The Nexus Between Institutional Quality and Inflation in Emerging Markets: A Panel Causality Test with a Fourier Function

It is important to note that institutional quality has a substantial impact on a country's long-term economic growth, which influences other economic indicators, such as inflation and monetary policy. An in-depth examination of the existence of this crucial relationship was conducted by applying a novel and robust panel Yilanci Gorus Fourier causality test between 2000 and 2019 to 24 developing countries, in order to detect this relationship. A recent inflation rate, the standard deviation of inflation, and sound money are all interconnected and mutually causally related to property rights and the quality of the legal system. Weakness in institutions can exacerbate financial shocks, thereby affecting monetary indicators, and monetary policies will deteriorate the quality of the institution as a result

The Capital Structure Determinants on Banking Sector of Western Balkan Countries

The study examines the capital structure of the Western Balkan banking industry across the period 2015 - 2020. Forty-seven of the total Western Balkan-based commercial banks were included in the study. By constructing a balanced panel, this study uses pooled ordinary least squares fixed and random effects regressions to examine the relationship between bank book leverage as the dependent variable and bank-specific explanatory variables that include profitability, leverage ratio, bank size, earnings volatility, collateral, growth opportunities, and liquidity. These reports are examined using linear regression analysis. The study shows a significant positive relationship between profitability and book leverage for the period studied. In contrast, leverage ratio, earnings volatility, collateral, growth, and liquidity significantly negatively impact the book leverage of Western Balkan banks. The findings have practical implications for bank executives. They will assist them in identifying the bank-specific factors that influence the capital structure and selecting values that promote optimal capital structure. The findings of this study can help regulators develop an effective prudential framework. This study opens up new avenues for further research in this area for academics, researchers, and analysts

Time-Varying and Quantile-Based Relationship among Geopolitical Risks, Oil and Gold Prices

This paper probes the relationship between geopolitical risks (GPR), WTI oil, and gold prices utilizing the time-varying causality and quantile regression approaches. The sample period spans from January 1986 to January 2022, comprising 433 monthly observations and representing the longest common period of data availability. The results show that there is no causality between the pairs of GPR–WTI, and GPR–gold prices for the full sample period, while the causality between gold and WTI is unidirectional, running from gold to WTI. Using the rolling causality test, however, the findings show that the dynamic causal relations strengthen over time. The Granger causality from the gold prices to GPR and WTI is stronger than the other way around, suggesting that the gold market dominates the other two variables in terms of strength of the lead-lag structure of causality. Besides, the findings reveal the strongest causation effects between GPR and WTI spot prices. Before 2009, the causal relationship between WTI and GPR is mostly unidirectional while also a bidirectional linkage emerges, coinciding with the crisis periods including the Dot-Com and 2007 US Subprime crises. During the causal periods, these variables respond negatively to changes in others. For the COVID19 period, the direction of causality considerably changes in favor of WTI for the GPR–WTI pair whereas it is unchanged for the WTI–gold pair. The results indicate that WTI has positive and negative predictive powers for GPR and gold while it receives negative and positive causation effects from GPR and gold during the pandemic, respectively. The results, in overall, may offer important insights for investors and regulatory authorities in building portfolio and risk management strategies as well as pricing and trading activities and constructing monetary policies over various market conditions

An Investigation of the Influence of Economic Growth on Taxes in Lithuania

The level of economic interstate competition has been growing significantly in recent decades. Countries are constantly trying to apply lower tax rates to attract large businesses to their territory. They are also trying to improve the efficiency of tax collection on their area of jurisdiction. The paper examines how economic growth affects Lithuania’s tax collections. Based on quarterly data of the 2002–2022 period, ARDL models for the main types of taxes were considered. We find that for all types of taxes, the models have the same structure, which allows comparing the impact of gross domestic product on tax collections both in the short term and in the long term. Analysis showed that the largest reserves are in the corporate sector, where the growth in tax revenues exceeds gross domestic product growth by 115%. The long-term effect for general taxes is almost 19% higher than the growth of the tax base, that is, the Lithuanian economy as a whole has a tendency for a reduction of the shadow economy, which means that there are significant opportunities for further growth

Testing Convergence of Fiscal Policies in Regions of Turkiye

The presence of convergence in the fiscal policies implemented at the national level in order to eliminate regional inequalities is an indication that the resources are rationally distributed among the regions and the differences are decreasing. From this point of view, in this study, it is aimed to investigate the convergence of the fiscal policy implemented in the period of 2004:01-2020:12 in Turkey within the scope of the fiscal purpose of taxes. In the study, nonlinear convergence analysis was performed, but linear convergence analysis was used because the linearity hypothesis could not be rejected. According to the findings, there is an absolute convergence between the regions in the fiscal policy implemented in Turkey. However, in terms of regions, the first region is differentiated from other five regions, while the other regions are very close to each other. Regarding this, it may be possible to bring the first region and the other five regions closer to each other by reducing the difference with the arrangements to be made in taxation policies. The obtained findings offer important implications for policy makers

The Relationship Between Geopolitical Risk and Credit Default Swap Premium: Evidence from Turkey*

This study investigates the relationship between the geopolitical risk in Turkey arising out of the war and terror incidents happened in the region during the period 2003:01-2020:06 with the CDS premium. A two-step approach is undertaken for this assessment, in which an ARDL limit test and then a time-varying symmetric and asymmetric causality test are applied to study the possible causality vis-a-vis the subperiods. The ARDL limit test does not reject the hypothesis that there is a co-integrated relationship between CDS premium and geopolitical risk index. In addition, the time-varying symmetric and asymmetric test also identifies causality between CDS premium and geopolitical risk, and establishes periods where the latter influences the former variable both in a positive and negative way. In summary, both the ARDL limit test and the time-varying symmetric and asymmetric test deduce a causal relationship between the studied variables

Baltic Dry Index Estimation With NARX Neural Network Model

BDI is a global trade indicator followed by those interested in maritime trade. But it has volatility, seasonality, and uncertain cyclicality. For this reason, in this study, the BDI has been estimated to provide preliminary information to those interested in maritime trade. NARX Neural Network which performs successfully in complex and nonlinear real-life problems is used. In addition, the NARX neural network model has not been found in a previous study used for BDI estimation. Eleven independent variables are used in this study, what increases the predictive power. Independent variables are Bloomberg Commodities Index (BCOM), Twitter-Based Economic Uncertainty Index (TEU), Twitter-Based Market Uncertainty Index (TMU), S&P 500 Index, MSCI World Index, €/$ Parity, VIX (CBOE), US 10-Year Bond Yield (%), Brent Oil (USD/Barrel), Economic Uncertainty Index and World Trade Volume (USD Billion). The Twitter-Based Economic Uncertainty Index (TEU) and Twitter-Based Market Uncertainty Index (TMU), which were not used before in BDI estimation studies, were included in the analysis and contributed to the literature. The data set contains daily data for the period 9.07.2012–31.08.2020. 11-day estimate values covering 1.09.2020–15.09.2020 are calculated. MAPE, MAE and RMSE performance criteria were calculated for the estimation values. Value of MAPE (2.96%), value of MAE (36.6%) and value of RMSE (46.68) were obtained. As a result, the estimate values were compared with the actual values

Optimization of Media Strategy via Marketing Mix Modeling in Retailing

 The paper describes the marketing mix modeling results for companies in nonfood retailing. The main objectives of the research are to demonstrate the viable way of making effective recommendations for optimizing the media strategy by modeling offline and online traffic to the stores based on econometric modeling and to develop a decision support system, which enhance the effective growth of business KPIs and an effective decision-making process. Econometric modeling, deeper data analysis, decision support were implemented on the data of one of the main retailers in Ukraine in a period before the full-scale Russian invasion. Estimating the impact of different communication channels on business results made basis for ROI calculations and optimization of media investments allocation among media channels by periods, video durations, type of advertising and with optimal weekly media pressure. ROMI calculation was based on the results of regression modeling, which estimate the level of traffic and sales generated by each media channel. The information-analytical decision support system based on an interactive dashboard has been developed for improvement of day-by-day business planning and management. The developed framework of regional strategy selection facilitates to the formation of a strategic vision on a regional scale and improves the quality of a regional media strategy

SOE Corporate Governance Reform in Lithuania - Explained & Еmpirically Tested

Following previous research on management efficiency of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in Lithuania, this paper continues previous discussion via extension of the observed time period seeking to continuously analyze the impact of corporate governance principles to the management effectiveness of Lithuanian SOEs.For the purpose of this study, elements of corporate governance principles established in the initial reform of the SOEs in Lithuania are used as key dependent variables to measure and quantify the dynamics of corporate governance culture and its impact to the management efficiency of SOEs. Analysis performed is of a special importance as it covers the 10-year period (2010–2020) and could serve as a case study in analyzing practical implications of managerialism principles in public sector and SOEs specifically.New public management paradigm (Politt, 1993) combined with policy learning theory (Bennett, Howlett, 1992) are used as the theoretical background to explain the initiation and logical framework of SOE reform as well as the selection of variables used in this study. Additionally, principles of corporate governance established by OECD and other international organizations (OECD, 2015) are also used to enrich the analytical framework.The results of the analysis do not only prove that the implementation of corporate governance principles has a positive influence on the efficiency of management of SOEs, but also reveals additional factors that were not identified in the previous research – this impact is not static, but rather dynamic changing in accordance with the maturity of managerial practices within SOEs. The revealed dynamic nature of effects of the SOE policy should lead to the continuation of research seeking to expand it both geographically and vertically including other governmental organizations into the scope of future research