Four-dimensional variational data assimilation for inverse modeling of atmospheric methane emissions: Analysis of SCIAMACHY observations

Recent observations from the Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Chartography (SCIAMACHY) instrument aboard ENVISAT have brought new insights in the global distribution of atmospheric methane. In particular, the observations showed higher methane concentrations in the tropics than previously assumed. Here, we analyze the SCIAMACHY observations and their implications for emission estimates in detail using a four-dimensional variational (4D-Var) data assimilation system. We focus on the period September to November 2003 and on the South American continent, for which the satellite observations showed the largest deviations from model simulations. In this set-up the advantages of the 4D-Var approach and the zooming capability of the underlying TM5 atmospheric transport model are fully exploited. After application of a latitude-dependent bias correction to the SCIAMACHY observations, the assimilation system is able to accurately fit those observations, while retaining consistency with a network of surface methane measurements. The main emission increments resulting from the inversion are an increase in the tropics, a decrease in South Asia, and a decrease at northern hemispheric high latitudes. The SCIAMACHY observations yield considerable additional emission uncertainty reduction, particularly in the (sub-)tropical regions, which are poorly constrained by the surface network. For tropical South America, the inversion suggests more than a doubling of emissions compared to the a priori during the 3 months considered. Extensive sensitivity experiments, in which key assumptions of the inversion set-up are varied, show that this finding is robust. Independent airborne observations in the Amazon basin support the presence of considerable local methane sources. However, these observations also indicate that emissions from eastern South America may be smaller than estimated from SCIAMACHY observations. In this respect it must be realized that the bias correction applied to the satellite observations does not take into account potential regional systematic errors, which - if identified in the future - will lead to shifts in the overall distribution of emission estimates

Four-dimensional variational data assimilation for inverse modelling of atmospheric methane emissions: method and comparison with synthesis inversion

A four-dimensional variational (4D-Var) data assimilation system for inverse modelling of atmospheric methane emissions is presented. The system is based on the TM5 atmospheric transport model. It can be used for assimilating large volumes of measurements, in particular satellite observations and quasi-continuous in-situ observations, and at the same time it enables the optimization of a large number of model parameters, specifically grid-scale emission rates. Furthermore, the variational method allows to estimate uncertainties in posterior emissions. Here, the system is applied to optimize monthly methane emissions over a 1-year time window on the basis of surface observations from the NOAA-ESRL network. The results are rigorously compared with an analogous inversion by Bergamaschi et al. (2007), which was based on the traditional synthesis approach. The posterior emissions as well as their uncertainties obtained in both inversions show a high degree of consistency. At the same time we illustrate the advantage of 4D-Var in reducing aggregation errors by optimizing emissions at the grid scale of the transport model. The full potential of the assimilation system is exploited in Meirink et al. (2008), who use satellite observations of column-averaged methane mixing ratios to optimize emissions at high spatial resolution, taking advantage of the zooming capability of the TM5 model

What can 14 CO measurements tell us about OH?

The possible use of 14CO measurements to constrain hydroxyl radical (OH) concentrations in the atmosphere is investigated. 14CO is mainly produced in the upper atmosphere from cosmic radiation. Measurements of 14CO at the surface show lower concentrations compared to the upper atmospheric source region, which is the result of oxidation by OH. In this paper, the sensitivity of 14CO mixing ratio surface measurements to the 3-D OH distribution is assessed with the TM5 model. Simulated 14CO mixing ratios agree within a few molecules 14CO cm¿3 (STP) with existing measurements at five locations worldwide. The simulated cosmogenic 14CO distribution appears mainly sensitive to the assumed upper atmospheric 14C source function, and to a lesser extend to model resolution. As a next step, the sensitivity of 14CO measurements to OH is calculated with the adjoint TM5 model. The results indicate that 14CO measurements taken in the tropics are sensitive to OH in a spatially confined region that varies strongly over time due to meteorological variability. Given measurements with an accuracy of 0.5 molecules 14CO cm¿3 STP, a good characterization of the cosmogenic 14CO fraction, and assuming perfect transport modeling, a single 14CO measurement may constrain OH to 0.2¿0.3×106 molecules OH cm¿3 on time scales of 6 months and spatial scales of 70×70 degrees (latitude×longitude) between the surface and 500 hPa. The sensitivity of 14CO measurements to high latitude OH is about a factor of five higher. This is in contrast with methyl chloroform (MCF) measurements, which show the highest sensitivity to tropical OH, mainly due to the temperature dependent rate constant of the MCF¿OH reaction. A logical next step will be the analysis of existing 14CO measurements in an inverse modeling framework. This paper presents the required mathematical framework for such an analysis

Satellite Chartography of Atmospheric Methane and carbon monoxide from SCIAMACHY onboard ENVISAT

The UV/Vis/near infrared spectrometer SCIAMACHY on board the European ENVISAT satellite enables total column retrieval of atmospheric methane with high sensitivity to the lower troposphere. The vertical column density of methane is converted to column averaged mixing ratio by using carbon dioxide retrievals as proxy for the probed atmospheric column. For this purpose, we apply concurrent total column measurements of CO_2 in combination with modeled column-averaged CO_2 mixing ratios. Possible systematic errors are discussed in detail while the precision error is 1.8% on average. This paper focuses on methane retrievals from January 2003 through December 2004. The measurements with global coverage over continents are compared with model results from the chemistry–transport model TM4. In the retrievals, the north-south gradient as well as regions with enhanced methane levels can be clearly identified. The highest abundances are found in the Red Basin of China, followed by northern South America, the Gangetic plains of India and central parts of Africa. Especially the abundances in northern South America and the Red Basin are generally higher than modeled. Further, we present the seasonal variations within the investigated time period. Peak values in Asia due to rice emissions are observed from August through October. We expand earlier investigations that suggest underestimated emissions in the tropics. It is shown that these underestimations show a seasonal behavior that peaks from August through December. The global measurements may be used for inverse modeling and are thus an important step towards better quantification of the methane budget

Assessing Methane Emissions from Global Space-Borne Observations

In the past two centuries, atmospheric methane has more than doubled and now constitutes 20% of the anthropogenic climate forcing by greenhouse gases. Yet its sources are not well quantified, introducing uncertainties in its global budget. We retrieved the global methane distribution by using spaceborne near-infrared absorption spectroscopy. In addition to the expected latitudinal gradient, we detected large-scale patterns of anthropogenic and natural methane emissions. Furthermore, we observed unexpectedly high methane concentrations over tropical rainforests, revealing that emission inventories considerably underestimated methane sources in these regions during the time period of investigation (August through November 2003)

Tensions experienced by teachers when participating in a professional learning community

Contains fulltext : 199560.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access)29 november 201

Professionele ontwikkeling van leraren:een reviewstudie naar effectieve kenmerken van professionaliseringsinterventies van leraren

Reviewstudie in opdracht van en gesubsidieerd door NWO-PROO (Grant no. 441-080353