How well does Learning-by-doing Explain Cost Reductions in a Carbon-free Energy Technology?

The incorporation of experience curves has enhanced the treatment of technological change in models used to evaluate the cost of climate and energy policies. However, the set of activities that experience curves are assumed to capture is much broader than the set that can be characterized by learning-by-doing, the primary connection between experience curves and economic theory. How accurately do experience curves describe observed technological change? This study examines the case of photovoltaics (PV), a potentially important climate stabilization technology with robust technology dynamics. Empirical data are assembled to populate a simple engineering-based model identifying the most important factors affecting the cost of PV over the past three decades. The results indicate that learning from experience only weakly explains change in the most important cost-reducing factors— plant size, module efficiency, and the cost of silicon. They point to other explanatory variables to include in future models. Future work might also evaluate the potential for efficiency gains from policies that rely less on ‘riding down the learning curve’ and more on creating incentives for firms to make investments in the types of cost-reducing activities quantified in this study.Learning-by-doing, Experience Curves, Learning Curves, Climate Policy

The Future Costs of Nuclear Power Using Multiple Expert Elicitations: Effects of RD&D and Elicitation Design

Characterization of the anticipated performance of energy technologies to inform policy decisions increasingly relies on expert elicitation. Knowledge about how elicitation design factors impact the probabilistic estimates emerging from these studies is, however, scarce. We focus on nuclear power, a large-scale low-carbon power option, for which future cost estimates are important for the design of energy policies and climate change mitigation efforts. We use data from three elicitations in the USA and in Europe and assess the role of government research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) investments on expected nuclear costs in 2030. We show that controlling for expert, technology, and design characteristics increases experts' implied public RD&D elasticity of expected costs by 25%. Public sector and industry experts' cost expectations are 14% and 32% higher, respectively than academics. US experts are more optimistic than their EU counterparts, with median expected costs 22% lower. On average, a doubling of public RD&D is expected to result in an 8% cost reduction, but the uncertainty is large. The difference between the 90th and 10th percentile estimates is on average 58% of the experts' median estimates. Public RD&D investments do not affect uncertainty ranges, but US experts are less confident about costs than Europeans

Negative emissions-Part 3 : Innovation and upscaling

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Negative emissions-Part 2 : Costs, potentials and side effects

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Ten New Insights in Climate Science 2023/2024

Non-technical summary: We identify a set of essential recent advances in climate change research with high policy relevance, across natural and social sciences: (1) looming inevitability and implications of overshooting the 1.5°C warming limit, (2) urgent need for a rapid and managed fossil fuel phase-out, (3) challenges for scaling carbon dioxide removal, (4) uncertainties regarding the future contribution of natural carbon sinks, (5) intertwinedness of the crises of biodiversity loss and climate change, (6) compound events, (7) mountain glacier loss, (8) human immobility in the face of climate risks, (9) adaptation justice, and (10) just transitions in food systems. Technical summary The IPCC Assessment Reports offer the scientific foundation for international climate negotiations and constitute an unmatched resource for climate change researchers. However, the assessment cycles take multiple years. As a contribution to cross- and interdisciplinary understanding across diverse climate change research communities, we have streamlined an annual process to identify and synthesise essential research advances. We collected input from experts on different fields using an online questionnaire and prioritised a set of ten key research insights with high policy relevance. This year we focus on: (1) looming overshoot of the 1.5°C warming limit, (2) urgency of phasing-out fossil fuels, (3) challenges for scaling carbon dioxide removal, (4) uncertainties regarding the future of natural carbon sinks, (5) need for join governance of biodiversity loss and climate change, (6) advances in the science of compound events, (7) mountain glacier loss, (8) human immobility in the face of climate risks, (9) adaptation justice, and (10) just transitions in food systems. We first present a succinct account of these Insights, reflect on their policy implications, and offer an integrated set of policy relevant messages. This science synthesis and science communication effort is also the basis for a report targeted to policymakers as a contribution to elevate climate science every year, in time for the UNFCCC COP. Social media summary We highlight recent and policy-relevant advances in climate change research - with input from more than 200 experts 1.</p

Ten new insights in climate science 2023

Non-technical summary. We identify a set of essential recent advances in climate change research with high policy relevance, across natural and social sciences: (1) looming inevitability and implications of overshooting the 1.5°C warming limit, (2) urgent need for a rapid and managed fossil fuel phase-out, (3) challenges for scaling carbon dioxide removal, (4) uncertainties regarding the future contribution of natural carbon sinks, (5) intertwinedness of the crises of biodiversity loss and climate change, (6) compound events, (7) mountain glacier loss, (8) human immobility in the face of climate risks, (9) adaptation justice, and (10) just transitions in food systems. Technical summary. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Reports provides the scientific foundation for international climate negotiations and constitutes an unmatched resource for researchers. However, the assessment cycles take multiple years. As a contribution to cross- and interdisciplinary understanding of climate change across diverse research communities, we have streamlined an annual process to identify and synthesize significant research advances. We collected input from experts on various fields using an online questionnaire and prioritized a set of 10 key research insights with high policy relevance. This year, we focus on: (1) the looming overshoot of the 1.5°C warming limit, (2) the urgency of fossil fuel phase-out, (3) challenges to scale-up carbon dioxide removal, (4) uncertainties regarding future natural carbon sinks, (5) the need for joint governance of biodiversity loss and climate change, (6) advances in understanding compound events, (7) accelerated mountain glacier loss, (8) human immobility amidst climate risks, (9) adaptation justice, and (10) just transitions in food systems. We present a succinct account of these insights, reflect on their policy implications, and offer an integrated set of policy-relevant messages. This science synthesis and science communication effort is also the basis for a policy report contributing to elevate climate science every year in time for the United Nations Climate Change Conference. Social media summary. We highlight recent and policy-relevant advances in climate change research – with input from more than 200 experts

Ten New Insights in Climate Science 2023/2024

Non-technical summary: We identify a set of essential recent advances in climate change research with high policy relevance, across natural and social sciences: (1) looming inevitability and implications of overshooting the 1.5°C warming limit, (2) urgent need for a rapid and managed fossil fuel phase-out, (3) challenges for scaling carbon dioxide removal, (4) uncertainties regarding the future contribution of natural carbon sinks, (5) intertwinedness of the crises of biodiversity loss and climate change, (6) compound events, (7) mountain glacier loss, (8) human immobility in the face of climate risks, (9) adaptation justice, and (10) just transitions in food systems. Technical summary The IPCC Assessment Reports offer the scientific foundation for international climate negotiations and constitute an unmatched resource for climate change researchers. However, the assessment cycles take multiple years. As a contribution to cross- and interdisciplinary understanding across diverse climate change research communities, we have streamlined an annual process to identify and synthesise essential research advances. We collected input from experts on different fields using an online questionnaire and prioritised a set of ten key research insights with high policy relevance. This year we focus on: (1) looming overshoot of the 1.5°C warming limit, (2) urgency of phasing-out fossil fuels, (3) challenges for scaling carbon dioxide removal, (4) uncertainties regarding the future of natural carbon sinks, (5) need for join governance of biodiversity loss and climate change, (6) advances in the science of compound events, (7) mountain glacier loss, (8) human immobility in the face of climate risks, (9) adaptation justice, and (10) just transitions in food systems. We first present a succinct account of these Insights, reflect on their policy implications, and offer an integrated set of policy relevant messages. This science synthesis and science communication effort is also the basis for a report targeted to policymakers as a contribution to elevate climate science every year, in time for the UNFCCC COP. Social media summary We highlight recent and policy-relevant advances in climate change research - with input from more than 200 experts 1.</p