Klasikinė politinių ekonominių ciklų paradigma ir ekonometrinis modelis Baltijos šalims

In different periods, the state plaid different roles in economic development. The 20th c. is marked by extremely rapid economic development: in the end of the last century, OECD countries distributed almost half of gross domestic product generated. It might be stated that economical influence of government significantly increased thus increasing the opportunities of politicians to use it: ruling parties are prone to stimulate economic growth before the elections in order to win elections. Mentioned possibilities of politicians to manipulate by economic policy before the election became a subject of scientific studies after the publication of articles by W. Nordhaus and A. Lindbeck in 1970‘s, that are considered as the beginning of formation of paradigms of political economic circles. The objective of the article is to discuss this formation of paradigms of political economic circles, and deliver econometric model which might help to check the possibilities of existing political economic circles in Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia. In the first part of the article, the authors consistently overview the formation of paradigm of political economic circles up to the critique of rational expectations and after it. The second part deliver econometric model aimed at identifying possibilities of existing political economic circles. Similar institutional structure of the Baltic states enabled authors offering one model for all three countries. This model’s advantage is the presumption that circles of gross domestic product, inflation, and unemployment are connected by regressive links: the influence of macroeconomic fluctuations on calculation results is eliminated. The presumption is based on the experience of the Baltic countries in 1990’s

Lithuanian export competitveness before economic recession

The research paper discusses the concept of competitiveness of economy and analyzes export as an indicator of it. The analysis is started by the historical review of export development. Statistical data show that three Baltic countries have been following different path of export growth since Russian crisis. Different export market orientation and manufacturing sector’s longer reorientation process provide an explanation. Furthermore, the historical analysis shows that export growth relation with foreign demand growth and GDP growth is not as strong as it might be expected. In order to estimate possible long-run GDP growth prospects, the structural analysis of trade is performed. The conclusions of the latter revealed high dependence of trade on conjuncture in foreign markets and supported the need of further price and non-price competitiveness analysis. Surprisingly, the results of the former indicate that price indicators do little to explain export development. Conversely, the results of the latter, based on CMSA methodology, show that market orientation of Lithuanian exports adds the most to its competitiveness; meanwhile the product orientation is generally unfavorable. Finally, the relation between FDI structure by countries and trade flows of processed industrial supplies is analyzed. Although data analysis does not reject the existence of such hypothesis, a more detail analysis should be conducted in the future

Politiniai verslo ciklai Lietuvoje 1993-2006 m

The state's role in the economy increased sharply in the twentieth century. The huge expansion of the state's role in the economy has made it possible for politicians to manipulate the economy in the runup to elections in order to achieve better short-term macroeconomic indicators and win the elections. The purpose of this article is to conceptualise the paradigm of political business cycles and to check the feasibility of political business cycles in Lithuania. The research is based on two ARMAX-type econometric models. The models brought two different results: the first, so-called Klein's model, did not find any political business cycles in Lithuania, while the other, formed by the authors, found some evidence of opportunistic political business cycles in Lithuania. The latter model's results show that politicians start manipulating economic policy between four and eight quarters before elections. That can be explained by the rational behaviour of politicians: the lags of the economic policy effects on the domestic economy are evaluated with due competence

Lithuanian export competitiveness before economic recession

The research paper discusses the concept of competitiveness of economy and analyzes export as an indicator of it. The analysis is started by the historical review of export development. Statistical data show that three Baltic countries have been following different path of export growth since Russian crisis. Different export market orientation and manufacturing sector’s longer reorientation process provide an explanation. Furthermore, the historical analysis shows that export growth relation with foreign demand growth and GDP growth is not as strong as it might be expected. In order to estimate possible long-run GDP growth prospects, the structural analysis of trade is performed. The conclusions of the latter revealed high dependence of trade on conjuncture in foreign markets and supported the need of further price and non-price competitiveness analysis. Surprisingly, the results of the former indicate that price indicators do little to explain export development. Conversely, the results of the latter, based on CMSA methodology, show that market orientation of Lithuanian exports adds the most to its competitiveness; meanwhile the product orientation is generally unfavorable. Finally, the relation between FDI structure by countries and trade flows of processed industrial supplies is analyzed. Although data analysis does not reject the existence of such hypothesis, a more detail analysis should be conducted in the future

Macro strategy formation of state governance

The authors investigate the world processes showing the impact of those processes on the nation state and try to define the formation of the state’s gover nance strategy. The article deals with the following questions: What impact do the world processes have on the development of the nation state? How to define the state as an object of strategic governance and to identify state goals? How to define the state as a subject of strategic governance and to identify the state’s institutional structure? How to validate the logic of the state’s strategy formation? Globalization as an objective world process could be interpreted as the external environment of the nation state. When the nation state face globalization, the latter raises a question: do global and regional interaction models change the conception of sovereignty in such a way that it could be understand as divided among a lot of institutions such as national, regional and international? Due to globalization change the interrelations between state and market. In the sense of strategic gover nance globalization erases boundaries distinguishing domestic and foreign policies, it changes the context of the nation state as well as the decision-making conditions. With reference to the strategic management theories of organizations the authors of the article try to substantiate the object of strategic management and the subject of an organization. Such a definition gives a possibility to investigate more precisely the object and subject of the state’s strategic governance.When the state is defined as an object of strategic governance then other parts of that object are analyzed: for instance, the idea of state, nation, territory, sovereignty, nationality. The mentioned parts are the fundamental components of the nation state as a strategic object. It is clear that interrelations among them are very close. Also these criteria determine the state’s strategic goals. The state as a strategic subject of governance should be analyzed with reference to the state’s constitutional model which explains the functions and competence of state institutions. The impact of external environment on the state’s power and state institutions as well as on particular objects also needs to be analyzed. The formation of the state’s governance strategy should refer to three types of factors. One of these types is fixed factors such as culture, geographic location, topography, history, and climate conditions. These factors also show particular conditions and kinds of resource necessary for strategy formation. Due to those fixed factors there cannot exist two identical strategies. Other conditions appear as a result of fixed factors. The second group of other important factors consists of private and public market institutions, economical structure and ownership. Flexible factors make the third group, i.e. monetary and fiscal policy, international relations, tax system and etc. It is evident that fixed factors are crucial for the formation of state strategy

Klasikinė politinių ekonominių ciklų paradigma ir ekonometrinis modelis Baltijos šalims

Straipsnyje nagrinėjamas politinių ekonominių ciklų paradigmos formavimasis, pristatomi pirmosios kartos politinių ekonominių ciklų modeliai, ir pateikiamas ekonometrinis modelis, skirtas politinių ekonominių ciklų galimam egzistavimui Baltijos šalyse ištirtiThe article analyses the formation of the political business cycle paradigm, introduces the models of first-generation political (business) cycles, and provides a model for the econometric calculations in Baltic StatesMA Ekonomikos institutasVytauto Didžiojo universiteta

Lithuanian export competitiveness before economic recession

The research paper discusses the concept of competitiveness of economy and analyzes export as an indicator of it. The analysis is started by the historical review of export development. Statistical data show that three Baltic countries have been following different path of export growth since Russian crisis. Different export market orientation and manufacturing sector's longer reorientation process provide an explanation. Furthermore, the historical analysis shows that export growth relation with foreign demand growth and GDP growth is not as strong as it might be expected. In order to estimate possible long-run GDP growth prospects, the structural analysis of trade is performed. The conclusions of the latter revealed high dependence of trade on conjuncture in foreign markets and supported the need of further price and non-price competitiveness analysis. Surprisingly, the results of the former indicate that price indicators do little to explain export development. Conversely, the results of the latter, based on CMSA methodology, show that market orientation of Lithuanian exports adds the most to its competitiveness; meanwhile the product orientation is generally unfavorable. Finally, the relation between FDI structure by countries and trade flows of processed industrial supplies is analyzed. Although data analysis does not reject the existence of such hypothesis, a more detail analysis should be conducted in the futureEkonomikos katedraVytauto Didžiojo universiteta

Macro strategy formation of state governance

Straipsnyje yra analizuojama valstybės išorinė aplinka, valstybės samprata ir jos tikslai. Tyrinėjamas valstybės strateginio valdymo teorijų objektas ir subjektas. Valstybė yra identifikuojama kaip strateginio valdymo objektas ir subjektas, autoriai pateikia strateginio valdymo makro strategijos logikos pagrindimąThe article deals with external and domestic environment of the state, analyses the notion of the state and its goals. The authors identify the goals of the state and investigate the object and subject of strategic management theories as separate strategic management schools differently understand the object and subject of strategic management. The state is identified as the object and subject of strategic governance and there is introduced the logic of macro strategic governanceMA Ekonomikos institutasVytauto Didžiojo universiteta

Estimations of the financial support model for tertiary education in Lithuania

The article is about a very actual issue on the reform of the Lithuanian higher education (LHE) system and the sponsorship model which is one of the most important elements. It is assumed that the aim of the LHE sponsorship model is to provide the higher education system with adequate financial sources that would ensure an appropriate quality and extent of studies and researches. The article contains the review on foreign experience regarding the sponsorship of higher education and evaluation of its advantages and disadvantages. It is noted that the main advantage of the American model is the clear inducement reasoned by the academic market for the competition between the institutions of higher education; the disadvantage, which is the advantage of the Scandinavian model, is the limitation on approachability of studies. It is stated that more and more countries that used to finance the higher education from the budget changes this model to a mixed one which promotes the involvement of students into sponsorship of their studies. Moreover, the article contains a critical review on various LHE sponsorship models proposed by different institutions, the motivation analysis of LHE objects and its adjustment mechanism. The article proposes and reasons the new LHE sponsorship model that intends to solve the following issues: the ensured approachability of studies, increased competition between the institution of higher education, students' motivation, efficient use of the finance and the provision of various financial sources

Estimations of the financial support model for tertiary education in Lithuania

Straipsnis skiriamas itin aktualiai Lietuvos aukštojo mokslo sistemos pertvarkos problematikai, gilesniam žvilgsniui į vieną iš svarbiausių, atraminį šios sistemos elementą – jos finansavimo modelį. Straipsnyje apžvelgiama užsienio šalių aukštojo mokslo finansavimo patirtis ir kaitos tendencijos. Pateikiama išsami kritinė įvairių institucijų siūlomų Lietuvos aukštojo mokslo finansavimo modelių apžvalga, įvertinami jų trūkumai ir pranašumai. Daug dėmesio skiriama aukštojo mokslo sistemos subjektų motyvacijai ir jų derinimosi mechanizmui. Straipsnyje siūlomas ir pagrindžiamas naujas Lietuvos aukštojo mokslo sistemos finansavimo modelis, skatinantis visų suinteresuotųjų – visuomenės (valstybės), aukštųjų mokyklų, studentų ir darbdavių – dalyvavimą gerinant aukštojo mokslo kokybę ir derinant jo paklausą su pasiūlaThe present conditions of economic and social welfare and the pace of their development are highly influenced by the available „human capital“, especially its quality. Unfortunately, there is enough evidence that the competence of Lithuanian graduates is hardly sufficient to meet either present or future requirements of the labour market. The insufficient quality of university studies has opened a deep breach between the offers and the demands of labour market. The „accidental“ choice of study programmes and low motivation of students combined with insufficient financial resources and rather poor facilities are important factors of such gap. The lack of competition between tertiary education institutions in terms of quality of the their students and graduates is another key factor of deficiency of the higher education system in Lithuania. This paper examines the Lithuanian system of tertiary education with the aim to reveal the roots of its deficiencies and offer a new financial model for tertiary education that may solve many of the existing problems. To achieve this goal, the main global trends in the development of higher education financial support models are reviewed, competition factors operating in tertiary education institutions are evaluated, sources and instruments for the financial support of tertiary education and scientific research are analysed in the paper. The suggested model is based on the assumption that the main responsibility of the state is to ensure accessibility of studies for capable individuals regardless of their social status. It is argued here that instead of state set study costs per student in various study programmes, the accessibility of studies must be controlled by the state-stipulated fixed minimum amount of financial support available to all students.[...]MA Ekonomikos institutasVilniaus universitetas, [email protected] Didžiojo universiteta