Modelling Agricultural Diffuse Pollution: CAP – WFD Interactions and Cost Effectiveness of Measures

Within the context of the Water Framework Directive (WFD) and the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), the design of effective and sustainable agricultural and water resources management policies presents multiple challenges. This paper presents a methodological framework that will be used to identify synergies and trade-offs between the CAP and the WFD in relation to their economic and water resources environmental effects, and to assess the cost-effectiveness of measures to control water pollution, in a representative case study catchment in Scotland. The approach is based on the combination of a biophysical simulation model (CropSyst) with a mathematical programming model (FSSIM-MP), so as to provide a better understanding and representation of the economic and agronomic/environmental processes that take place within the agricultural system.Bio-economic Modelling, Water Framework Directive, Common Agricultural Policy, Agricultural and Food Policy, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Fostering the Implementation of Nature Conservation Measures in Agricultural Landscapes: The NatApp

Large-scale, high-input, and intensified agriculture poses threats to sustainable agroecosystems and their inherent biodiversity. The EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) covers a great number of nature conservation programs (Agri-Environment and Climate Measures, AECM) aiming to encourage sustainable agriculture. Currently, farmers are not encouraged to broadly implement these measures due to the lack of structured information, overly complicated and unclear application procedures, and a high risk of sanctions. In addition, the current structures are associated with time-consuming monitoring and control procedures for the paying agencies. Digital technologies can offer valuable assistance to circumvent relevant barriers and limitations and support a broader uptake of AECM. NatApp is a digital tool that supports and guides farmers through the complete process of choosing, applying, implementing, and documenting AECM on their fields in accordance with legal requirements in Germany. We introduce the concept of NatApp and analyze how it can simplify and encourage the uptake and implementation of AECM. This study identifies its unique features for the provision of information and documentation opportunities compared with other digital farming tools focused on sustainable agriculture and outline how it can support farmers to actively contribute to more sustainable agriculture.“Cross-federal state implementation study on the use of the nature conservation app (NatApp) in agricultural and administrative practice-NatApp 2.0”Peer Reviewe

Global Fossil Energy Markets and Climate Change Mitigation: An Analysis with REMIND

We analyze the dynamics of global fossil resource markets under different assumptions for the supply of fossil fuel resources, development pathways for energy demand, and climate policy settings. Resource markets, in particular the oil market, are characterized by a large discrepancy between costs of resource extraction and commodity prices on international markets. We explain this observation in terms of (a) the intertemporal scarcity rent, (b) regional price differentials arising from trade and transport costs, (c) heterogeneity and inertia in the extraction sector. These effects are captured by the REMIND model. We use the model to explore economic effects of changes in coal, oil and gas markets induced by climate-change mitigation policies. A large share of fossil fuel reserves and resources will be used in the absence of climate policy leading to atmospheric GHG concentrations well beyond a level of 550 ppm CO2-eq. This result holds independently of different assumptions about energy demand and fossil fuel availability. Achieving ambitious climate targets will drastically reduce fossil fuel consumption, in particular the consumption of coal. Conventional oil and gas as well as non-conventional oil reserves are still exhausted. We find the net present value of fossil fuel rent until 2100 at 30tril.US$with a large share of oil and a small share of coal. This is reduced by 9 and 12tril.US$ to achieve climate stabilization at 550 and 450 ppm CO2-eq, respectively. This loss is, however, overcompensated by revenues from carbon pricing that are 21 and 32tril.US$, respectively. The overcompensation also holds under variations of energy demand and fossil fuel supply

RoSE: Roadmaps Towards Sustainable Energy Futures and Climate Protection: A Synthesis of Results from the Rose Project

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Exploring energy demand and supply uncertainty: An exploration of uncertainty on drivers of energy demand and supply is indispensable for better understanding the prospects of long-tern climate stabilization. The RoSE study is the first of its kind to systematically explore the impact of economic growth, population and fossil fuel scarcity, in scenarios with and without climate policy, using a model ensemble. A feature of RoSE is the participation of five established integrated assessment modelling teams from three important regions in international climate policy negotiations: the EU, the USA and China. Economic growth: Neither slow nor rapid economic growth solves the climate problem by itself. In the absence of climate policy and if energy intensity improvements continue along historical trends, higher economic activity implies higher energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions. The increase in energy and carbon intensity improvements with higher economic growth is overcompensated by the larger growth in per capita income. Even under slow economic growth assumptions, GDP will rise significantly above today’s level, leading to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions. Fossil fuel availability: Fossil fuel scarcity is insufficient to slow global warming significantly. Low fossil fuel availability leads to levels of greenhouse gas emissions that are higher than those under climate change stabilization. Nevertheless, fossil fuel availability significantly influences the energy mix and the CO2 emissions in scenarios without climate policy. Energy use: There are robust patterns in projections of energy use in the absence of climate policy. Higher economic growth increases the scale of the energy system, which continues to be mostly supplied by fossil fuels. Structural differences in the energy supply mix occur for variations in fossil resource availability, particularly coal and oil supply. Models unanimously show an electrification of energy end use independently of economic growth and fossil resource assumptions. Emissions phase out: Climate stabilization requires a phase out of global greenhouse gas emissions in the long run. For a stringent stabilization target compatible with the 2°C goal (a level of 450 ppm CO2 equivalent in the atmosphere), net emissions have to be nearly phased out by 2100. For a less ambitious, but still stringent stabilization level of 550 ppm CO2e, emissions would need to be more than halved by the end of the century, and decline towards zero in the 22nd century. Energy systems transformation: Climate stabilization implies a fundamental transformation of global energy systems. Climate stabilization requires a transformation to a low carbon energy system in the 21st century with historically unprecedented decarbonization rates. Models tell different stories when and what to reduce, but some robust patterns emerge. On the supply side, coal is rapidly replaced with non-fossil energy sources. On the demand side, models foresee a larger share of electricity and gases coupled with a strong reduction of solids. The structure of the energy transformation is largely unaffected by variations in fossil fuel availability and economic growth. The effect of fossil fuel availability on fossil fuel use is negligible in climate stabilization scenarios. Thus, climate policy effectively limits uncertainty about future fossil fuel use. Carbon prices and mitigation costs: Variations in economic growth and fossil fuel availability can alter carbon prices and mitigation costs substantially. A supply push of fossil energy can be more easily neutralized with a carbon price signal than a demand pull due to higher levels of economic output. Thus, carbon prices vary more strongly with growth projections than with fossil fuel availability. Mitigation cost estimates are sensitive to economic growth and fossil fuel assumptions. Costs increase by approximately 30 to 100% from low to high economic growth, and from low to high fossil fuel availability Weak policies: Current climate policies are insufficient for 2°C stabilization With the currently planned climate policies and pledged emissions reductions the world is not on track towards the 2°C target. If current trends of weak and globally uncoordinated climate policies continue, global mean temperatures are likely to increase by more than 3°C by 2100. Delayed action: Delaying action greatly increases the challenge of keeping warming below 2°C. In case of a further delay in the implementation of comprehensive global emissions reductions the transformation effort needs to be compressed into a shorter period of time. These higher emission reduction rates required in such later-action scenarios imply, inter alia, i) faster decarbonization of the energy system, ii) faster reductions of energy demand, iii) more stranded investments due to pre-maturely retired fossil capacities, and iv) higher transitory economic losses during the phase-in of climate policies. The implications of delaying action until 2030 are considerably more severe than those of a delay until 2020. While the models are able to compute low-stabilization scenarios with a prolonged delay of action, the dramatic increase in mitigation challenges in case of policy delay until 2030 make it seem unlikely that such pathways can be implemented in the real world. China: Climate stabilization implies a fundamental energy transformation for China. Carbon emissions from fossil fuel combustion in China are expected to double from 2005 levels by 2020. Different assumptions on climate policy driven carbon intensity reductions lead to a large range of 6-12 Gt CO2 emissions by 2050, as calculated with an energy system model of the Chinese economy (China-TIMES model). Climate stabilization scenarios from global models show emissions in China below or at the low end of this range in 2050. The emission trajectories differ across models but all peak during 2020-2025 for the 450 ppm CO2e target and 2025-2030 for the 550 ppm CO2e target. This indicates that stringent climate targets would imply ambitious emission reductions in China. Africa: The rates of economic and population growth in Africa have profound implications for energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. Today Africa accounts for a modest 3% of global energy system CO2 emissions. The evolution of Africa’s emissions over the coming century depends critically on future population and income. Absent any climate policy, Africa could become a major emitter in the second half of the 21st century if economic growth in this part of the world is steady. In the shorter term, the extent of energy poverty and improvements in access to modern energy in Africa are also driven by assumptions regarding future population and economic growth. Slower economic growth and larger population growth result in a significantly slower transition to modern energy access and use on the continent. Climate policies have a strong impact on energy resource markets, resource rents and energy security. Climate policies interfere with fossil fuel markets and reallocate rent incomes from providing scarce goods. The global losses of fossil fuel rents are overcompensated by revenues from carbon pricing. The losses of rents from coal are much smaller than those for oil, though coal is the fossil fuel that needs to be reduced the most. Achieving the 2°C target still allows using conventional and unconventional oil reserves. Large part of the coal reserve needs to be left underground. Energy security is significantly improved by climate policy under all assumptions about resource availability and GDP growth. That is due to a reduction of risks associated with energy trade and an increase in the resilience of energy systems through higher diversity. Climate policy also makes total energy supply, the energy mix and energy trade more predictable and possibly easier to manage. Climate policies may also entail certain risks for energy security. In particular, deep penetration of solar energy in the electricity sector or biofuels in the liquid fuels sector may reduce the diversity of these energy systems by the end of the century. Land use: Population, economic growth, and fossil fuel scarcity all have implications for land use. Larger populations require more food, increasing the extent of cropland area. Wealthier populations tend to eat more meat, a landintensive commodity, increasing cropland and pasture cover. Growing, wealthier populations also demand more energy. Fossil fuel scarcity drives increased consumption of bioenergy and land devoted to its production. All three of these effects lead to reductions in forest cover and increases in land-use change CO2 emissions. Investments and innovation: Economic growth and fossil fuel scarcity can both stimulate clean energy innovation and non-fossil-fuel investments. When economies grow faster energy resources are used more efficiently, but fossil fuels would remain the prevalent source of energy. In contrast, the expectation of high energy prices could redirect ample financial resources to R&D programs aimed at developing new energy sources. Although economic growth and fossil fuel prices can create an economic opportunity for more investments in non-fossil energy technologies and clean energy R&D, still they would lag behind the levels observed in stabilization scenarios and would not induce emission reductions compatible with climate stabilization objectives. On average, baseline total R&D investments amount to about 67 billion 2005 US$/yr while they increase to almost twice as much (113 billion 2005 US$/yr) in the 450 ppm CO2e stabilization scenario. The availability of cheap gas resources would increase gas investments, mostly to substitute coal especially in coal-intensive countries. Yet, it would only marginally displace investments in clean energy innovation

Environmental co-benefits and adverse side-effects of alternative power sector decarbonization strategies

A rapid and deep decarbonization of power supply worldwide is required to limit global warming to well below 2 °C. Beyond greenhouse gas emissions, the power sector is also responsible for numerous other environmental impacts. Here we combine scenarios from integrated assessment models with a forward-looking life-cycle assessment to explore how alternative technology choices in power sector decarbonization pathways compare in terms of non-climate environmental impacts at the system level. While all decarbonization pathways yield major environmental co-benefits, we find that the scale of co-benefits as well as profiles of adverse side-effects depend strongly on technology choice. Mitigation scenarios focusing on wind and solar power are more effective in reducing human health impacts compared to those with low renewable energy, while inducing a more pronounced shift away from fossil and toward mineral resource depletion. Conversely, non-climate ecosystem damages are highly uncertain but tend to increase, chiefly due to land requirements for bioenergy

Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming – simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b)

In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a "special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways". In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the response devised within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to provide tailored, cross-sectorally consistent impact projections to broaden the scientific basis for the report. The simulation protocol is designed to allow for (1) separation of the impacts of historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from impacts of other drivers such as historical land-use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations); (2) quantification of the impacts of additional warming up to 1.5°C, including a potential overshoot and long-term impacts up to 2299, and comparison to higher levels of global mean temperature change (based on the low-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation pathway RCP6.0) with socio-economic conditions fixed at 2005 levels; and (3) assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios while accounting for simultaneous changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle-of-the-road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2, Fricko et al., 2016) and in particular differential bioenergy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to comply with RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. With the aim of providing the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and analysis of cross-sectoral interactions that may dampen or amplify sectoral impacts, the protocol is designed to facilitate consistent impact projections from a range of impact models across different sectors (global and regional hydrology, lakes, global crops, global vegetation, regional forests, global and regional marine ecosystems and fisheries, global and regional coastal infrastructure, energy supply and demand, temperature-related mortality, and global terrestrial biodiversity)

Assessing the impacts of 1.5°C global warming -- simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b)

In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways. In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the response devised within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to provide tailored, cross-sectorally consistent impact projections to broaden the scientific basis for the report. The simulation protocol is designed to allow for (1) separation of the impacts of historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from impacts of other drivers such as historical land-use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations); (2) quantification of the impacts of additional warming up to 1.5 °C, including a potential overshoot and long-term impacts up to 2299, and comparison to higher levels of global mean temperature change (based on the low-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation pathway RCP6.0) with socio-economic conditions fixed at 2005 levels; and (3) assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios while accounting for simultaneous changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle-of-the-road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2, Fricko et al., 2016) and in particular differential bioenergy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to comply with RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. With the aim of providing the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and analysis of cross-sectoral interactions that may dampen or amplify sectoral impacts, the protocol is designed to facilitate consistent impact projections from a range of impact models across different sectors (global and regional hydrology, lakes, global crops, global vegetation, regional forests, global and regional marine ecosystems and fisheries, global and regional coastal infrastructure, energy supply and demand, temperature-related mortality, and global terrestrial biodiversity)

Assessing agricultural and nitrate pollution control policies with a bio-economic modelling approach

Agricultural production and sustainable management of water resources are often in conflict. Focusing on the economy-agriculture-water resources links, two major policies are currently in place in the European Union: the Water Framework Directive (W FD) and the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). Within these two policies, we are dealing with two conflicting goals in relation to agriculture: to minimise the adverse impacts o f the sector on the water environment, and to maximise its economic return. Nitrogen fertiliser use is a particularly sensitive issue, given that it is one of the most significant factors determining farm productivity and agricultural diffuse pollution, and its impact on crop yields and pollution losses is determined by complex processes controlled by both natural and man-made factors. Clearly, analysing and modelling such a system requires understanding of both natural and social sciences. This thesis analyses the problem of nitrate water pollution from agricultural sources, with a focus on arable cropping systems. The impact of agricultural and water management policies on farmers' decision making and the resultant economic and nitrate pollution effects are investigated. The Lunan Water catchment in Scotland was used as a case study to i) explore the water quality and economic effects of the 2003 CA P Reform and the CA P Health Check, ii) assess the cost-effectiveness of economic and managerial measures against nitrate pollution, and iii) evaluate the effectiveness o f the methodology used. The above goals were achieved by using a bio-economic modelling approach, which combines bio-physical and mathematical programming modelling. The results indicate that the decoupling o f subsidies under the CA P reform resulted in minor changes regarding land use and subsequently economic and water quality indicators. The abolition o f set-aside under the CA P Health Check increased farm incomes through the substitution of set-aside by profitable w inter cereal crops. Even though these changes resulted in increased fertiliser use, the results indicate that this does not necessarily imply increased nitrate leaching due to rotational effects associated to the nature o f nitrate losses. An analysis o f the relative cost-effectiveness of measures demonstrated that similar leaching reductions can be incentivised through a number of economic instruments, such as per unit taxes on nitrogen fertiliser inputs and nitrate leaching, per hectare nitrate leaching standards and nitrogen fertiliser quotas, and subsidies and cross compliance measures aiming at the reduction of fertiliser intensity. Taxes impose considerable costs on farmers without resulting in significant nitrate leaching reductions. On the other hand, subsidies impose the costs of environmental protection on the rest of the society, while cross-compliance can deliver water quality improvements at a low er cost com pared to taxes. Cross-compliance instruments can either be used for the enforcement o f measures at the farm level, such as nitrogen quotas, or measures at the field level, such as crop and soil specific reductions in fertiliser inputs. Further, the results indicate that considerable leaching reductions through changes in inputs can only be achieved at a significant cost. Thus, farm infrastructure measures and training and education o f farmers, could further assist in achieving water quality objectives. The bio-economic modelling methodology used provided a consistent framework for water policy assessment in the agricultural sector, as it allowed integrating agronomic, environmental and economic information in a single framework. This was achieved at three spatial scales: the field scale capturing agronomic and environmental diversity, the farm scale that offers a better representation of farmers’ actual behaviour, and the catchment scale that allows consideration of the aggregate policy impacts. The thesis also demonstrates the complexity o f the issues involved, and highlights the challenges to be overcome

Modelling Agricultural Diffuse Pollution: CAP – WFD Interactions and Cost Effectiveness of Measures

Within the context of the Water Framework Directive (WFD) and the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), the design of effective and sustainable agricultural and water resources management policies presents multiple challenges. This paper presents a methodological framework that will be used to identify synergies and trade-offs between the CAP and the WFD in relation to their economic and water resources environmental effects, and to assess the cost-effectiveness of measures to control water pollution, in a representative case study catchment in Scotland. The approach is based on the combination of a biophysical simulation model (CropSyst) with a mathematical programming model (FSSIM-MP), so as to provide a better understanding and representation of the economic and agronomic/environmental processes that take place within the agricultural system