Competition and Irreversible Investments under Uncertainty

We examine the effect of competition on investment decisions in an industry in which each firm has a completely irreversible investment opportunity and the product market has positive externalities for a small market size and negative externalities for a large market size. In the latter case, which corresponds to the traditional competitive industries, firms invest sequentially as market profitability develops. In the former case, which corresponds to industries in which investment is mutually beneficial, firms invest simultaneously after the market's profitability has developed sufficiently to gain all network benefits and to recover the option value of waiting. These extensions of a real options analysis may help explain rapid and sudden developments such as recent Internet investment, or explain the late take-off phenomenon of prolonged start-up problems, such as the case of fax machine production.Irreversible Investments, Real Options, Network Effects

Statistical Exploration of Fragmentation Phase Space Source Sizes in Nuclear Multifragmentation

The multiplicity distributions for individual fragment Z values in nuclear multifragmentation are binomial. The extracted maximum value of the multiplicity is found to depend on Z according to m=Z_0/Z, where Z_0 is the source size. This is shown to be a strong indication of statistical coverage of fragmentation phase space. The inferred source sizes coincide with those extracted from the analysis of fixed multiplicity charge distributions.Comment: 13 pages, 4 revised figures, some revised tex

Z-dependent Barriers in Multifragmentation from Poissonian Reducibility and Thermal Scaling

We explore the natural limit of binomial reducibility in nuclear multifragmentation by constructing excitation functions for intermediate mass fragments (IMF) of a given element Z. The resulting multiplicity distributions for each window of transverse energy are Poissonian. Thermal scaling is observed in the linear Arrhenius plots made from the average multiplicity of each element. ``Emission barriers'' are extracted from the slopes of the Arrhenius plots and their possible origin is discussed.Comment: 15 pages including 4 .ps figures. Submitted to Phys. Rev. Letters. Also available at http://csa5.lbl.gov/moretto

Investment in Hospital Care Technology under Different Purchasing Rules: A Real Option Approach

In this article, we analyse the optimal investment decision in a new health care technology of a representative hospital that maximises its surplus in an uncertain environment. The new technology allows the hospital to increase the quality level of the care provided, but the investment is irreversible. The article uses the framework of the real option literature to show how the purchasing rules might influence the level of investment. We show that the investment in new technology is best incentivate within a long term contract where the number of treatments reimbursed depends on the level of investment made in the period when the technology is new. In this way, asymmetry of information does not affect the outcome of the contract. In our model in fact the purchaser can verify the level of the investment only at the end of each period but the purchasing rule has an anticipating effect on the decision to invest.Health care technologies, Medical quality, Irreversible investments, Real options

Are Workers. Enterprises Entry Policies Conventional

One of the main reasons why workers’ enterprises (WE) still represent a relevant chunk of the economy may lie in some affinities with conventional profit maximizing firms. To prove this, we compare the entry policies of WEs and conventional firms when they can decide size at entry while having to stick to it afterwards. Even though short run differences remain, a long run coincidence appears besides that under certainty. Endogenizing size and time of entry in an uncertain dynamic environment we see that WEs enter at the same trigger and size of conventional firms. Both of them wait less and choose a dimension larger than the minimum efficient scale. This may be another way to explain why WE are still an important share of the economy (Hesse and Cihàk, 2007) despite the ongoing mantra of their imminent demise.Workers’ Enterprises, Entry, Uncertainty, Rigidity

Migration Dynamics

This paper look at why most migration flows include observable jumps, a phenomenon that is in line with migration irreversibility. We have presented a real option model where the migration choice depends on both the wage differential between the host country and the country of origin, and on the probability of full integration into the host country. The optimal migration decision of an individual consists of waiting to migrate in a (coordinated) mass of individuals. The size of the migration flow depends on the behavioural characteristics of the ethnic groups: the more "sociable" they are, the larger the wave and the lower the wage differential required. The second part of the paper is devoted to calibrating the model and simulating migration flows into Italy over the last decade. The calibration can replicate the migration jumps in the short term. In particular, the calibrated model is able to project the induced labour demand elasticity level of the host country and the behavioural rationale of the migrants.Migration, Real Option, Labour Market, Network Effect