Multi-Risk Factors Behind the 2023 Kahramanmaraş (Türkiye) Earthquake Disaster

In the early hours of 6 February 2023, a magnitude 7.8 earthquake struck south-eastern Türkiye. Nine hours later, a magnitude 7.6 earthquake also rocked the region. The relatively shallow depth of the earthquakes, at about 10 km, resulted in severe shaking over a large area of Türkiye and Syria. As of 1 April 2023, the total death toll of over 57,000 (50,000 in Türkiye and 7,000 in Syria) makes this event the deadliest in modern Turkish history. In this presentation we discuss the state of knowledge of the seismic hazard and the social preconditioning factors that contributed to the tragic events in Türkiye and Syria. We show that the seismic hazard along the East Anatolian Fault, which hosted the earthquakes was well known, yet the devastating impacts indicate that the risks were not adequately considered. The earthquakes occurred during a winter storm with outdoor temperatures as low as -19 °C. They also triggered major aftershocks, several thousand landslides, dam bursts in Syria and flooding. We discuss how the multi-hazard context of the earthquakes exacerbated the impact in the hours to weeks after the main earthquakes. Additionally, we suggest that acute vulnerabilities arising from exposure, corruption and poverty led to a lack of seismic preparedness. We expand on the social factors and discuss how each contributed to amplifying the earthquake risk into the tragic disaster. We end by making recommendations on the ways forward to mitigate seismic risk through better integration of multi-hazard and multi-risk thinking, and management of social vulnerabilities

Quantifying near-field and off-fault deformation patterns of the 1992 M_w 7.3 Landers earthquake

Coseismic surface deformation in large earthquakes is typically measured using field mapping and with a range of geodetic methods (e.g., InSAR, lidar differencing, and GPS). Current methods, however, either fail to capture patterns of near-field coseismic surface deformation or lack preevent data. Consequently, the characteristics of off-fault deformation and the parameters that control it remain poorly understood. We develop a standardized method to fully measure the surface, near-field, coseismic deformation patterns at high resolution using the COSI-Corr program by correlating pairs of aerial photographs taken before and after the 1992 M_w 7.3 Landers earthquake. COSI-Corr offers the advantage of measuring displacement across the entire zone of surface deformation and over a wider aperture than that available to field geologists. For the Landers earthquake, our measured displacements are systematically larger than the field measurements, indicating the presence of off-fault deformation. We show that 46% of the total surface displacement occurred as off-fault deformation, over a mean deformation width of 154 m. The magnitude and width of off-fault deformation along the rupture is primarily controlled by the macroscopic structural complexity of the fault system, with a weak correlation with the type of near-surface materials through which the rupture propagated. Both the magnitude and width of distributed deformation are largest in stepovers, bends, and at the southern termination of the surface rupture. We find that slip along the surface rupture exhibits a consistent degree of variability at all observable length scales and that the slip distribution is self-affine fractal with dimension of 1.56

Refining the shallow slip deficit

Geodetic slip inversions for three major (M_w > 7) strike-slip earthquakes (1992 Landers, 1999 Hector Mine and 2010 El Mayor–Cucapah) show a 15–60 per cent reduction in slip near the surface (depth < 2 km) relative to the slip at deeper depths (4–6 km). This significant difference between surface coseismic slip and slip at depth has been termed the shallow slip deficit (SSD). The large magnitude of this deficit has been an enigma since it cannot be explained by shallow creep during the interseismic period or by triggered slip from nearby earthquakes. One potential explanation for the SSD is that the previous geodetic inversions lack data coverage close to surface rupture such that the shallow portions of the slip models are poorly resolved and generally underestimated. In this study, we improve the static coseismic slip inversion for these three earthquakes, especially at shallow depths, by: (1) including data capturing the near-fault deformation from optical imagery and SAR azimuth offsets; (2) refining the interferometric synthetic aperture radar processing with non-boxcar phase filtering, model-dependent range corrections, more complete phase unwrapping by SNAPHU (Statistical Non-linear Approach for Phase Unwrapping) assuming a maximum discontinuity and an on-fault correlation mask; (3) using more detailed, geologically constrained fault geometries and (4) incorporating additional campaign global positioning system (GPS) data. The refined slip models result in much smaller SSDs of 3–19 per cent. We suspect that the remaining minor SSD for these earthquakes likely reflects a combination of our elastic model's inability to fully account for near-surface deformation, which will render our estimates of shallow slip minima, and potentially small amounts of interseismic fault creep or triggered slip, which could ‘make up’ a small percentages of the coseismic SSD during the interseismic period. Our results indicate that it is imperative that slip inversions include accurate measurements of near-fault surface deformation to reliably constrain spatial patterns of slip during major strike-slip earthquakes

Refining the shallow slip deficit

Geodetic slip inversions for three major (M_w > 7) strike-slip earthquakes (1992 Landers, 1999 Hector Mine and 2010 El Mayor–Cucapah) show a 15–60 per cent reduction in slip near the surface (depth < 2 km) relative to the slip at deeper depths (4–6 km). This significant difference between surface coseismic slip and slip at depth has been termed the shallow slip deficit (SSD). The large magnitude of this deficit has been an enigma since it cannot be explained by shallow creep during the interseismic period or by triggered slip from nearby earthquakes. One potential explanation for the SSD is that the previous geodetic inversions lack data coverage close to surface rupture such that the shallow portions of the slip models are poorly resolved and generally underestimated. In this study, we improve the static coseismic slip inversion for these three earthquakes, especially at shallow depths, by: (1) including data capturing the near-fault deformation from optical imagery and SAR azimuth offsets; (2) refining the interferometric synthetic aperture radar processing with non-boxcar phase filtering, model-dependent range corrections, more complete phase unwrapping by SNAPHU (Statistical Non-linear Approach for Phase Unwrapping) assuming a maximum discontinuity and an on-fault correlation mask; (3) using more detailed, geologically constrained fault geometries and (4) incorporating additional campaign global positioning system (GPS) data. The refined slip models result in much smaller SSDs of 3–19 per cent. We suspect that the remaining minor SSD for these earthquakes likely reflects a combination of our elastic model's inability to fully account for near-surface deformation, which will render our estimates of shallow slip minima, and potentially small amounts of interseismic fault creep or triggered slip, which could ‘make up’ a small percentages of the coseismic SSD during the interseismic period. Our results indicate that it is imperative that slip inversions include accurate measurements of near-fault surface deformation to reliably constrain spatial patterns of slip during major strike-slip earthquakes

Early and persistent supershear rupture of the 2018 Mw 7.5 Palu earthquake

The speed at which an earthquake rupture propagates affects its energy balance and ground shaking impact. Dynamic models of supershear earthquakes, which are faster than the speed of shear waves, often start at subshear speed and later run faster than Eshelby’s speed. Here we present robust evidence of an early and persistent supershear rupture at the sub-Eshelby speed of the 2018 magnitude 7.5 Palu, Indonesia, earthquake. Slowness-enhanced back-projection of teleseismic data provides a sharp image of the rupture process, along a path consistent with the surface rupture trace inferred by subpixel correlation of synthetic-aperture radar and satellite optical images. The rupture propagated at a sustained velocity of 4.1 km s^(–1) from its initiation to its end, despite large fault bends. The persistent supershear speed is further validated by seismological evidence of far-field Rayleigh Mach waves. The unusual features of this earthquake probe the connections between the rupture dynamics and fault structure. An early supershear transition could be promoted by fault roughness near the hypocentre. Steady rupture propagation at a speed unexpected in homogeneous media could result from the presence of a low-velocity damaged fault zone

Rapid Scaling Up of Insecticide-Treated Bed Net Coverage in Africa and Its Relationship with Development Assistance for Health: A Systematic Synthesis of Supply, Distribution, and Household Survey Data

Stephen Lim and colleagues use several sources of data to estimate the changes in distribution of insecticide-treated bed nets across Africa between 2000 and 2008, and to analyze the link between development assistance and net coverage

Preconditioning the 2023 Kahramanmaraş (Türkiye) earthquake disaster

The 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquakes occurred on active faults that were known to be a high seismic hazard, yet the devastating impacts of these earthquakes show that the risk was not adequately considered. Vulnerabilities arising from exposure, corruption and poverty led to a lack of seismic preparedness which amplified the earthquake risk into a tragic disaster