Intradermal vaccination against hepatitis B in a group of medical students

A prospective study of a low-dose (one-tenth) intradermal regimen using recombinant hepatitis B vaccine was undertaken during two consecutive years in 4th-year medical students. Eighty one per cent of the vaccinees (123/152) seroconverted with anti-HBs levels of > 10 lU/l. The lower titre of hepatitis B surface antibodies compared with published studies on intramuscular immunisation, together with a seroconversion rate of only 81%, makes the intradermal method, in our opinion, a suboptimal form of hepatitis B immunisation

SIRS dynamics on random networks: simulations and analytical models

The standard pair approximation equations (PA) for the Susceptible-Infective-Recovered-Susceptible (SIRS) model of infection spread on a network of homogeneous degree $k$ predict a thin phase of sustained oscillations for parameter values that correspond to diseases that confer long lasting immunity. Here we present a study of the dependence of this oscillatory phase on the parameter $k$ and of its relevance to understand the behaviour of simulations on networks. For $k=4$, we compare the phase diagram of the PA model with the results of simulations on regular random graphs (RRG) of the same degree. We show that for parameter values in the oscillatory phase, and even for large system sizes, the simulations either die out or exhibit damped oscillations, depending on the initial conditions. This failure of the standard PA model to capture the qualitative behaviour of the simulations on large RRGs is currently being investigated.Comment: 6 pages, 3 figures, WIPP to be published in Conference proceedings Complex'2009 February 23-25, Shanghai, Chin

Coastal vulnerability of a pinned, soft-cliff coastline. Part I, assessing the natural sensitivity to wave climate

The impact of future sea-level rise on coastal erosion as a result of a changing climate has been studied in detail over the past decade. The potential impact of a changing wave climate on erosion rates, however, is not typically considered. We explore the effect of changing wave climates on a pinned, soft-cliff, sandy coastline, using as an example the Holderness coast of East Yorkshire, UK. The initial phase of the study concentrates on calibrating a numerical model to recently measured erosion rates for the Holderness coast using an ensemble of geomorphological and shoreface parameters under an observed offshore wave climate. In the main phase of the study, wave climate data are perturbed gradually to assess their impact on coastal morphology. Forward-modelled simulations constrain the nature of the morphological response of the coast to changes in wave climate over the next century. Results indicate that changes to erosion rates over the next century will be spatially and temporally heterogeneous, with a variability of up to ±25% in the erosion rate relative to projections under constant wave climate. The heterogeneity results from the current coastal morphology and the sediment transport dynamics consequent on differing wave climate regimes

Assessing the influence of sea walls on the coastal vulnerability of a pinned, soft-cliff, sandy coastline

Coastal defences have long been employed to halt or slow coastal erosion. Their impact on local sediment flux and ecology has been studied in detail through field studies and numerical simulations. The non-local impact of a modified sediment flux regime on mesoscale erosion and accretion has received less attention. Morphological changes at this scale due to defended structures can be difficult to quantify or identify with field data. Engineering scale numerical models, often applied to assess the design of modern defences on local coastal erosion, tend not to cover large stretches of coast and are rarely applied to assess the impact of older structures. We extend previous work to explore the influences of sea walls on the evolution and morphological sensitivity of a pinned, soft-cliff, sandy coastline under a changing wave climate. The Holderness coast of East Yorkshire, UK, is used as a case study, represented both as a defended example with major sea walls included and a natural example where no sea defences exist. Using a mesoscale numerical coastal evolution model, stochastic wave climate data are perturbed gradually to assess the sensitivity of the coastal morphology to changing wave climate for both the defended and natural scenarios. Comparative analysis of the simulated output suggests that sea walls in the south of the region have a greater impact on sediment flux due to the increased sediment availability along this part of the coast. Multiple defended structures, including those separated by several kilometres, were found to interact with each other, producing a complex imprint on coastal morphology under a changing wave climate. Although spatially and temporally heterogeneous, sea walls generally slowed coastal recession and accumulated sediment on their up-drift side

Coastal vulnerability of a pinned, soft-cliff coastline. Part II, assessing the influence of sea walls on future morphology

Coastal defences have long been employed to halt or slow coastal erosion, and their impact on local sediment flux and ecology has been studied in detail through field research and numerical simulation. The nonlocal impact of a modified sediment flux regime on mesoscale erosion and accretion has received less attention. Morphological changes at this scale due to defending structures can be difficult to quantify or identify with field data. Engineering-scale numerical models, often applied to assess the design of modern defences on local coastal erosion, tend not to cover large stretches of coast and are rarely applied to assess the impact of older structures. We extend previous work to explore the influences of sea walls on the evolution and morphological sensitivity of a pinned, soft-cliff, sandy coastline under a changing wave climate. The Holderness coast of East Yorkshire, UK, is used as a case study to explore model scenarios where the coast is both defended with major sea walls and allowed to evolve naturally were there are no sea defences. Using a mesoscale numerical coastal evolution model, observed wave-climate data are perturbed linearly to assess the sensitivity of the coastal morphology to changing wave climate for both the defended and undefended scenarios. Comparative analysis of the simulated output suggests that sea walls in the south of the region have a greater impact on sediment flux due to increased sediment availability along this part of the coast. Multiple defence structures, including those separated by several kilometres, were found to interact with each other, producing complex changes in coastal morphology under a changing wave climate. Although spatially and temporally heterogeneous, sea walls generally slowed coastal recession and accumulated sediment on their up-drift side

Impacts of Seagrass Dynamics on the Coupled Long‐Term Evolution of Barrier‐Marsh‐Bay Systems

Seagrass provides a wide range of economically and ecologically valuable ecosystem services, with shoreline erosion control often listed as a key service, but can also alter the sediment dynamics and waves within back‐barrier bays. Here we incorporate seagrass dynamics into an existing barrier‐marsh exploratory model, GEOMBEST++, to examine the coupled interactions of the back‐barrier bay with both adjacent (marsh) and nonadjacent (barrier island) subsystems. While seagrass reduces marsh edge erosion rates and increases progradation rates in many of our 288 model simulations, seagrass surprisingly increases marsh edge erosion rates when sediment export from the back‐barrier basin is negligible because the ability of seagrass to reduce the volume of marsh sediment eroded matters little for back‐barrier basins in which all sediment is conserved. Our model simulations also suggest that adding seagrass to the bay subsystem leads to increased deposition in the bay, reduced sediment available to the marsh, and enhanced marsh edge erosion until the bay reaches a new, shallower equilibrium depth. In contrast, removing seagrass liberates previously sequestered sediment that is then delivered to the marsh, leading to enhanced marsh progradation. Lastly, we find that seagrass reduces barrier island migration rates in the absence of back‐barrier marsh by filling accommodation space in the bay. These model observations suggest that seagrass meadows operate as dynamic sources and sinks of sediment that can influence the evolution of coupled marsh and barrier island landforms in unanticipated ways

The complex influences of back-barrier deposition, substrate slope and underlying stratigraphy in barrier island response to sea-level rise: Insights from the Virginia Barrier Islands, Mid-Atlantic Bight, U.S.A.

To understand the relative importance of back barrier environment, substrate slope and underlying stratigraphy in determining barrier island response to RSLR (relative sea-level rise), we use a morphological-behavior model (GEOMBEST) to conduct a series of sensitivity experiments, based on late-Holocene hindcast simulations of an island in the U.S. mid-Atlantic Bight (Metompkin Island, VA) having both salt marsh and lagoonal back-barrier environments, and we draw comparisons between these results and future simulations (2000-2100. AD) of island response to RSLR. Sensitivity analyses indicate that, as a whole, the island is highly sensitive to factors that reduce overall sand availability (i.e., high sand-loss rates and substrates containing little sand). Results also indicate that for all predicted future RSLR scenarios tested, islands having high substrate sand proportions (if allowed to migrate freely) will likely remain subaerial for centuries because of sufficient substrate sand supply and elevation to assist in keeping islands above sea level. Simulation results also lead to basic insights regarding the interactions among substrate slope, back-barrier deposition and island migration rates. In contrast to previous studies, which suggest that changes in substrate slope directly affect the island migration trajectory, we find that-in the presence of back-barrier deposition-the connection between substrate slope and island behavior is modulated (i.e., variability in migration rates is dampened) by changes in back-barrier width. These interactions-which tend to produce changes in shoreface sand content-lead to a negative feedback when the back-barrier deposit contains less sand than the underlying layer, resulting in a stable back-barrier width. Alternatively, a positive feedback arises when the back-barrier deposit contains more sand than the underlying layer, resulting in either back-barrier disappearance or perpetual widening

Observed changes in hurricane-driven waves explain the dynamics of modern cuspate shorelines

A comparison between historical and recent shoreline-change rates on the U.S. east coast (based on observed shoreline positions from the last century and a half) shows that emergent, large-scale, cuspate coastline features are changing shape, becoming more asymmetrical. This change in coastline shape arises from spatial shifts in the location of erosion and accretion zones. Using a numerical model of coastline change forced by wave-driven alongshore sediment flux, we show that a previously identified shift in hurricane-generated wave climate explains the patterns of coastline change we observe. Our results reveal a previously unrecognized type of large-scale, chronic landscape response to changing forcing. Though demonstrated here for a cuspate coastline, similar large-scale morphological adjustments are likely to occur along coastlines of varying morphology in the future - as global warming continues, along with the associated intensification of storms. Our approach allows for constraining and predicting future shifts in coastline shape

Dune Dynamics Drive Discontinuous Barrier Retreat

Barrier islands and spits tend to migrate landward in response to sea-level rise through the storm-driven process of overwash, but overwash flux depends on the height of the frontal dunes. Here, we explore this fundamental linkage between dune dynamics and barrier migration using the new model Barrier3D. Our experiments demonstrate that discontinuous barrier retreat is a prevalent behavior that can arise directly from the bistability of foredune height, occurring most likely when the storm return period and characteristic time scale of dune growth are of similar magnitudes. Under conditions of greater storm intensity, discontinuous retreat becomes the dominant behavior of barriers that were previously stable. Alternatively, higher rates of sea-level rise decrease the overall likelihood of discontinuous retreat in favor of continuous transgression. We find that internal dune dynamics, while previously neglected in exploratory barrier modeling, are an essential component of barrier evolution on time scales relevant to coastal management

Downscaling Changing Coastlines in a Changing Climate: The Hybrid Approach

Shifts in the frequency of typical meteorological patterns in an ocean basin, over interannual to decadal time scales, cause shifts in the patterns of wave generation. Therefore, ocean basin-scale climate shifts produce shifts in the wave climates affecting the coastlines of the basin. We present a hybrid methodology for downscaling observed (or predicted) climate shifts into local nearshore wave climates and then into the associated coastline responses. A series of statistical analyses translate observed (or predicted) distributions of meteorological states into the deep water wave climate affecting a coastal region and dynamical modeling combined with statistical analyses transform the deep water wave climate into the nearshore wave climate affecting a particular coastline. Finally, dynamical modeling of coastline evolution hindcasts (or predicts) how coastline shapes respond to climate shifts. As a case study, we downscale from meteorological hindcast in the North Atlantic basin since 1870 to the responses of the shape of the coast of the Carolinas, USA. We test the hindcasts using shoreline change rates calculated from historical shorelines, because shifts in coastline shape equate to changes in the alongshore pattern of shoreline change rates from one historical period to another. Although limited by the availability of historical shorelines (and complicated by historical inlet openings), the observations are consistent with the predicted signal of ocean basin-scale climate change. The hybrid downscaling methodology, applied to the output of global climate models, can be used to help forecast future patterns of shoreline change related to future climate change scenarios