The Phase Dynamics of Earthquakes: Implications for Forecasting in Southern California

We analyze the space-time patterns of earthquake occurrence in southern California using a new method that treats earthquakes as a phase dynamical system. The system state vector is used to obtain a probability measure for current and future earthquake occurrence. Thousands of statistical tests indicate the method has considerable forecast skill. We emphasize that the method is not a model, and there are no unconstrained or free parameters to be determined by fits to training data sets.Comment: email: [email protected]

A Regional Climate Change Assessment Program for North America

There are two main uncertainties in determining future climate: the trajectories of future emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols, and the response of the global climate system to any given set of future emissions [Meehl et al., 2007]. These uncertainties normally are elucidated via application of global climate models, which provide information at relatively coarse spatial resolutions. Greater interest in, and concern about, the details of climate change at regional scales has provided the motivation for the application of regional climate models, which introduces additional uncertainty [Christensen et al., 2007a]. These uncertainties in fine-scale regional climate responses, in contrast to uncertainties of coarser spatial resolution global models in which regional models are nested, now have been documented in numerous contexts [Christensen et al., 2007a] and have been found to extend to uncertainties in climate impacts [Wood et al., 2004; Oleson et al., 2007]. While European research in future climate projections has moved forward systematically to examine combined uncertainties from global and regional models [Christensen et al., 2007b], North American climate programs have lagged behind

Surface Temperature Probability Distributions in the NARCCAP Hindcast Experiment: Evaluation Methodology, Metrics, and Results

Methodology is developed and applied to evaluate the characteristics of daily surface temperature distributions in a six-member regional climate model (RCM) hindcast experiment conducted as part of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). A surface temperature dataset combining gridded station observations and reanalysis is employed as the primary reference. Temperature biases are documented across the distribution, focusing on the median and tails. Temperature variance is generally higher in the RCMs than reference, while skewness is reasonably simulated in winter over the entire domain and over the western United States and Canada in summer. Substantial differences in skewness exist over the southern and eastern portions of the domain in summer. Four examples with observed long-tailed probability distribution functions (PDFs) are selected for model comparison. Long cold tails in the winter are simulated with high fidelity for Seattle, Washington, and Chicago, Illinois. In summer, theRCMs are unable to capture the distribution width and long warm tails for the coastal location of Los Angeles, California, while long cold tails are poorly realized for Houston, Texas. The evaluation results are repeated using two additional reanalysis products adjusted by station observations and two standard reanalysis products to assess the impact of observational uncertainty. Results are robust when compared with those obtained using the adjusted reanalysis products as reference, while larger uncertainties are introduced when standard reanalysis is employed as reference. Model biases identified in this work will allow for further investigation into associated mechanisms and implications for future simulations of temperature extremes

Gender Differences in a Mouse Model of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Revealed Using Multi-Modal Imaging

The worldwide incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) continues to rise, in part due to poor diet, limited exercise, and alcohol abuse. Numerous studies have suggested that the loss or mutation of PTEN plays a critical role in HCC tumorigenesis through the activation of the PI3K/Akt signaling axis. The homozygous knockout of PTEN in the livers of mice results in the accumulation of fat (steatosis), inflammation, fibrosis, and eventually progression to HCC. This phenotype bears a striking similarity to non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) which is thought to occupy an intermediate stage between non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), fibrosis, and HCC. The molecular and physiological phenotypes that manifest during the transition to HCC suggest that molecular imaging could provide a non-invasive screening platform to identify the hallmarks of HCC initiation prior to the presentation of clinical disease. We have carried out longitudinal imaging studies on the liver-specific PTEN knockout mouse model using CT, MRI, and multi-tracer PET to interrogate liver size, steatosis, inflammation, and apoptosis. In male PTEN knockout mice, significant steatosis was observed as early as 3 months using both magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS) and computed tomography (CT). Enhanced uptake of the apoptosis tracer 18F-TBD was also observed in the livers of male PTEN homozygous knockout mice between 3 and 4 months of age relative to heterozygous knockout controls. Liver uptake of the inflammation tracer [18F]4FN remained relatively low and constant over 7 months in male PTEN homozygous knockout mice, suggesting the suppression of high-energy ROS/RNS with PTEN deletion relative to heterozygous males where the [18F]4FN liver uptake was elevated at early and late time points. All male PTEN homozygous mice developed HCC lesions by month 10. In contrast to the male cohort, only 20% (2 out of 10) of female PTEN homozygous knockout mice developed HCC lesions by month 10. Steatosis was significantly less pronounced in the female PTEN homozygous knockout mice relative to males and could not accurately predict the eventual occurrence of HCC. As with the males, the [18F]4FN uptake in female PTEN homozygous knockout mice was low and constant throughout the time course. The liver uptake of 18F-TBD at 3 and 4.5 months was higher in the two female PTEN knockout mice that would eventually develop HCC and was the most predictive imaging biomarker for HCC in the female cohort. These studies demonstrate the diagnostic and prognostic role of multi-modal imaging in HCC mouse models and provide compelling evidence that disease progression in the PTEN knockout model is highly dependent on gender

Precision measurements of the total and partial widths of the psi(2S) charmonium meson with a new complementary-scan technique in antiproton-proton annihilations

We present new precision measurements of the psi(2S) total and partial widths from excitation curves obtained in antiproton-proton annihilations by Fermilab experiment E835 at the Antiproton Accumulator in the year 2000. A new technique of complementary scans was developed to study narrow resonances with stochastically cooled antiproton beams. The technique relies on precise revolution-frequency and orbit-length measurements, while making the analysis of the excitation curve almost independent of machine lattice parameters. We study the psi(2S) meson through the processes pbar p -> e+ e- and pbar p -> J/psi + X -> e+ e- + X. We measure the width to be Gamma = 290 +- 25(sta) +- 4(sys) keV and the combination of partial widths Gamma_e+e- * Gamma_pbarp / Gamma = 579 +- 38(sta) +- 36(sys) meV, which represent the most precise measurements to date.Comment: 17 pages, 3 figures, 3 tables. Final manuscript accepted for publication in Phys. Lett. B. Parts of the text slightly expanded or rearranged; results are unchange

Nonlinear Network Dynamics on Earthquake Fault Systems

Earthquake faults occur in networks that have dynamical modes not displayed by single isolated faults. Using simulations of the network of strike-slip faults in southern California, we find that the physics depends critically on both the interactions among the faults, which are determined by the geometry of the fault network, as well as on the stress dissipation properties of the nonlinear frictional physics, similar to the dynamics of integrate-and-fire neural networks.Comment: 12 pages, 4 figure

An investigation of pressure ulcer risk, comfort and pain in medical imaging

In this study, we investigated the interface pressure of healthy volunteers on medical imaging (MI) table surfaces to determine the risks of developing pressure ulcers (PU). We also investigated volunteers’ perception of pain and comfort while lying on the MI table surfaces. Evidence from this study will enhance the understanding of factors contributing to PU formation and help improve service delivery to patients undergoing MI procedures

A Study of \bar{p}p -> Two Neutral Pseudoscalar Mesons at the chi_c0(1^3P_0) Formation Energy

Fermilab experiment E835 has studied reactions \bar{p}p -> pi0 pi0, pi0 eta, eta eta, pi0 eta' and eta eta' in the energy region of the chi_c0(1^3P_0) from 3340 MeV to 3470 MeV. Interference between resonant and continuum production is observed in the pi0 pi0 and eta eta channels, and the product of the input and output branching fractions is measured. Limits on resonant production are set for the pi0 eta and pi0 eta' channels. An indication of interference is observed in the eta eta' channel. The technique for extracting resonance parameters in an environment dominated by continuum production is described.Comment: 15 pages, 21 figures, submitted Phys. Rev.

Measurement of the Resonance Parameters of the χ1(13P1)\chi_{1}(1^3P_1) and χ2(13P2)\chi_{2}(1^3P_2) States of Charmonium formed in Antiproton-Proton Annihilations

We have studied the $^3P_J$ ($\chi_c)$ states of charmonium in formation by antiproton-proton annihilations in experiment E835 at the Fermilab Antiproton Source. We report new measurements of the mass, width, and $B(\chi_{cJ} \to \bar{p} p) \times \Gamma(\chi_{cJ} \to J/\psi + anything)$ for the $\chi_{c1}$ and $\chi_{c2}$ by means of the inclusive reaction $\bar{p}p \to \chi_{cJ} \to J/\psi + anything \to (e^{+}e^{-}) +anything$. Using the subsample of events where $\chi_{cJ} \to \gamma + J/\psi \to \gamma + (e^{+}e^{-})$ is fully reconstructed, we derive $B(\chi_{cJ} \to \bar p p)\times \Gamma(\chi_{cJ} \to J/\psi + \gamma)$. We summarize the results of the E760 (updated) and E835 measurements of mass, width and $B(\chi_{cJ} \to \bar{p}p) \Gamma(\chi_{cJ} \to J/\psi+\gamma)$ (J=0,1,2) and discuss the significance of these measurements