Noninvasive Diagnosis of Portal Hypertension in Patients With Compensated Advanced Chronic Liver Disease

INTRODUCTION: We aimed to explore the prevalence of portal hypertension in the most common etiologies of patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) and develop classification rules, based on liver stiffness measurement (LSM), that could be readily used to diagnose or exclude clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH) in clinical practice. METHODS: This is an international cohort study including patients with paired LSM/hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG), LSM ≥10 kPa, and no previous decompensation. Portal hypertension was defined by an HVPG >5 mm Hg. A positive predictive value ≥90% was considered to validate LSM cutoffs for CSPH (HVPG ≥10 mm Hg), whereas a negative predictive value ≥90% ruled out CSPH. RESULTS: A total of 836 patients with hepatitis C (n = 358), nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH, n = 248), alcohol use (n = 203), and hepatitis B (n = 27) were evaluated. Portal hypertension prevalence was >90% in all cACLD etiologies, except for patients with NASH (60.9%), being even lower in obese patients with NASH (53.3%); these lower prevalences of portal hypertension in patients with NASH were maintained across different strata of LSM values. LSM ≥25 kPa was the best cutoff to rule in CSPH in alcoholic liver disease, chronic hepatitis B, chronic hepatitis C, and nonobese patients with NASH, whereas in obese NASH patients, the positive predictive value was only 62.8%. A new model for patients with NASH (ANTICIPATE-NASH model) to predict CSPH considering body mass index, LSM, and platelet count was developed, and a nomogram was constructed. LSM ≤15 kPa plus platelets ≥150 × 10/L ruled out CSPH in most etiologies. DISCUSSION: Patients with cACLD of NASH etiology, especially obese patients with NASH, present lower prevalences of portal hypertension compared with other cACLD etiologies. LSM ≥25 kPa is sufficient to rule in CSPH in most etiologies, including nonobese patients with NASH, but not in obese patients with NASH

Inborn errors of OAS-RNase L in SARS-CoV-2-related multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children

Multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C) is a rare and severe condition that follows benign COVID-19. We report autosomal recessive deficiencies of OAS1, OAS2, or RNASEL in five unrelated children with MIS-C. The cytosolic double-stranded RNA (dsRNA)-sensing OAS1 and OAS2 generate 2'-5'-linked oligoadenylates (2-5A) that activate the single-stranded RNA-degrading ribonuclease L (RNase L). Monocytic cell lines and primary myeloid cells with OAS1, OAS2, or RNase L deficiencies produce excessive amounts of inflammatory cytokines upon dsRNA or severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) stimulation. Exogenous 2-5A suppresses cytokine production in OAS1-deficient but not RNase L-deficient cells. Cytokine production in RNase L-deficient cells is impaired by MDA5 or RIG-I deficiency and abolished by mitochondrial antiviral-signaling protein (MAVS) deficiency. Recessive OAS-RNase L deficiencies in these patients unleash the production of SARS-CoV-2-triggered, MAVS-mediated inflammatory cytokines by mononuclear phagocytes, thereby underlying MIS-C

Rare predicted loss-of-function variants of type I IFN immunity genes are associated with life-threatening COVID-19

Background: We previously reported that impaired type I IFN activity, due to inborn errors of TLR3- and TLR7-dependent type I interferon (IFN) immunity or to autoantibodies against type I IFN, account for 15–20% of cases of life-threatening COVID-19 in unvaccinated patients. Therefore, the determinants of life-threatening COVID-19 remain to be identified in ~ 80% of cases. Methods: We report here a genome-wide rare variant burden association analysis in 3269 unvaccinated patients with life-threatening COVID-19, and 1373 unvaccinated SARS-CoV-2-infected individuals without pneumonia. Among the 928 patients tested for autoantibodies against type I IFN, a quarter (234) were positive and were excluded. Results: No gene reached genome-wide significance. Under a recessive model, the most significant gene with at-risk variants was TLR7, with an OR of 27.68 (95%CI 1.5–528.7, P = 1.1 × 10−4) for biochemically loss-of-function (bLOF) variants. We replicated the enrichment in rare predicted LOF (pLOF) variants at 13 influenza susceptibility loci involved in TLR3-dependent type I IFN immunity (OR = 3.70[95%CI 1.3–8.2], P = 2.1 × 10−4). This enrichment was further strengthened by (1) adding the recently reported TYK2 and TLR7 COVID-19 loci, particularly under a recessive model (OR = 19.65[95%CI 2.1–2635.4], P = 3.4 × 10−3), and (2) considering as pLOF branchpoint variants with potentially strong impacts on splicing among the 15 loci (OR = 4.40[9%CI 2.3–8.4], P = 7.7 × 10−8). Finally, the patients with pLOF/bLOF variants at these 15 loci were significantly younger (mean age [SD] = 43.3 [20.3] years) than the other patients (56.0 [17.3] years; P = 1.68 × 10−5). Conclusions: Rare variants of TLR3- and TLR7-dependent type I IFN immunity genes can underlie life-threatening COVID-19, particularly with recessive inheritance, in patients under 60 years old

Autoantibodies neutralizing type I IFNs are present in ~4% of uninfected individuals over 70 years old and account for ~20% of COVID-19 deaths

Circulating autoantibodies (auto-Abs) neutralizing high concentrations (10 ng/ml; in plasma diluted 1:10) of IFN-α and/or IFN-ω are found in about 10% of patients with critical COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) pneumonia but not in individuals with asymptomatic infections. We detect auto-Abs neutralizing 100-fold lower, more physiological, concentrations of IFN-α and/or IFN-ω (100 pg/ml; in 1:10 dilutions of plasma) in 13.6% of 3595 patients with critical COVID-19, including 21% of 374 patients >80 years, and 6.5% of 522 patients with severe COVID-19. These antibodies are also detected in 18% of the 1124 deceased patients (aged 20 days to 99 years; mean: 70 years). Moreover, another 1.3% of patients with critical COVID-19 and 0.9% of the deceased patients have auto-Abs neutralizing high concentrations of IFN-β. We also show, in a sample of 34,159 uninfected individuals from the general population, that auto-Abs neutralizing high concentrations of IFN-α and/or IFN-ω are present in 0.18% of individuals between 18 and 69 years, 1.1% between 70 and 79 years, and 3.4% >80 years. Moreover, the proportion of individuals carrying auto-Abs neutralizing lower concentrations is greater in a subsample of 10,778 uninfected individuals: 1% of individuals 80 years. By contrast, auto-Abs neutralizing IFN-β do not become more frequent with age. Auto-Abs neutralizing type I IFNs predate SARS-CoV-2 infection and sharply increase in prevalence after the age of 70 years. They account for about 20% of both critical COVID-19 cases in the over 80s and total fatal COVID-19 cases

Autoantibodies neutralizing type I IFNs are present in ~4% of uninfected individuals over 70 years old and account for ~20% of COVID-19 deaths

Circulating autoantibodies (auto-Abs) neutralizing high concentrations (10 ng/ml; in plasma diluted 1:10) of IFN-α and/or IFN-ω are found in about 10% of patients with critical COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) pneumonia but not in individuals with asymptomatic infections. We detect auto-Abs neutralizing 100-fold lower, more physiological, concentrations of IFN-α and/or IFN-ω (100 pg/ml; in 1:10 dilutions of plasma) in 13.6% of 3595 patients with critical COVID-19, including 21% of 374 patients >80 years, and 6.5% of 522 patients with severe COVID-19. These antibodies are also detected in 18% of the 1124 deceased patients (aged 20 days to 99 years; mean: 70 years). Moreover, another 1.3% of patients with critical COVID-19 and 0.9% of the deceased patients have auto-Abs neutralizing high concentrations of IFN-β. We also show, in a sample of 34,159 uninfected individuals from the general population, that auto-Abs neutralizing high concentrations of IFN-α and/or IFN-ω are present in 0.18% of individuals between 18 and 69 years, 1.1% between 70 and 79 years, and 3.4% >80 years. Moreover, the proportion of individuals carrying auto-Abs neutralizing lower concentrations is greater in a subsample of 10,778 uninfected individuals: 1% of individuals <70 years, 2.3% between 70 and 80 years, and 6.3% >80 years. By contrast, auto-Abs neutralizing IFN-β do not become more frequent with age. Auto-Abs neutralizing type I IFNs predate SARS-CoV-2 infection and sharply increase in prevalence after the age of 70 years. They account for about 20% of both critical COVID-19 cases in the over 80s and total fatal COVID-19 cases. © 2021 The Authors, some rights reserved

Characteristics and outcomes of an international cohort of 600 000 hospitalized patients with COVID-19

Background: We describe demographic features, treatments and clinical outcomes in the International Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infection Consortium (ISARIC) COVID-19 cohort, one of the world’s largest international, standardized data sets concerning hospitalized patients. Methods: The data set analysed includes COVID-19 patients hospitalized between January 2020 and January 2022 in 52 countries. We investigated how symptoms on admission, co-morbidities, risk factors and treatments varied by age, sex and other characteristics. We used Cox regression models to investigate associations between demographics, symptoms, co-morbidities and other factors with risk of death, admission to an intensive care unit (ICU) and invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV). Results: Data were available for 689 572 patients with laboratory-confirmed (91.1%) or clinically diagnosed (8.9%) SARS-CoV-2 infection from 52 countries. Age [adjusted hazard ratio per 10 years 1.49 (95% CI 1.48, 1.49)] and male sex [1.23 (1.21, 1.24)] were associated with a higher risk of death. Rates of admission to an ICU and use of IMV increased with age up to age 60 years then dropped. Symptoms, co-morbidities and treatments varied by age and had varied associations with clinical outcomes. The case-fatality ratio varied by country partly due to differences in the clinical characteristics of recruited patients and was on average 21.5%. Conclusions: Age was the strongest determinant of risk of death, with a ~30-fold difference between the oldest and youngest groups; each of the co-morbidities included was associated with up to an almost 2-fold increase in risk. Smoking and obesity were also associated with a higher risk of death. The size of our international database and the standardized data collection method make this study a comprehensive international description of COVID-19 clinical features. Our findings may inform strategies that involve prioritization of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 who have a higher risk of death

Thrombotic and hemorrhagic complications of COVID-19 in adults hospitalized in high-income countries compared with those in adults hospitalized in low- and middle-income countries in an international registry

Background: COVID-19 has been associated with a broad range of thromboembolic, ischemic, and hemorrhagic complications (coagulopathy complications). Most studies have focused on patients with severe disease from high-income countries (HICs). Objectives: The main aims were to compare the frequency of coagulopathy complications in developing countries (low- and middle-income countries [LMICs]) with those in HICs, delineate the frequency across a range of treatment levels, and determine associations with in-hospital mortality. Methods: Adult patients enrolled in an observational, multinational registry, the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infections COVID-19 study, between January 1, 2020, and September 15, 2021, met inclusion criteria, including admission to a hospital for laboratory-confirmed, acute COVID-19 and data on complications and survival. The advanced-treatment cohort received care, such as admission to the intensive care unit, mechanical ventilation, or inotropes or vasopressors; the basic-treatment cohort did not receive any of these interventions. Results: The study population included 495,682 patients from 52 countries, with 63% from LMICs and 85% in the basic treatment cohort. The frequency of coagulopathy complications was higher in HICs (0.76%-3.4%) than in LMICs (0.09%-1.22%). Complications were more frequent in the advanced-treatment cohort than in the basic-treatment cohort. Coagulopathy complications were associated with increased in-hospital mortality (odds ratio, 1.58; 95% CI, 1.52-1.64). The increased mortality associated with these complications was higher in LMICs (58.5%) than in HICs (35.4%). After controlling for coagulopathy complications, treatment intensity, and multiple other factors, the mortality was higher among patients in LMICs than among patients in HICs (odds ratio, 1.45; 95% CI, 1.39-1.51). Conclusion: In a large, international registry of patients hospitalized for COVID-19, coagulopathy complications were more frequent in HICs than in LMICs (developing countries). Increased mortality associated with coagulopathy complications was of a greater magnitude among patients in LMICs. Additional research is needed regarding timely diagnosis of and intervention for coagulation derangements associated with COVID-19, particularly for limited-resource settings

At-admission prediction of mortality and pulmonary embolism in an international cohort of hospitalised patients with COVID-19 using statistical and machine learning methods

By September 2022, more than 600 million cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection have been reported globally, resulting in over 6.5 million deaths. COVID-19 mortality risk estimators are often, however, developed with small unrepresentative samples and with methodological limitations. It is highly important to develop predictive tools for pulmonary embolism (PE) in COVID-19 patients as one of the most severe preventable complications of COVID-19. Early recognition can help provide life-saving targeted anti-coagulation therapy right at admission. Using a dataset of more than 800,000 COVID-19 patients from an international cohort, we propose a cost-sensitive gradient-boosted machine learning model that predicts occurrence of PE and death at admission. Logistic regression, Cox proportional hazards models, and Shapley values were used to identify key predictors for PE and death. Our prediction model had a test AUROC of 75.9% and 74.2%, and sensitivities of 67.5% and 72.7% for PE and all-cause mortality respectively on a highly diverse and held-out test set. The PE prediction model was also evaluated on patients in UK and Spain separately with test results of 74.5% AUROC, 63.5% sensitivity and 78.9% AUROC, 95.7% sensitivity. Age, sex, region of admission, comorbidities (chronic cardiac and pulmonary disease, dementia, diabetes, hypertension, cancer, obesity, smoking), and symptoms (any, confusion, chest pain, fatigue, headache, fever, muscle or joint pain, shortness of breath) were the most important clinical predictors at admission. Age, overall presence of symptoms, shortness of breath, and hypertension were found to be key predictors for PE using our extreme gradient boosted model. This analysis based on the, until now, largest global dataset for this set of problems can inform hospital prioritisation policy and guide long term clinical research and decision-making for COVID-19 patients globally. Our machine learning model developed from an international cohort can serve to better regulate hospital risk prioritisation of at-risk patients. © The Author(s) 2024