Exploring uncertainties in global crop yield projections in a large ensemble of crop models and CMIP5 and CMIP6 climate scenarios

Concerns over climate change are motivated in large part because of their impact on human society. Assessing the effect of that uncertainty on specific potential impacts is demanding, since it requires a systematic survey over both climate and impacts models. We provide a comprehensive evaluation of uncertainty in projected crop yields for maize, spring and winter wheat, rice, and soybean, using a suite of nine crop models and up to 45 CMIP5 and 34 CMIP6 climate projections for three different forcing scenarios. To make this task computationally tractable, we use a new set of statistical crop model emulators. We find that climate and crop models contribute about equally to overall uncertainty. While the ranges of yield uncertainties under CMIP5 and CMIP6 projections are similar, median impact in aggregate total caloric production is typically more negative for the CMIP6 projections (+1% to −19%) than for CMIP5 (+5% to −13%). In the first half of the 21st century and for individual crops is the spread across crop models typically wider than that across climate models, but we find distinct differences between crops: globally, wheat and maize uncertainties are dominated by the crop models, but soybean and rice are more sensitive to the climate projections. Climate models with very similar global mean warming can lead to very different aggregate impacts so that climate model uncertainties remain a significant contributor to agricultural impacts uncertainty. These results show the utility of large-ensemble methods that allow comprehensively evaluating factors affecting crop yields or other impacts under climate change. The crop model ensemble used here is unbalanced and pulls the assumption that all projections are equally plausible into question. Better methods for consistent model testing, also at the level of individual processes, will have to be developed and applied by the crop modeling community

The Grizzly, April 8, 2010

First Annual Backwards Beauty Pageant Held • Ursinus Senior to Travel Abroad for a Year with Watson • Kappa Alpha Psi and Seismic Step Emerge on Campus • UC Welcomes New Field Hockey Coach • Sex on Wheels Documentary Screening • Volunteering with St. Christopher\u27s Children\u27s Hospital • Feeling Good in The Skin We\u27re In • The Sacrifice Your Body Makes for [Better] Grades • Opinion: Kyleigh\u27s Law Profiles Drivers by Age in New Jersey • Upper Classmen Off-Campus Living • UC Gymnastics Closes Season with Successhttps://digitalcommons.ursinus.edu/grizzlynews/1810/thumbnail.jp

Estrous Cyclicity of Mice During Simulated Weightlessness

Hindlimb unloading (HU) is a rodent model system used to simulate weightlessness experienced in space. However, some effects of this approach on rodent physiology are under-studied, specifically the effects on ovarian estrogen production which drives the estrous cycle. To resolve this deficiency, we conducted a ground-based validation study using the HU model, while monitoring estrous cycles in 16-weeks-old female C57BL6 mice. Animals were exposed to HU for 12 days following a 3 day HU cage acclimation period, and estrous cycling was analyzed in HU animals (n22), normally loaded HU Cage Pair-Fed controls (CPF; n22), and Vivarium controls fed ad libitum (VIV; n10). Pair feeding was used to control for potential nutritional deficits on ovarian function. Vaginal cells were sampled daily in all mice via saline lavage. Cells were dried and stained with crystal violet, and the smears evaluated using established vaginal cytology techniques by two individuals blinded to the animal treatment group. Estrous cyclicity was disrupted in nearly all HU and CPF mice, while those maintained in VIV had an average normal cycle length of 4.8 0.5 days, with all stages in the cycle visibly observed. CPF and HU animals arrested in the diestrous phase, which precedes the pre-ovulatory estrogen surge. Additionally, infection-like symptoms characterized by vaginal discharge and swelling arose in several HU animals, which we suspect was due to an inability of these mice to properly groom themselves, andor due to the change in the gravity vector relative to the vaginal opening, which prevented drainage of the lavage solution. Pair-feeding resulted in similar weight gains of HU and CPF (1.5 vs 3.0, respectively). The current results indicate that pair-feeding controlled weight gain and that the HU cage alone influenced estrous cyclicity. Thus, longer acclimation needs to be tested to determine if and when normal estrous cycling resumes in non-loaded mice in HU cages prior to HU testing. Future studies might also examine whether modifications to the vaginal lavage procedure might prevent the onset of the infection-like symptoms, and allow estrous cyclicity to be measured in this model system

The Grizzly, March 4, 2010

Ursinus Theater presents The Crucible • Political Cartoonist, Author Discusses New Book • CoSA Application, Logo Submission Deadlines Extended • Interest in Bioethics in Medicine Rises at UC • American Heart Month • Ursinus Looks Into The Buried Life • Neshoba Highlights Civil Rights Corruption in Honor of Black History Month • Chat Roulette Gambles with the Issues of Social Networking • Ursinus Lacrosse Looks to Outwork Opposition • Indoor Track & Field Championshiphttps://digitalcommons.ursinus.edu/grizzlynews/1808/thumbnail.jp

The rapid assessment of aggregated wastewater samples for genomic surveillance of sars-cov-2 on a city-wide scale

Throughout the course of the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic there has been a need for approaches that enable rapid monitoring of public health using an unbiased and minimally invasive means. A major way this has been accomplished is through the regular assessment of wastewater samples by qRT-PCR to detect the prevalence of viral nucleic acid with respect to time and location. Further expansion of SARS-CoV-2 wastewater monitoring efforts to include the detection of variants of interest/concern through next-generation sequencing has enhanced the understanding of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak. In this report, we detail the results of a collaborative effort between public health and metropolitan wastewater management authorities and the University of Louisville to monitor the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic through the monitoring of aggregate wastewater samples over a period of 28 weeks. Through the use of next-generation sequencing approaches the polymorphism signatures of Variants of Concern / Interest were evaluated to determine the likelihood of their prevalence within the community on the basis of their relative dominance within sequence datasets. Our data indicate that wastewater monitoring of water quality treatment centers and smaller neighbor-hood-scale catchment areas is a viable means by which the prevalence and genetic variation of SARS-CoV-2 within a metropolitan community of approximately one million individuals may be monitored, as our efforts detected the introduction and emergence of variants of concern in the city of Louisville. Importantly, these efforts confirm that regional emergence and spread of variants of interest/concern may be detected as readily in aggregate wastewater samples as compared to the individual wastewater sheds. Furthermore, the information gained from these efforts enabled targeted public health efforts including increased outreach to at-risk communities and the deployment of mobile or community-focused vaccination campaigns

The Grizzly, October 27, 1998

Mischief and Mayhem Night • Big Brother\u27s in the Library • Rewind: Homecoming Alterations • Racism: One Piece of the Puzzle • The Democratic Dilemma of Legislating Hate • Are We Creatures of Habit? • A Look at What Ursinus Terms as Security • Students Voice Security Concerns • Borsdorf Spreads Fitness Message Over East Coast • Sculpture Depicts Trauma, Unity and Sacrifice of War Years • Ursinus Welcomes Savadove • Jeffrey Gaines Entertains Ursinus • Church on Film • McKellen Teaches Us a Thing or Two in Apt Pupil • The Big Fella\u27s Forum • Ursinus Destroys Gettysburg • Linebacker Vecchio Shines for Ursinus • Women\u27s Soccer Makes History • Cross Country Runs Over Competition • Soccer Falls Against Gettysburg • UC Volleyball Evens Out at .500 • Field Hockey Chalks Up First Victoryhttps://digitalcommons.ursinus.edu/grizzlynews/1991/thumbnail.jp

The Grizzly, November 10, 1998

Financial Aid: Who Here Gets It? • President Pleased with Success of Roundtable • Upperclassman Mentors • Opinion: Letter to the Editor; New Athletic Facility; Reflection on Mid-term Elections; U.S. Policy Makers, Look Before you Leap; Cashing in on the Past • Betting, Off-Track and On-Campus • Kidnapped? Grizzly Uncovers Surprising Truth About Missing Corson Statue • War Years Classes Dedicate Promise-Anthem • Remembering War Years Life at Ursinus • Eden Cinema at Ursinus • Waiting for the World to Catch Up • Swimming Takes First Plunge • UC Field Hockey Finishes Strong • Bears\u27 Future: Contenders or Pretenders? • NCAA Sets to Control Wrestling Tragedies • Men\u27s Basketball Prepares for Tough Schedule • Ursinus Athletes Honored • UC Soccer Finishes Season with Tough Losshttps://digitalcommons.ursinus.edu/grizzlynews/1428/thumbnail.jp

The Grizzly, November 3, 1998

President\u27s Proposal Summons Bears to the Roundtable • Pay...Now or Later • Myrin Security a Necessity • Close of Olin\u27s Open Door Policy • Opinion: Random Rudeness and Senseless Acts of Destruction; Why This Election Matters; College Students: Get Out and Vote! • Group Helps Students Cope with Loss • Kicking the Habit, One Habit at a Time • New Course Tackles The Big Questions • A Night of Jazz • Intercollegiate Choir • Graffiti Tribe Returns • Men\u27s Soccer Dominates Swarthmore • Season High for UC Volleyball • Field Hockey Victorious Over Colgate • UC Swimmers Test the Water • Women\u27s Soccer Season Ends Its Third Year • Football Loses to Muhlenberg in Overtimehttps://digitalcommons.ursinus.edu/grizzlynews/1427/thumbnail.jp