The party leadership model : an early forecast of the 2015 British general election

British political parties select their leaders to win elections. The winning margin of the party leader among the selectorate reflects how likely they think she is to win the General Election. The present research compares the winning margins of party leaders in their party leadership elections and uses the results of this comparison to predict that the party leader with the larger winning margin will become the next Prime Minister. I term this process "the Party Leadership Model". The model correctly forecasts 8 out of 10 past elections, while making these forecasts 4 years in advance on average. According to a Bayesian analysis, there is a 95 per cent probability that having the larger winning margin in party leadership elections increases the chances of winning the General Election. Because David Cameron performed better among Conservative MPs in 2005 than Ed Miliband did among Labour MPs in 2010, the model predicts Cameron to become Prime Minister again in 2015. The Bayesian calculation puts his chances of re-election at 75 per cent

Bridges of Markov counting processes. Reciprocal classes and duality formulas

Processes having the same bridges are said to belong to the same reciprocal class. In this article we analyze reciprocal classes of Markov counting processes by identifying their reciprocal invariants and we characterize them as the set of counting processes satisfying some duality formula

Fungal speciation using quantitative polymerase chain reaction (QPCR) in patients with and without chronic rhinosinusitis.

Objectives/hypothesisThe objectives of this study were to determine the mycology of the middle meatus using an endoscopically guided brush sampling technique and polymerase chain reaction laboratory processing of nasal mucous; to compare the mycology of the middle meatus in patients with sinus disease with subjects without sinus disease; to compare the responses on two standardized quality-of-life survey forms between patients with and without sinusitis; and to determine whether the presence of fungi in the middle meatus correlates with responses on these data sets.Study designThe authors conducted a single-blind, prospective, cross-sectional study.MethodsPatients with sinus disease and a control group without sinus disease were enrolled in the study. A disease-specific, validated Sinonasal Outcomes Test survey (SNOT-20) was completed by the subjects and a generalized validated Medical Outcomes Short Form 36 Survey (SF-36) was also completed. An endoscopically guided brush sampling of nasal mucous was obtained from the middle meatus. Fungal specific quantitative polymerase chain reaction (QPCR) was performed on the obtained sample to identify one of 82 different species of fungus in the laboratory. Statistical analysis was used to categorize the recovered fungal DNA and to crossreference this information with the outcomes surveys.ResultsThe fungal recovery rate in the study was 45.9% in patients with sinus disease and 45.9% in control subjects. Patients with chronic rhinosinusitis had a mean SNOT-20 score of 1.80 versus the control group mean score of 0.77 (P < .0001). SF-36 data similarly showed a statistically significant difference between diseased and control populations with controls scoring a mean of 80.37 and patients with chronic rhinosinusitis scoring a mean of 69.35 for a P value of .02. However, no statistical significance could be ascribed to the presence or absence of fungi recovered, the type of fungi recovered, or the possible impact of fungi on the quality-of-life survey results.ConclusionThe recovery rate of fungi from the middle meatus of patients with chronic rhinosinusitis and a control population without chronic rhinosinusitis is 45.9% using QPCR techniques. No direct causation with regard to fungal species or presence was proven; however, a species grouping for future studies is proposed based on trends in this data and other reports. Disease-specific outcomes surveys revealed a statistically significant difference between the two groups

Police Officer Perception of Body Cameras in East Tennessee

The purpose of this study was to explore police officer perception of body cameras. There had been little previous research done on the police officer perception of body cameras in rural areas. Several research questions were pursued, including the impact of body cameras on citizens, the impact of body cameras on police officers, use of force and body cameras, body cameras effects on calls, and the officers’ support of body cameras. The study gathered data through qualitative interviews with 16 police officers in East Tennessee to address these questions. Results obtained provided interesting and useful information regarding the police perception of body cameras, which are discussed in detail. Implication of the research as well as ways to further the research are discussed as well

Prognoserelevanz personbezogener Talentprädiktoren im Fußball - Eine systematische Analyse zur empirischen Evidenz unter Berücksichtigung von Merkmalen des Studiendesigns

Für ambitionierte Fußballvereine und -verbände haben die Prozesse der Identifikation, Selektion und Entwicklung von Talenten im Rahmen einer effektiven Nachwuchsförderung in den letzten Jahren stark an Bedeutung gewonnen. Die Identifikation und Selektion von Spielern in Talentförderprogrammen erfolgt bisher überwiegend anhand subjektiver Bewertungen von Trainerexperten. Eine Aufgabe der Talentforschung ist es zu klären, inwiefern diese subjektiven Urteile über zukünftigen Erfolg von Spielern durch objektive Diagnostiken unterstützt werden können. In letzter Zeit wurden hierzu Studien mit heterogenen Befunden vorgelegt, jedoch existiert aktuell kein Gesamtüberblick über die prognostische Relevanz von Talentprädiktoren unter Verwendung objektiver Diagnostiken im Nachwuchsfußball. In zwei systematischen Reviews verfolgte die vorliegende Dissertation das Ziel einer kritischen Auseinandersetzung mit dem aktuellen Forschungsstand zur prognostischen Relevanz von personbezogenen (d.h. physiologischen, anthropometrischen und psychologischen) Talentprädiktoren im Fußball. Dabei standen eine systematische Aufarbeitung existierender Studien zur Prognoserelevanz sowie zur empirischen Evidenz einzelner Prädiktoren aus dem Merkmalsspektrum personbezogener Talentprädiktoren im Mittelpunkt der Betrachtung. Aufgrund unterschiedlicher methodischer Herangehensweisen der analysierten Prognosestudien lag ein weiteres Augenmerk dieser Arbeit auf den verwendeten Merkmalen der Studiendesigns und deren potentiellen Einfluss als Variable. Die Ergebnisse aus den beiden Reviews zeigten hohe prognostische Validität für die Prädiktoren Ausdauer, Schnelligkeit sowie den technischen Fertigkeiten Dribbling oder Ballkontrolle. Dagegen konnten für die anthropometrischen Prädiktoren Körpergröße und Gewicht keine empirischen Evidenzen nachgewiesen werden. Für die prognostische Relevanz von psychologischen Persönlichkeitsdispositionen und kognitiven Prädiktoren sind die Befunde einzelner Studien bisher inkonsistent bzw. aufgrund ihrer geringen Berücksichtigung in der Forschungslandschaft wenig aussagekräftig. Eine weitere zentrale Erkenntnis dieser Arbeit lag in den stark heterogenen Studiendesigns zur Überprüfung der Prognoserelevanz im Rahmen der analysierten Studien. Hinsichtlich der insgesamt geringen Anzahl der in den Reviews vorliegenden Studien (21) und der vielen unterschiedlichen Merkmale innerhalb der einzelnen Studiendesigns, fällt es zum jetzigen Zeitpunkt noch schwer, klare Aussagen darüber zu treffen, in welchem Maße einzelne Merkmale einen Einfluss auf die prognostische Relevanz von bestimmten Prädiktoren haben können. Es kann jedoch festgehalten werden, dass eine identifizierte prognostische Relevanz nicht zwingend auf jedes Leistungsniveau oder auf die verschiedenen Entwicklungsphasen der Spieler zu übertragen ist. Um zukünftig genauere Aussagen treffen zu können, in welchem Maße einzelne Merkmale die prognostische Relevanz beeinflussen können, sollten sich Studien bezüglich ihrer Studiendesigns nur in wenigen Merkmalen unterscheiden. Unabhängig davon sollte bei der Durchführung weiterer Studien zur Prognoserelevanz personbezogener Talentprädiktoren auf eine hohe methodologische Qualität geachtet werden. Vor diesem Hintergrund liefert die Dissertation einen Leitfadenentwurf zur Orientierung bei der Erstellung zukünftiger prospektiver Talentstudien im Fußball. Auf Basis festgestellter Erkenntnisse aus den beiden Reviews, wurden in einem weiteren Schritt dieser Arbeit aktuelle Forschungsdefizite in zwei empirischen Studien bearbeitet. In diesem Zusammenhang wurde zum einen eine neu entwickelte, fußballspezifische Diagnostik basierend auf realitätsnahen Videoszenen zum Entscheidungshandeln evaluiert und hinsichtlich prognostischer Validität überprüft. Zum anderen wurde in einer prospektiven Studie im Rahmen des DFB-Talentförderprogramms die bisher nicht untersuchte prognostisches Relevanz technomotorischer Prädiktoren im Mädchenfußball analysiert. Aufbauend auf einer theoretischen Gesamtbetrachtung der Prognoserelevanz personbezogener Talentprädiktoren und zwei daraus abgeleiteten empirischen Studien dient diese Dissertationsschrift dazu, sowohl die praktische als auch die wissenschaftliche Perspektive bezüglich der Prozesse Talentidentifikation, Talentselektion und Talententwicklung zu erweitern

Citizens forecast a hung parliament with the Conservatives as the largest party

Can citizens forecast the outcome of the UK election? In this post, Andreas Murr presents the results of his forecasting model, which predicts constituency level results by asking citizens in each constituency which party they think is likely to win in their area. The forecast suggests that there will be a hung parliament, with the Conservatives as the largest party

Working the boundaries: a dialogical narrative analysis of social work practice educators' stories

A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements of the University of Wolverhampton for the degree of Doctor of Education.Practice educators facilitate and assess the learning and professional development of social work students on placement. Ongoing political dispute about the nature and purpose of social work in England creates complexity that impacts on the perception and positioning of practice educators in social work education. This thesis explores practice educators’ experiences with a view to gaining fresh insight into how they position themselves, and are positioned by others, in this landscape. Within a qualitative, interpretivist narrative research design, practice educators’ experiences were gathered in the form of stories during semi-structured conversational-interviews. The participants were chosen by purposeful sampling. Dialogical narrative analysis (Frank, 2010) was used to analyse and interpret the stories. Frank (2010) describes dialogical narrative analysis as a method of questioning. It is underpinned by the premises that people think with stories and not just about them (Frank 2010), and that they transmit their theories and explanations of experience through stories (Shay, 2006; 2008a). New understandings of practice educators have been developed from the research, including fresh insight into their roles as facilitators and assessors of learning, and evaluators of learning experiences. Their role as boundary workers is also explored and a better understanding of the boundaried nature of the practice learning landscape in which they work has been developed. The capacity of practice educators to deploy relational agency in their role as boundary workers is discussed, along with consideration of the ways in which practice educators’ capacity for agency can be impeded by structural forces. The implications of these new understandings have informed recommendations to enhance practice educators’ recognition, to support their activity as a collective and develop their capacity to exercise their agency.University of Wolverhampton, Faculty of Education, Health and Wellbeing

“I Became Proud of Being Gay and Proud of Being Christian”: Faith Experiences of Queer Christian Women

Involvement in religious communities is associated with many physical, social, mental and emotional benefits. Religious people report better health, more energy, and better relationships (Deaton, 2009). Religious people were also more likely to report that they are treated with respect. Religious involvement has also been found to lessen the impact of negative experiences such as poverty, depression, physical illness and even trauma (Bradshaw and Ellison, 2010; Farley, 2007; Jeongim Heo & Koeske, 2010). Frequently lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender or queer (LGBTQ) people of faith are denied these benefits of religious involvement. This study will focus on the experiences of lesbian and bisexual women who’ve grown up in non-affirming Christian environments. Through qualitative interviews, stories will be gathered about experiences within congregations, the experience of coming out, and how participants’ faith and spiritual practices have changed, adapted, and remained