresultaten tonen dat deze laats te wel een kleine invloed hebben. Landschappen met veel akkerland zijn o ok veel gevoeliger voor klimaatsveranderingen dan natuurlijke landschapp en. Bovendien heeft landgebruik ook een belangrijke invloed op oppervlak kige waterafvoer, hetgeen veranderingen in de sedimentdynamiek van het r ivierkanaal veroorzaakt.status: publishe

Sensitivity of West and Central European river systems to environmental changes during the Holocene A review

Sediment deposition in floodplains is an essential part of the sediment dynamics of a catchment These sediment dynamics can vary largely on a Holocene time scale under the influence of driving forces such as land use and climatic variations In this paper we review the Holocene floodplain sediment deposition history of rivers in West and Central Europe with special attention to the influence of climate and land use variability During the early Holocene (Preboreal to Atlantic Period) most Roodplains were rather stable with limited floodplain aggradation After this initial phase of relative stability sedimentation rates increase during the Middle and Late Holocene with often the most important deposition phase during the last 1000 to 2000 a The start of the Increase in sedimentation vanes spatially with an earlier start in the west (France Germany) then in the east (Poland Belarus Ukraine) while there are also local differences between regions which are settled early (e g loess regions) compared to later settled regions The sedimentation history of most floodplains can be linked to the local land use history while influence of climatic variations on floodplain aggradation is often reported to be of minor importance Processes related to bedload are often reported to be more influenced by climatic events Relationships between the driving forces and the sediment history are mainly based on synchronicity and there is seldom proof for a direct causal relationship Future research should focus on a system based approach integrating the floodplain deposition in the entire sediment dynamics which includes also erosion colluvial deposition and export Main research questions that need further attention include integration of system-based concepts like landscape connectivity and buffering effects and also the assessment of the individual contribution of land use changes and climatologic variations on the sediment dynamics Detailed sediment budget studies combined with modeling studies can make an important contribution to the understanding of floodplain sediment dynamics (c) 2010 Elsevier B V All rights reservedstatus: publishe

Response of floodplain sedimentation to catchment disturbances in different environments

Holocene floodplain sediments are an important environmental archive, that can be accesed for reconstructing the past landscape dynamics either qualitatively (e.g. palynology) and quantitatively (e.g. sediment budgeting). In this study Holocene alluvial sediment deposition in two contrasting Belgian catchments was quantified and dated: the Lienne (148 km²) in the Ardennes massif and the Dijle (750 km2) in the loess region. These catchments experienced a comparable Holocene climatic variation, but differ in topography and geology with highest relief energy in the Lienne catchment. Land use history also differs with high land use intensities in the Dijle catchment since Roman times, but at least since the Middle Ages there were also large deforestations in the Lienne catchment. Detailed cumulative Holocene sediment deposition was assessed for each catchment using more then 1000 hand augerings. Detailed radiocarbon dating of fluvial deposits was performed in the Dijle catchment, while iron slag was used as a tracer for sediments deposited after 1350 AD in the Lienne catchment. Results show that sediment deposition is much larger in the Dijle catchment (~4.5 Mg ha-1 catchment area) then in the Lienne catchment (~0.2 Mg ha-1 catchment area). Dating results from the Dijle catchment show an increase of sediment deposition in the late Holocene, first starting in the colluvial valleys and later on prograding towards the main valleys. Variations in sedimentation rates can clearly be related to anthropogenous land use pressure, and the majority of the sediments found in colluvial and alluvial valleys were deposited in the last 4000 years, and in many cases even in the last 1000 years. Variations in sediment deposition within the catchment can partially be explained by differences in river valley physical settings (mainly valley slope), while in other cases hill slope sediment delivery (upstream erosion, connectivity between hill slopes and the river system) is the explaining factor. In the Lienne catchment, between 80 and 100% of the sediments present in the main valley were deposited before 1350AD, thus before the main period of forest clearance. On the other hand, about 50% of the Holocene sediment present in a main tributary was deposited after 1537 (local start of iron industry). This difference with the main valley can be explained by a difference in physical settings of the river (valley slope, stream power). These results show that the physical settings of river valleys determine how sensible the river systems are to catchment disturbances. Floodplain deposition is determined by an interplay of hill slope sediment delivery (hill slope erosion and connectivity) and physical settings of the valley itself (valley slope, discharge). As a result, quantification of floodplain deposition alone, cannot be used as a measure for historic soil erosion within a catchment or to determine intensity of human impact on the catchment

Fluctuation of sediment production during the last millennia in the Ardenne Massif (Belgium)

In the Ardenne massif, floodplains have recorded fluctuations in the production of sediment and several periods of increased sediment deposition have been identified. Before the first deforestations rivers developed multiple channels in alluvial forests. Floodplains were not well-developed and probably very humid, which explains the presence of peat layers within the alluvial sequences. In the Amblève catchment, the first increased sedimentary deposition of the Holocene occurred during the Bronze Age (3200 BP), in relation to deforestation and the first crop cultures in the area. An organic deposition has occurred around 2700 BP and could correspond with a period of climatic degradation. Several peat layers have also been dated to around 1000 BP and probably indicate very low anthropogenic pressure. From the 11th Century onwards, there was an increase in sedimentation and a greater concentration of charcoal is present in the alluvial deposits. In many catchments there is an important increase in the sedimentation at the end of the 14th century, which can be related to the development of many iron factories. Analyses of slag concentration produced in these former factories allow us to reconstruct the evolution of the floodplain topography since the inception of the iron industries, in relation to the periods of activity. Total sedimentation in the smaller valleys since the initiation of iron industries amounts 0.5 to 1.0 m, which is in most cases about 50% of the total sediment present in the floodplains and corresponds to a mean sedimentation rate ranging between 10 and 20 cm/century. Such values are explained by various former agricultural practices and forest clearings associated with the huge demand for charcoal by the iron industry. About 20 ha of forest were cleared for the yearly consumption of a refining forge or a blast furnace and more than three hundred iron factories existed in the Ardenne Massif between the 14th and the 19th century

Evolution of floodplain sedimentation during the last millennia in the Ardenne Massif (Belgium)

In the Ardenne massif, several periods of increased sediment deposition have been identified during the last millennia. They can be correlated to increasing anthropogenic land use pressure. The majority of the sediments found in floodplains were deposited in the last 4000 years, and in many cases even in the last 1000 years. In the Amblève catchment, the first increase in sediment deposition of the Holocene occurred during the Bronze Age (3200 BP), related to first deforestations and crop cultures in the area. Several organic depositions have occurred between 2700 BP and 1000 BP and probably indicate low anthropogenic pressures or more humid periods. From the 11th century onwards, there was an increase in sedimentation, and alluvial deposits contain more charcoal. A second important increase in sedimentation is observed in headwater catchments at the end of the 14th century, which can be related to the development of many iron factories. In the Ardenne massif, more than 300 iron factories existed between the 14th and the 19th century and about 20 ha of forest were cleared each year for the consumption of a refining forge or a blast furnace. Analysis of slag concentration produced in former factories and redistributed in the floodplain allows us to reconstruct the evolution of floodplains since the inception of the iron industries. The results show that not all floodplains in the Amblève catchment are equally sensitive to catchment disturbances. In the headwater stream (Chavanne river, 10-20 km²), about 80 cm of sediment has been deposited since the inception of the iron industries (towards 1540 AD). In the lower Lienne valley (100-150 km²), almost no sediment accumulation occurred in the floodplains after the beginning of iron melting (towards 1400 AD). This difference could be explained by the larger stream power of the Lienne river (100-120 W/m2 for Qb)

Holocene alluvial sediment deposition in contrasting environments in northwestern Europe

The total mass of Holocene alluvial sediment storage was estimated for three Belgian catchments (Dijle, Gulp and Amblève), with areas ranging between 47 and 1070 km2. The Dijle and Gulp catchments have comparable, rather intensive, land-use histories, while the land use in the Amblève catchment is less intensive and developed more recently. Topography is more pronounced in the Amblève catchment and more gentle in the Dijle catchment. In total, 1070 hand augerings were made to study fluvial deposition at 96 cross-sections across the flood plain. Average flood-plain deposition masses for the different catchments were calculated at different spatial scales. The results show that alluvial sediment storage is much higher for the Dijle catchment (464 103 Mg/km2 catchment area) compared to the Gulp (128 103 Mg/km2) and Amblève catchment (33 103 Mg/km2). Comparison with other data from West European catchments shows that alluvial sediment storage is much larger for the Dijle catchment, while that for the Amblève is very low. These differences between catchments can be attributed to their land-use history. Land use plays a role in both the soil erosion rates and in the sediment transport towards the fluvial system. Radiocarbon dating results for the Dijle flood plain indicate that major changes in land use are responsible for changing flood plain sedimentation.status: publishe